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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 2 – 1 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out · Tua Tagovailoa QB out → Cooper Rush · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 28% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 27 – ATL 19 · SF -7.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +4.5
ATL +7.8
8/10
at the line
bookATLSF
DK
CZR
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SF · 9
Kurtis RourkeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JamesRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan WatkinsWROUTCoach's Decision
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Ephesians PrysockCBOUTCoach's Decision
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
Tatum BethuneLBOUTCoach's Decision
Enrique Cruz Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
ATL · 11
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Tagovailoa: 27 att · 190 pass yds · 95% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Malcolm DeWalt IVCBOUTCoach's Decision
Christian HarrisLBOUTCoach's Decision
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Ethan OnianwaOTOUTCoach's Decision
Storm NortonOTOUTFoot
Da'Shawn HandDTQUESTIONABLEKnee
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · SF defense LINE +27 ATL 1.5 #5 SF #32 0.9
SF 3rd downSF offense · ATL defense OFF +14 SF 51% #1 ATL #15 40%
SF 3rd downATL offense · SF defense DEF +10 ATL 34% #30 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · ATL defense OFF +9 SF 254 #6 ATL #15 222
SF Run gameSF offense · ATL defense OFF +7 SF -0.00 #18 ATL #25 +0.03
SF Pass attackSF offense · ATL defense OFF +6 SF +0.16 #7 ATL #13 -0.03
SF Red zoneSF offense · ATL defense OFF +5 SF 68% #8 ATL #13 62%
ATL Pass attackATL offense · SF defense OFF +4 ATL -0.01 #21 SF #25 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · SF defense OFF +3 ATL 218 #20 SF #23 242
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · SF defense LINE +3 ATL 126 #8 SF #11 110
SF Run block vs frontSF offense · ATL defense LINE +2 SF 114 #22 ATL #24 126
ATL Red zoneATL offense · SF defense OFF +1 ATL 65% #13 SF #14 62%
SF Run gameATL offense · SF defense DEF +1 ATL -0.03 #23 SF #22 +0.01
ATL Pass pro vs rushSF offense · ATL defense RUSH +0 SF 1.3 #2 ATL #2 3.4 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

ATL DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE
+0.16 #7 Pass attack even #13 -0.03
-0.00 #18 Run game even #25 +0.03
254 #6 Pass yards OFF +9 #15 222
107 #24 Rush yards even #24 126
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush even #2 3.4
51% #1 3rd down OFF +14 #15 40%
68% #8 Red zone even #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro even ATLpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#22
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#51
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.4
SFrun block even ATLrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#122
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#155
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#35
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#406
Kendal Daniels LILB
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 126