no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
TEN win probability
ours 46%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CLE 22 – TEN 20 · CLE -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN -2.75
TEN +1.3
1/10
—at the line
| book | TEN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
40.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
CLE · 9
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE
Pass attackTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN -0.22 #31
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Pass yardsTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN 191 #29
CLE #3 189
CLE
3rd downTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN 32% #32
CLE #8 37%
CLE
Run gameTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN -0.06 #27
CLE #5 -0.05
CLE
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN 3.2 #29
CLE #8 2.6
CLE
Run block vs frontTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN 91 #31
CLE #18 118
TEN
Run block vs frontCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE 96 #27
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
TEN
3rd downCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE 34% #28
TEN #21 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
TEN
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE 3.3 #30
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN
Pass yardsCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE 185 #31
TEN #26 248
TEN
Pass attackCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE -0.29 #32
TEN #29 +0.17
CLE
Red zoneCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE 55% #28
TEN #30 71%
TEN
Run gameCLE offense · TEN defense
CLE -0.05 #25
TEN #23 +0.02
CLE
Red zoneTEN offense · CLE defense
TEN 61% #20
CLE #20 66%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#23 +0.02
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#26 248
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +12
#15 115
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#13 2.5
34% #28
3rd down
even
#21 42%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
even
TENpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#34
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#59
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
CLErun block
front +8
TENrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#146
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#589
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#203
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#94
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +27
#4 -0.13
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +22
#5 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +26
#3 189
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +14
#16 116
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +24
#3 3.1
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +24
#8 37%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +21
CLEpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#31
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#71
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
TENrun block
front +13
CLErun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#75
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#115
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#104
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#31
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118