Kansas City Chiefs
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 49%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 1 – 0 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
ATL OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +19
#25 +0.03
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#15 222
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#2 3.4
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +8
#15 40%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +12
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +12
#11 -0.04
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +12
#8 205
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#26 1.9
34% #30
3rd down
even
#28 44%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 1.9
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #13 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #25 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #13 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #13 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #13 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #13 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #15 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #11 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #15 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #15 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #15 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #15 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.