Houston Texans
@
Cleveland Browns
MODEL CLE 37%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00
· Huntington Bank Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 1 – 3 CLE
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
CLE OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +11
#4 -0.13
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +25
#5 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +11
#3 189
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#16 116
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +16
#8 37%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +11
#20 66%
CLE OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +31
#1 -0.19
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +17
#8 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +24
#7 205
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +23
#4 94
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#7 2.8
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +21
#7 37%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +12
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.8
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 3.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #4 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #5 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #4 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #4 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #4 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #4 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #1 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #8 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #1 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #1 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #1 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #1 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.