no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Caleb Lohner TE out ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 41%
book 24%
17%
47%
book is 17 pts lower
projected DEN 24 – ARI 21 · DEN -3.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +7.25
ARI +3.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
9/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
24.3%
ours 40.8%
1/10
ARI+16.5 pts vs book
| book | ARI | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 7
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Deiter | C | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Matt Henningsen | DE | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
ARI · 12
| Carson Beck | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Trey Benson | RB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Reggie Virgil | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Andrew Billings | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 16.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Run block vs frontARI offense · DEN defense
ARI 93 #31
DEN #2 91
DEN
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DEN defense
ARI 3.5 #28
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN 1.4 #3
ARI #29 1.8
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #8
DEN
Red zoneARI offense · DEN defense
ARI 56% #26
DEN #1 48%
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN 43% #9
ARI #29 45%
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN +0.08 #9
ARI #27 +0.15
DEN
Run gameARI offense · DEN defense
ARI -0.06 #28
DEN #10 -0.04
DEN
Pass attackARI offense · DEN defense
ARI +0.00 #17
DEN #6 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
DEN
3rd downARI offense · DEN defense
ARI 42% #12
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Run block vs frontDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN 119 #16
ARI #25 127
DEN
Pass yardsDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN 231 #17
ARI #24 243
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · DEN defense
ARI 256 #5
DEN #11 212
DEN
Red zoneDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN 63% #15
ARI #21 67%
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · ARI defense
DEN +0.00 #16
ARI #21 +0.01
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
ARI DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +18
#27 +0.15
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#24 243
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +9
#25 127
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#29 1.8
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +20
#29 45%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +26
ARIpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#8
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#224
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#237
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
DENrun block
line +9
ARIrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#271
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#192
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#421
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#82
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DEN DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +11
#6 -0.12
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +18
#10 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#11 212
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +29
#2 91
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +27
#1 4.0
42% #12
3rd down
DEF +10
#2 34%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +25
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +27
DENpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#27
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#39
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
ARIrun block
front +29
DENrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#262
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#272
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#183
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#174
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#353
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91