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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 1 – 0 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 30% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 25 – ATL 18 · KC -7.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +4
ATL +7.0
7/10
at the line
bookATLKAN
DK
CZR
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 3:45 PM
KC · 5
Jeff CaldwellWROUTKnee · IR
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
ATL · 8
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Storm NortonOTOUTFoot
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC Run gameKC offense · ATL defense OFF +19 KC +0.03 #6 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL Pass pro vs rushKC offense · ATL defense RUSH +18 KC 2.8 #23 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · KC defense LINE +15 ATL 1.9 #9 KC #24 1.9
KC Pass yardsATL offense · KC defense DEF +12 ATL 218 #20 KC #8 205
ATL Red zoneKC offense · ATL defense DEF +12 KC 58% #25 ATL #13 62%
KC Run gameATL offense · KC defense DEF +12 ATL -0.03 #23 KC #11 -0.04
ATL Run block vs frontKC offense · ATL defense FRONT +9 KC 107 #25 ATL #16 116
ATL 3rd downKC offense · ATL defense DEF +8 KC 38% #23 ATL #15 40%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
KC Red zoneATL offense · KC defense DEF +7 ATL 65% #13 KC #6 55%
KC Pass attackATL offense · KC defense DEF +6 ATL -0.01 #21 KC #15 -0.00
KC 3rd downATL offense · KC defense DEF +2 ATL 34% #30 KC #28 44%
KC Run block vs frontATL offense · KC defense FRONT +2 ATL 125 #9 KC #7 106
ATL Pass attackKC offense · ATL defense DEF +1 KC +0.04 #14 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Pass yardsKC offense · ATL defense DEF +1 KC 232 #16 ATL #15 222

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ATL DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack even #13 -0.03
+0.03 #6 Run game OFF +19 #25 +0.03
232 #16 Pass yards even #15 222
107 #25 Rush yards even #24 126
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush DEF +20 #2 3.4
38% #23 3rd down DEF +8 #15 40%
58% #25 Red zone DEF +12 #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro rush +18 ATLpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#23
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#56
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
KCrun block front +9 ATLrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#141
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#454
Kendal Daniels LILB
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116