no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 60%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 23 – DET 27 · DET -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DET -2.5
DET −3.3
4/10
—at the line
| book | DET | GB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
50.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
DET · 6
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Juice Scruggs | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Blake Miller | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass attackDET offense · GB defense
DET +0.17 #4
GB #23 +0.08
DET
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · DET defense
GB 2.1 #14
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
Red zoneDET offense · GB defense
DET 70% #5
GB #17 64%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · DET defense
GB +0.23 #3
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Run block vs frontGB offense · DET defense
GB 114 #21
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
GB
3rd downGB offense · DET defense
GB 49% #2
DET #9 37%
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · GB defense
DET 269 #3
GB #10 207
GB
Red zoneGB offense · DET defense
GB 63% #16
DET #23 68%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
GB
Run gameDET offense · GB defense
DET -0.04 #24
GB #17 -0.02
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · GB defense
DET 125 #10
GB #15 116
GB
3rd downDET offense · GB defense
DET 39% #20
GB #16 41%
GB
Pass yardsGB offense · DET defense
GB 226 #18
DET #21 237
GB
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · GB defense
DET 2.1 #15
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
DET
Run gameGB offense · DET defense
GB -0.01 #19
DET #18 -0.01
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +11
#14 -0.01
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#21 237
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#14 115
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#9 37%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
rush +12
DETpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#100
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
GBrun block
front +9
DETrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#11
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#369
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#443
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#230
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#132
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +19
#23 +0.08
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#10 207
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#16 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +12
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#105
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#110
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
DETrun block
even
GBrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#571
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#161
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#316
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#225
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116