Denver Broncos
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 43%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 16:05
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 0 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +18
#27 +0.15
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#24 243
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +9
#25 127
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#29 1.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +20
#29 45%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +11
#6 -0.12
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +18
#10 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#11 212
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +29
#2 91
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +27
#1 4.0
42% #12
3rd down
DEF +10
#2 34%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +25
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 4.0
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #27 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #21 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #27 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #27 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #27 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #27 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #6 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #10 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #6 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #6 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #6 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #6 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.