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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 09:30 · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · dome · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 1 – 0 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 50% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 23 – DET 23 · DET -0.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET +0.25opened -1.5
DET −0.1
5/10
at the line
bookDETNE
SCORE
CZR
DK
FD
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
SCORE
CZR
DK
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass pro vs rushNE offense · DET defense RUSH +22 NE 2.9 #24 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Red zoneDET offense · NE defense OFF +22 DET 70% #5 NE #27 69%
NE Pass yardsNE offense · DET defense OFF +17 NE 262 #4 DET #21 237
NE Red zoneNE offense · DET defense OFF +14 NE 66% #9 DET #23 68%
NE Pass attackNE offense · DET defense OFF +13 NE +0.29 #1 DET #14 -0.01
NE 3rd downDET offense · NE defense DEF +9 DET 39% #20 NE #11 39%
NE Run gameDET offense · NE defense DEF +9 DET -0.04 #24 NE #15 -0.03
DET Pass attackDET offense · NE defense OFF +7 DET +0.17 #4 NE #11 -0.06
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · NE defense LINE +7 DET 2.1 #15 NE #22 2.0
DET Pass yardsDET offense · NE defense OFF +6 DET 269 #3 NE #9 207
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · DET defense LINE +6 NE 127 #6 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
NE Run gameNE offense · DET defense OFF +5 NE +0.01 #13 DET #18 -0.01
NE Run block vs frontDET offense · NE defense FRONT +4 DET 125 #10 NE #6 101
NE 3rd downNE offense · DET defense OFF +3 NE 44% #6 DET #9 37%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

DET DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DET DEFENSE
+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +13 #14 -0.01
+0.01 #13 Run game even #18 -0.01
262 #4 Pass yards OFF +17 #21 237
129 #6 Rush yards OFF +8 #14 115
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush DEF +18 #6 2.8
44% #6 3rd down even #9 37%
66% #9 Red zone OFF +14 #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro rush +22 DETpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#72
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#92
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
NErun block even DETrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#388
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#435
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#242
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#123
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111