no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out
PHI win probability
ours 66%
book 59%
47%
77%
book is 7 pts lower
projected DAL 22 – PHI 27 · PHI -5.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -3
PHI −5.3
4/9
—at the line
| book | PHI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
59.3%
ours 65.5%
6/10
PHI+6.2 pts vs book
| book | PHI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DAL · 12
| Israel Abanikanda | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| Camden Brown | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Caelen Carson | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Tyrus Wheat | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ajani Cornelius | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
PHI · 11
| Cole Payton | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner McKee | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Moore | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Micah Morris | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Marcus Epps | S | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 6.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 74% #2
DAL #31 72%
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI +0.04 #13
DAL #31 +0.22
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · DAL defense
PHI +0.01 #14
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 43% #8
PHI #22 42%
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 2.1 #12
DAL #25 2.0
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 126 #9
PHI #22 124
PHI
3rd downPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 38% #21
DAL #31 48%
PHI
Pass yardsPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 206 #23
DAL #32 266
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
PHI
Red zoneDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 62% #17
PHI #10 59%
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 279 #1
PHI #6 204
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 117 #18
DAL #23 125
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL +0.01 #15
PHI #16 -0.02
PHI
Pass attackDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL +0.16 #5
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 1.8 #11
PHI #11 2.5
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
279 #1
Pass yards
even
#6 204
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +13
#22 124
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +14
#22 42%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#49
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#52
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#81
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.5
DALrun block
line +13
PHIrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#203
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#138
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#522
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#121
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#452
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +18
#31 +0.22
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +17
#31 +0.09
206 #23
Pass yards
OFF +9
#32 266
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#23 125
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#25 2.0
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +10
#31 48%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +29
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
line +13
DALpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#30
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#59
2.1 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 2.0
PHIrun block
even
DALrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#50
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#342
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#160
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#101
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#533
117 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125