BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 16:25 · Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 4 – 6 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 60% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 23 – DET 27 · DET -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET -2.5
DET −3.3
4/10
at the line
bookDETGB
DK
CZR
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
50.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
GB · 6
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass attackDET offense · GB defense OFF +19 DET +0.17 #4 GB #23 +0.08
DET Pass pro vs rushGB offense · DET defense RUSH +12 GB 2.1 #14 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Red zoneDET offense · GB defense OFF +12 DET 70% #5 GB #17 64%
GB Pass attackGB offense · DET defense OFF +11 GB +0.23 #3 DET #14 -0.01
DET Run block vs frontGB offense · DET defense FRONT +9 GB 114 #21 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
GB 3rd downGB offense · DET defense OFF +7 GB 49% #2 DET #9 37%
DET Pass yardsDET offense · GB defense OFF +7 DET 269 #3 GB #10 207
GB Red zoneGB offense · DET defense OFF +7 GB 63% #16 DET #23 68%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
GB Run gameDET offense · GB defense DEF +7 DET -0.04 #24 GB #17 -0.02
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · GB defense LINE +5 DET 125 #10 GB #15 116
GB 3rd downDET offense · GB defense DEF +4 DET 39% #20 GB #16 41%
GB Pass yardsGB offense · DET defense OFF +3 GB 226 #18 DET #21 237
GB Pass pro vs rushDET offense · GB defense RUSH +1 DET 2.1 #15 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
DET Run gameGB offense · DET defense DEF +1 GB -0.01 #19 DET #18 -0.01

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

DET DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DET DEFENSE
+0.23 #3 Pass attack OFF +11 #14 -0.01
-0.01 #19 Run game even #18 -0.01
226 #18 Pass yards even #21 237
120 #15 Rush yards even #14 115
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush even #6 2.8
49% #2 3rd down even #9 37%
63% #16 Red zone even #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro rush +12 DETpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#100
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
GBrun block front +9 DETrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#11
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#369
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#443
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#230
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#132
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111