New England Patriots
@
Detroit Lions
MODEL DET 51%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 09:30
· FC Bayern Munich Stadium (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 1 – 0 DET
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
DET OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +13
#14 -0.01
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +17
#21 237
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +8
#14 115
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#5 2.8
44% #6
3rd down
even
#9 37%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +14
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +9
#15 -0.03
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#9 207
120 #14
Rush yards
DEF +8
#6 102
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +9
#11 39%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +22
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.0
DET PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #14 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #18 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #14 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #14 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #14 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #14 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #11 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #15 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #11 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #11 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #11 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #11 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.