no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 50%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 23 – DET 23 · DET -0.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DET +0.25opened -1.5
DET −0.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | DET | NE |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
49.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
DET · 6
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Juice Scruggs | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Blake Miller | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · DET defense
NE 2.9 #24
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
Red zoneDET offense · NE defense
DET 70% #5
NE #27 69%
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · DET defense
NE 262 #4
DET #21 237
NE
Red zoneNE offense · DET defense
NE 66% #9
DET #23 68%
NE
Pass attackNE offense · DET defense
NE +0.29 #1
DET #14 -0.01
NE
3rd downDET offense · NE defense
DET 39% #20
NE #11 39%
NE
Run gameDET offense · NE defense
DET -0.04 #24
NE #15 -0.03
DET
Pass attackDET offense · NE defense
DET +0.17 #4
NE #11 -0.06
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · NE defense
DET 2.1 #15
NE #22 2.0
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · NE defense
DET 269 #3
NE #9 207
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · DET defense
NE 127 #6
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
NE
Run gameNE offense · DET defense
NE +0.01 #13
DET #18 -0.01
NE
Run block vs frontDET offense · NE defense
DET 125 #10
NE #6 101
NE
3rd downNE offense · DET defense
NE 44% #6
DET #9 37%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +13
#14 -0.01
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +17
#21 237
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +8
#14 115
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#6 2.8
44% #6
3rd down
even
#9 37%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +14
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +22
DETpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#72
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#92
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
NErun block
even
DETrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#388
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#435
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#242
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#123
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +9
#15 -0.03
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#9 207
120 #14
Rush yards
DEF +8
#6 102
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +9
#11 39%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +22
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#20
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#127
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
DETrun block
even
NErun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#274
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#178
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#69
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#263
Christian Elliss LILB
—
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101