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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 1 – 3 CLE
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out    CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 41% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – CLE 19 · HOU -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Brownsspread · margin, last 10
CLE +4.5
CLE +3.1
5/10
at the line
bookCLEHOU
DK
CZR
Brownstotal · points in the game, last 10
38.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
CLE · 10
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
Dylan SampsonRBQUESTIONABLEKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Pass attackCLE offense · HOU defense DEF +31 CLE -0.29 #32 HOU #1 -0.19
CLE Run gameHOU offense · CLE defense DEF +25 HOU -0.08 #30 CLE #5 -0.05
HOU Pass yardsCLE offense · HOU defense DEF +24 CLE 185 #31 HOU #7 205
HOU Run block vs frontCLE offense · HOU defense FRONT +24 CLE 96 #27 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
HOU 3rd downCLE offense · HOU defense DEF +21 CLE 34% #28 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · HOU defense RUSH +21 CLE 3.3 #30 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
HOU Run gameCLE offense · HOU defense DEF +17 CLE -0.05 #25 HOU #8 -0.05
CLE 3rd downHOU offense · CLE defense DEF +16 HOU 38% #24 CLE #8 37%
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
HOU Red zoneCLE offense · HOU defense DEF +12 CLE 55% #28 HOU #16 63%
CLE Pass attackHOU offense · CLE defense DEF +11 HOU +0.04 #15 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Pass yardsHOU offense · CLE defense DEF +11 HOU 233 #14 CLE #3 189
CLE Red zoneHOU offense · CLE defense DEF +11 HOU 51% #31 CLE #20 66%
CLE Run block vs frontHOU offense · CLE defense FRONT +5 HOU 111 #23 CLE #18 118
CLE Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · CLE defense RUSH +4 HOU 2.0 #12 CLE #8 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

CLE DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC CLE DEFENSE

CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack DEF +11 #4 -0.13
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +25 #5 -0.05
233 #14 Pass yards DEF +11 #3 189
109 #22 Rush yards even #16 116
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #3 3.1
38% #24 3rd down DEF +16 #8 37%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +11 #20 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even CLEpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jared Verse DE 7.5 sk#31
Maliek Collins DT 6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE 5.0 sk#71
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
HOUrun block even CLErun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Isaiah McGuire LDE 8.0 tfl#75
Mason Graham LDT 7.0 tfl#115
Maliek Collins RDT 7.0 tfl#104
Jared Verse RDE 11.0 tfl#31
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118