New England Patriots
@
Chicago Bears
MODEL CHI 51%
Week 7 · 2026-10-22 · 20:15
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 1 – 1 CHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +17
#18 +0.03
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +18
#22 239
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +21
#27 135
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +13
#19 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +9
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +11
#15 -0.03
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#9 207
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#6 102
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#25 2.0
43% #11
3rd down
even
#11 39%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +17
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.0
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #18 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #19 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #18 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #18 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #18 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #18 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #11 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #15 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #11 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #11 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #11 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #11 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.