no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 35%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 25 – LV 20 · LAR -5.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LV +8
LV +5.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | LV | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
3rd downLV offense · LAR defense
LV 34% #29
LAR #6 36%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · LV defense
LAR +0.23 #2
LV #22 +0.08
LAR
Run gameLV offense · LAR defense
LV -0.26 #32
LAR #12 -0.04
LAR
Pass attackLV offense · LAR defense
LV -0.19 #29
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Red zoneLV offense · LAR defense
LV 56% #27
LAR #8 56%
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · LV defense
LAR 40% #16
LV #30 47%
LAR
Run block vs frontLV offense · LAR defense
LV 83 #32
LAR #20 120
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · LV defense
LAR 277 #2
LV #13 214
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · LAR defense
LV 3.2 #27
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · LV defense
LAR +0.03 #7
LV #14 -0.04
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · LV defense
LAR 1.1 #1
LV #7 2.8
LAR
Pass yardsLV offense · LAR defense
LV 195 #26
LAR #20 235
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · LV defense
LAR 68% #6
LV #11 59%
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · LV defense
LAR 126 #8
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +20
#22 +0.08
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +11
#13 214
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +10
#17 117
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#21 2.1
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +14
#30 47%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
even
LVpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#82
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#105
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LARrun block
even
LVrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#188
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#99
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +19
#10 -0.07
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +20
#12 -0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#20 235
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +20
#12 111
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#9 2.8
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +23
#6 36%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +19
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
rush +9
LARpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#35
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
LVrun block
front +12
LARrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#52
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#231
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#20
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#69
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120