no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 24 – CHI 24 · CHI -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -1.5
CHI −0.4
7/10
—at the line
| book | CHI | NE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · CHI defense
NE 127 #6
CHI #27 133
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NE defense
CHI 1.5 #4
NE #22 2.0
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · CHI defense
NE 262 #4
CHI #22 239
NE
Pass attackNE offense · CHI defense
NE +0.29 #1
CHI #18 +0.03
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · NE defense
CHI 66% #10
NE #27 69%
NE
3rd downNE offense · CHI defense
NE 44% #6
CHI #19 41%
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · NE defense
CHI +0.08 #4
NE #15 -0.03
NE
Red zoneNE offense · CHI defense
NE 66% #9
CHI #18 65%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NE
Run gameNE offense · CHI defense
NE +0.01 #13
CHI #19 +0.00
CHI
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · CHI defense
NE 2.9 #24
CHI #20 2.0
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · NE defense
CHI 161 #2
NE #6 101
NE
Pass yardsCHI offense · NE defense
CHI 235 #12
NE #9 207
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · NE defense
CHI +0.08 #10
NE #11 -0.06
NE
3rd downCHI offense · NE defense
CHI 43% #11
NE #11 39%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +17
#18 +0.03
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +18
#22 239
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +21
#27 135
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +13
#19 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +9
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#110
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NErun block
line +21
CHIrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#15
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#584
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#299
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#399
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#103
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +11
#15 -0.03
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#9 207
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#6 102
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#23 2.0
43% #11
3rd down
even
#11 39%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +17
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +18
NEpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#22
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#116
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
CHIrun block
even
NErun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#249
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#168
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#277
Christian Elliss LILB
—
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101