Green Bay Packers
@
Detroit Lions
DIV
MODEL DET 60%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 16:25
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 4 – 6 DET
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
DET OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +11
#14 -0.01
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#21 237
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#14 115
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#9 37%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +8
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +18
#22 +0.08
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#10 207
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#16 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +12
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.1
DET PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #14 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #18 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #14 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #14 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #14 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #14 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #22 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #17 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #22 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #22 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #22 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #22 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.