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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 16:05 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 0 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Caleb Lohner TE out    ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 41% book 24%
17%
47%
book is 17 pts lower
projected DEN 24 – ARI 21 · DEN -3.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +7.25
ARI +3.0
4/10
at the line
bookARIDEN
DK
CZR
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
9/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Cardinalsmoneyline · wins, last 10
24.3%
ours 40.8%
1/10
ARI+16.5 pts vs book
bookARIDEN
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 7
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael DeiterCOUTQuadriceps · IR
Matt HenningsenDEOUTAchilles · IR
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
ARI · 12
Carson BeckQBOUTCoach's Decision
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Trey BensonRBOUTKnee · IR
Reggie VirgilWROUTCoach's Decision
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Andrew BillingsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 16.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Run block vs frontARI offense · DEN defense FRONT +29 ARI 93 #31 DEN #2 91
DEN Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DEN defense RUSH +27 ARI 3.5 #28 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · ARI defense LINE +26 DEN 1.4 #3 ARI #29 1.8 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #8
DEN Red zoneARI offense · DEN defense DEF +25 ARI 56% #26 DEN #1 48%
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · ARI defense OFF +20 DEN 43% #9 ARI #29 45%
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · ARI defense OFF +18 DEN +0.08 #9 ARI #27 +0.15
DEN Run gameARI offense · DEN defense DEF +18 ARI -0.06 #28 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN Pass attackARI offense · DEN defense DEF +11 ARI +0.00 #17 DEN #6 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
DEN 3rd downARI offense · DEN defense DEF +10 ARI 42% #12 DEN #2 34%
DEN Run block vs frontDEN offense · ARI defense LINE +9 DEN 119 #16 ARI #25 127
DEN Pass yardsDEN offense · ARI defense OFF +7 DEN 231 #17 ARI #24 243
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · DEN defense OFF +6 ARI 256 #5 DEN #11 212
DEN Red zoneDEN offense · ARI defense OFF +6 DEN 63% #15 ARI #21 67%
DEN Run gameDEN offense · ARI defense OFF +5 DEN +0.00 #16 ARI #21 +0.01

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ARI DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 ARI DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +18 #27 +0.15
+0.00 #16 Run game even #21 +0.01
231 #17 Pass yards even #24 243
119 #16 Rush yards OFF +9 #25 127
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +28 #29 1.8
43% #9 3rd down OFF +20 #29 45%
63% #15 Red zone even #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro line +26 ARIpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#8
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#224
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#237
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
DENrun block line +9 ARIrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#271
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#192
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#421
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#82
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127