no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 41%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – CLE 19 · HOU -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CLE +4.5
CLE +3.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | CLE | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
38.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 5
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
CLE · 10
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Pass attackCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE -0.29 #32
HOU #1 -0.19
CLE
Run gameHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU -0.08 #30
CLE #5 -0.05
HOU
Pass yardsCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE 185 #31
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run block vs frontCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE 96 #27
HOU #3 93
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
HOU
3rd downCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE 34% #28
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE 3.3 #30
HOU #9 2.6
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
HOU
Run gameCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE -0.05 #25
HOU #8 -0.05
CLE
3rd downHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU 38% #24
CLE #8 37%
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
HOU
Red zoneCLE offense · HOU defense
CLE 55% #28
HOU #16 63%
CLE
Pass attackHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU +0.04 #15
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Pass yardsHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU 233 #14
CLE #3 189
CLE
Red zoneHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU 51% #31
CLE #20 66%
CLE
Run block vs frontHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU 111 #23
CLE #18 118
CLE
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · CLE defense
HOU 2.0 #12
CLE #8 2.6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +11
#4 -0.13
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +25
#5 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +11
#3 189
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#16 116
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +16
#8 37%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +11
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
CLEpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#31
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#71
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
HOUrun block
even
CLErun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#75
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#115
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#104
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#31
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
HOU DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +31
#1 -0.19
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +17
#8 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +24
#7 205
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +23
#4 94
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#7 2.8
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +21
#7 37%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +12
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +21
HOUpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#10
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#22
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
CLErun block
front +24
HOUrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#158
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#188
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#63
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93