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Week 7 · 2026-10-22 · 20:15 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 1 – 1 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out    CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 24 – CHI 24 · CHI -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -1.5
CHI −0.4
7/10
at the line
bookCHINE
DK
CZR
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · CHI defense LINE +21 NE 127 #6 CHI #27 133 Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NE defense LINE +18 CHI 1.5 #4 NE #22 2.0
NE Pass yardsNE offense · CHI defense OFF +18 NE 262 #4 CHI #22 239
NE Pass attackNE offense · CHI defense OFF +17 NE +0.29 #1 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · NE defense OFF +17 CHI 66% #10 NE #27 69%
NE 3rd downNE offense · CHI defense OFF +13 NE 44% #6 CHI #19 41%
CHI Run gameCHI offense · NE defense OFF +11 CHI +0.08 #4 NE #15 -0.03
NE Red zoneNE offense · CHI defense OFF +9 NE 66% #9 CHI #18 65%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NE Run gameNE offense · CHI defense OFF +6 NE +0.01 #13 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI Pass pro vs rushNE offense · CHI defense RUSH +4 NE 2.9 #24 CHI #20 2.0
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · NE defense LINE +4 CHI 161 #2 NE #6 101
NE Pass yardsCHI offense · NE defense DEF +3 CHI 235 #12 NE #9 207
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · NE defense OFF +1 CHI +0.08 #10 NE #11 -0.06
NE 3rd downCHI offense · NE defense DEF +0 CHI 43% #11 NE #11 39%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CHI DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CHI DEFENSE
+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +17 #18 +0.03
+0.01 #13 Run game even #19 +0.00
262 #4 Pass yards OFF +18 #22 239
129 #6 Rush yards OFF +21 #27 135
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush even #22 2.1
44% #6 3rd down OFF +13 #19 41%
66% #9 Red zone OFF +9 #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro even CHIpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#110
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NErun block line +21 CHIrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#15
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#584
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#299
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#399
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#103
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133