Pittsburgh Steelers
@
New Orleans Saints
MODEL NO 43%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 09:30
· Stade de France (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 1 – 0 NO
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
NO OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
+0.02 #10
Run game
DEF +8
#2 -0.07
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +17
#5 196
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#19 121
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
41% #14
3rd down
DEF +9
#5 36%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +10
#17 +0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +11
#20 +0.00
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +20
#30 261
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +15
#13 113
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#6 2.8
40% #19
3rd down
even
#25 43%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +23
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.8
NO PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #12 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #2 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #12 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #12 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #12 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #12 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #17 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #20 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #17 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #17 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #17 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #17 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.