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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 16:25 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 2 – 0 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 35% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 25 – LV 20 · LAR -5.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV +8
LV +5.1
5/10
at the line
bookLVLAR
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
1/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR 3rd downLV offense · LAR defense DEF +23 LV 34% #29 LAR #6 36%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · LV defense OFF +20 LAR +0.23 #2 LV #22 +0.08
LAR Run gameLV offense · LAR defense DEF +20 LV -0.26 #32 LAR #12 -0.04
LAR Pass attackLV offense · LAR defense DEF +19 LV -0.19 #29 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Red zoneLV offense · LAR defense DEF +19 LV 56% #27 LAR #8 56%
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · LV defense OFF +14 LAR 40% #16 LV #30 47%
LAR Run block vs frontLV offense · LAR defense FRONT +12 LV 83 #32 LAR #20 120
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · LV defense OFF +11 LAR 277 #2 LV #13 214
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
LAR Pass pro vs rushLV offense · LAR defense RUSH +9 LV 3.2 #27 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR Run gameLAR offense · LV defense OFF +7 LAR +0.03 #7 LV #14 -0.04
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · LV defense LINE +6 LAR 1.1 #1 LV #7 2.8
LAR Pass yardsLV offense · LAR defense DEF +6 LV 195 #26 LAR #20 235
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · LV defense OFF +5 LAR 68% #6 LV #11 59%
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · LV defense LINE +3 LAR 126 #8 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack OFF +20 #22 +0.08
+0.03 #7 Run game even #14 -0.04
277 #2 Pass yards OFF +11 #13 214
127 #7 Rush yards OFF +10 #17 117
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush OFF +19 #21 2.1
40% #16 3rd down OFF +14 #30 47%
68% #6 Red zone even #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro even LVpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#82
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#105
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LARrun block even LVrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#188
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#99
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111