no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 30%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 25 – ATL 18 · KC -7.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +4
ATL +7.0
7/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 3:45 PM
KC · 5
| Jeff Caldwell | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
ATL · 8
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
| |||
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Storm Norton | OT | OUT | Foot |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC
Run gameKC offense · ATL defense
KC +0.03 #6
ATL #25 +0.03
ATL
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · ATL defense
KC 2.8 #23
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · KC defense
ATL 1.9 #9
KC #24 1.9
KC
Pass yardsATL offense · KC defense
ATL 218 #20
KC #8 205
ATL
Red zoneKC offense · ATL defense
KC 58% #25
ATL #13 62%
KC
Run gameATL offense · KC defense
ATL -0.03 #23
KC #11 -0.04
ATL
Run block vs frontKC offense · ATL defense
KC 107 #25
ATL #16 116
ATL
3rd downKC offense · ATL defense
KC 38% #23
ATL #15 40%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
KC
Red zoneATL offense · KC defense
ATL 65% #13
KC #6 55%
KC
Pass attackATL offense · KC defense
ATL -0.01 #21
KC #15 -0.00
KC
3rd downATL offense · KC defense
ATL 34% #30
KC #28 44%
KC
Run block vs frontATL offense · KC defense
ATL 125 #9
KC #7 106
ATL
Pass attackKC offense · ATL defense
KC +0.04 #14
ATL #13 -0.03
ATL
Pass yardsKC offense · ATL defense
KC 232 #16
ATL #15 222
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +19
#25 +0.03
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#15 222
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#2 3.4
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +8
#15 40%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +12
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +18
ATLpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#23
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#56
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
KCrun block
front +9
ATLrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#141
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#454
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +12
#11 -0.04
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +12
#8 205
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#26 1.9
34% #30
3rd down
even
#28 44%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
line +15
KCpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#43
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#53
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#198
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
ATLrun block
even
KCrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#37
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#22
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#391
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#44
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106