San Francisco 49ers
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 47%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 2 – 1 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
ATL OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +8
#25 +0.03
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +9
#15 222
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#24 126
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#2 3.4
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +14
#15 40%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#23 242
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#32 1.2
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +10
#20 41%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 1.2
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #13 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #25 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #13 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #13 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #13 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #13 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #25 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #22 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #25 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #25 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #25 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #25 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.