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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 7 – 3 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out    TEN Nicholas Singleton RB out · Jaren Kanak TE out
TEN win probability
ours 33% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – TEN 20 · JAX -5.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN +2.75
TEN +5.7
2/10
at the line
bookTENJAC
DK
CZR
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
Quinn EwersQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner KoziolTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Bryan Thomas Jr.DEOUTCoach's Decision
Wesley WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Daniel FaaleleGOUTCoach's Decision
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
Jalen HuskeySOUTCoach's Decision
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
TEN · 14
Nicholas SingletonRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaren KanakTEOUTPectoral · IR
12 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jackie MarshallDTOUTCoach's Decision
Atonio MafiGOUTCoach's Decision
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jaylen HarrellLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Owen PappoeLBOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOTOUTCoach's Decision
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Run block vs frontTEN offense · JAX defense FRONT +29 TEN 93 #30 JAX #1 86
JAX Pass attackTEN offense · JAX defense DEF +28 TEN -0.22 #31 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · TEN defense OFF +18 JAX +0.06 #11 TEN #29 +0.17
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · TEN defense OFF +18 JAX 65% #12 TEN #30 71%
JAX 3rd downTEN offense · JAX defense DEF +15 TEN 32% #32 JAX #17 41%
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · TEN defense OFF +15 JAX 237 #11 TEN #26 248
JAX Run gameTEN offense · JAX defense DEF +14 TEN -0.06 #27 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass yardsTEN offense · JAX defense DEF +10 TEN 191 #29 JAX #19 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
TEN Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · TEN defense RUSH +8 JAX 2.4 #20 TEN #12 2.5 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN Run block vs frontJAX offense · TEN defense FRONT +6 JAX 115 #20 TEN #14 115 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
JAX Run gameJAX offense · TEN defense OFF +6 JAX -0.00 #17 TEN #23 +0.02
TEN Red zoneTEN offense · JAX defense OFF +5 TEN 61% #20 JAX #25 68%
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · TEN defense OFF +3 JAX 40% #18 TEN #21 42%
JAX Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · JAX defense RUSH +0 TEN 3.3 #27 JAX #27 1.9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

TEN DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +18 #29 +0.17
-0.00 #17 Run game even #23 +0.02
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +15 #26 248
115 #20 Rush yards even #15 115
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
40% #18 3rd down even #21 42%
65% #12 Red zone OFF +18 #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro rush +8 TENpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#33
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#66
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
JAXrun block even TENrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#132
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#631
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#163
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#105
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 115