no sides on this game yet · the record
PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 41%
book 44%
27%
57%
book is 3 pts higher
projected PIT 22 – NO 18 · PIT -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO +1.5
NO +3.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | NO | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| SCORE | ||
| FD |
43.7%
ours 40.5%
5/10
PIT−3.1 pts vs book
| book | NO | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| FD | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PIT · 9
| Drew Allar | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Will Howard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Gabriel Rubio | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kevin Jobity Jr. | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Gennings Dunker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
NO · 12
| Zach Wilson | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| John Ridgeway III | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Khristian Boyd | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Mason Murphy | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Red zoneNO offense · PIT defense
NO 50% #32
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · PIT defense
NO 2.9 #25
PIT #5 2.8
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · PIT defense
NO 237 #10
PIT #30 261
NO
Pass yardsPIT offense · NO defense
PIT 214 #22
NO #5 196
PIT
Run block vs frontNO offense · PIT defense
NO 94 #28
PIT #12 113
PIT
Run gameNO offense · PIT defense
NO -0.10 #31
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Pass attackNO offense · PIT defense
NO -0.08 #27
PIT #17 +0.03
NO
3rd downPIT offense · NO defense
PIT 41% #14
NO #5 36%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NO
Run gamePIT offense · NO defense
PIT +0.02 #10
NO #2 -0.07
NO
Run block vs frontPIT offense · NO defense
PIT 103 #26
NO #19 121
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO
3rd downNO offense · PIT defense
NO 40% #19
PIT #25 43%
NO
Pass attackPIT offense · NO defense
PIT +0.03 #16
NO #12 -0.05
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · NO defense
PIT 66% #11
NO #15 62%
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · NO defense
PIT 1.8 #9
NO #10 2.6
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
NO DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
+0.02 #10
Run game
DEF +8
#2 -0.07
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +17
#5 196
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#19 121
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
41% #14
3rd down
DEF +9
#5 36%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#54
1.8 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
PITrun block
even
NOrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#446
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#138
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#35
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#49
103 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 121
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +10
#17 +0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +11
#20 +0.00
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +20
#30 261
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +15
#13 113
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#5 2.8
40% #19
3rd down
even
#25 43%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +23
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +20
PITpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#32
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#35
2.9 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 2.8
NOrun block
front +16
PITrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#500
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#136
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#55
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#39
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#141
94 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 113