no sides on this game yet · the record
SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 28%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 27 – ATL 19 · SF -7.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +4.5
ATL +7.8
8/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SF · 9
| Kurtis Rourke | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan James | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan Watkins | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ephesians Prysock | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Tatum Bethune | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Enrique Cruz Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
ATL · 11
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
| |||
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Malcolm DeWalt IV | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Christian Harris | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ethan Onianwa | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Norton | OT | OUT | Foot |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · SF defense
ATL 1.5 #5
SF #32 0.9
SF
3rd downSF offense · ATL defense
SF 51% #1
ATL #15 40%
SF
3rd downATL offense · SF defense
ATL 34% #30
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · ATL defense
SF 254 #6
ATL #15 222
SF
Run gameSF offense · ATL defense
SF -0.00 #18
ATL #25 +0.03
SF
Pass attackSF offense · ATL defense
SF +0.16 #7
ATL #13 -0.03
SF
Red zoneSF offense · ATL defense
SF 68% #8
ATL #13 62%
ATL
Pass attackATL offense · SF defense
ATL -0.01 #21
SF #25 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · SF defense
ATL 218 #20
SF #23 242
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · SF defense
ATL 126 #8
SF #11 110
SF
Run block vs frontSF offense · ATL defense
SF 114 #22
ATL #24 126
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · SF defense
ATL 65% #13
SF #14 62%
SF
Run gameATL offense · SF defense
ATL -0.03 #23
SF #22 +0.01
ATL
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · ATL defense
SF 1.3 #2
ATL #2 3.4
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +9
#15 222
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#24 126
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#2 3.4
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +14
#15 40%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
even
ATLpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#22
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#51
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.4
SFrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#122
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#155
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#35
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#406
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#23 242
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#32 1.2
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +10
#20 41%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
line +27
SFpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#130
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#139
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#269
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
ATLrun block
even
SFrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#391
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#420
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110