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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 1 – 1 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
TEN win probability
ours 46% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CLE 22 – TEN 20 · CLE -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN -2.75
TEN +1.3
1/10
at the line
bookTENCLE
DK
CZR
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
CLE · 9
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE Pass attackTEN offense · CLE defense DEF +27 TEN -0.22 #31 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Pass yardsTEN offense · CLE defense DEF +26 TEN 191 #29 CLE #3 189
CLE 3rd downTEN offense · CLE defense DEF +24 TEN 32% #32 CLE #8 37%
CLE Run gameTEN offense · CLE defense DEF +22 TEN -0.06 #27 CLE #5 -0.05
CLE Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · CLE defense RUSH +21 TEN 3.2 #29 CLE #8 2.6
CLE Run block vs frontTEN offense · CLE defense FRONT +13 TEN 91 #31 CLE #18 118
TEN Run block vs frontCLE offense · TEN defense FRONT +8 CLE 96 #27 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
TEN 3rd downCLE offense · TEN defense DEF +7 CLE 34% #28 TEN #21 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
TEN Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · TEN defense RUSH +5 CLE 3.3 #30 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN Pass yardsCLE offense · TEN defense DEF +5 CLE 185 #31 TEN #26 248
TEN Pass attackCLE offense · TEN defense DEF +3 CLE -0.29 #32 TEN #29 +0.17
CLE Red zoneCLE offense · TEN defense OFF +2 CLE 55% #28 TEN #30 71%
TEN Run gameCLE offense · TEN defense DEF +2 CLE -0.05 #25 TEN #23 +0.02
CLE Red zoneTEN offense · CLE defense DEF +0 TEN 61% #20 CLE #20 66%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

TEN DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack even #29 +0.17
-0.05 #25 Run game even #23 +0.02
185 #31 Pass yards even #26 248
97 #27 Rush yards DEF +12 #15 115
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush DEF +13 #13 2.5
34% #28 3rd down even #21 42%
55% #28 Red zone even #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro even TENpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#34
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#59
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
CLErun block front +8 TENrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#146
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#589
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#203
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#94
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120