no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out TEN Nicholas Singleton RB out · Jaren Kanak TE out
TEN win probability
ours 33%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – TEN 20 · JAX -5.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN +2.75
TEN +5.7
2/10
—at the line
| book | TEN | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
| Quinn Ewers | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Bryan Thomas Jr. | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Wesley Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Daniel Faalele | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| Jalen Huskey | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
TEN · 14
| Nicholas Singleton | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaren Kanak | TE | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
12 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jackie Marshall | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Atonio Mafi | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jaylen Harrell | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Owen Pappoe | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Run block vs frontTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN 93 #30
JAX #1 86
JAX
Pass attackTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN -0.22 #31
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX +0.06 #11
TEN #29 +0.17
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX 65% #12
TEN #30 71%
JAX
3rd downTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN 32% #32
JAX #17 41%
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX 237 #11
TEN #26 248
JAX
Run gameTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN -0.06 #27
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass yardsTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN 191 #29
JAX #19 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
TEN
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX 2.4 #20
TEN #12 2.5
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN
Run block vs frontJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX 115 #20
TEN #14 115
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX -0.00 #17
TEN #23 +0.02
TEN
Red zoneTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN 61% #20
JAX #25 68%
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · TEN defense
JAX 40% #18
TEN #21 42%
JAX
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · JAX defense
TEN 3.3 #27
JAX #27 1.9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +18
#29 +0.17
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#23 +0.02
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +15
#26 248
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#15 115
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#21 42%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +18
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
rush +8
TENpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#33
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#66
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
JAXrun block
even
TENrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#132
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#631
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#163
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#105
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 115
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
JAX DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +28
#3 -0.14
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +14
#13 -0.04
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +10
#19 231
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +29
#1 86
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +15
#17 41%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#26
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#109
3.3 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
TENrun block
front +29
JAXrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#100
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#346
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#23
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#175
93 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86