Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Tennessee Titans
DIV
MODEL TEN 36%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 7 – 3 TEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
TEN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +18
#29 +0.17
-0.01 #18
Run game
even
#23 +0.01
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +15
#26 248
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#15 115
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#21 42%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +18
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +28
#3 -0.14
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +14
#13 -0.04
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +10
#19 231
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +29
#1 86
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +15
#17 41%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 1.9
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #29 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #23 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #29 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #29 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #29 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #29 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #3 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #13 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #3 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #3 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #3 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #3 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.