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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 09:30 · Stade de France · dome · sportturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 1 – 0 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out    NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 41% book 44%
27%
57%
book is 3 pts higher
projected PIT 22 – NO 18 · PIT -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO +1.5
NO +3.1
5/10
at the line
bookNOPIT
FD
DK
SCORE
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
SCORE
FD
Saintsmoneyline · wins, last 10
43.7%
ours 40.5%
5/10
PIT−3.1 pts vs book
bookNOPIT
DK
SCORE
FD
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PIT · 9
Drew AllarQBOUTCoach's Decision
Will HowardQBOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Gabriel RubioDEOUTCoach's Decision
Kevin Jobity Jr.DTOUTCoach's Decision
Gennings DunkerGOUTCoach's Decision
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
NO · 12
Zach WilsonQBOUTCoach's Decision
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
8 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
John Ridgeway IIIDTOUTCoach's Decision
Khristian BoydDTOUTCoach's Decision
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Mason MurphyOTOUTCoach's Decision
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 3.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Red zoneNO offense · PIT defense DEF +23 NO 50% #32 PIT #9 58%
PIT Pass pro vs rushNO offense · PIT defense RUSH +20 NO 2.9 #25 PIT #5 2.8
NO Pass yardsNO offense · PIT defense OFF +20 NO 237 #10 PIT #30 261
NO Pass yardsPIT offense · NO defense DEF +17 PIT 214 #22 NO #5 196
PIT Run block vs frontNO offense · PIT defense FRONT +16 NO 94 #28 PIT #12 113
PIT Run gameNO offense · PIT defense DEF +11 NO -0.10 #31 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Pass attackNO offense · PIT defense DEF +10 NO -0.08 #27 PIT #17 +0.03
NO 3rd downPIT offense · NO defense DEF +9 PIT 41% #14 NO #5 36%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NO Run gamePIT offense · NO defense DEF +8 PIT +0.02 #10 NO #2 -0.07
NO Run block vs frontPIT offense · NO defense FRONT +7 PIT 103 #26 NO #19 121 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO 3rd downNO offense · PIT defense OFF +6 NO 40% #19 PIT #25 43%
NO Pass attackPIT offense · NO defense DEF +4 PIT +0.03 #16 NO #12 -0.05
PIT Red zonePIT offense · NO defense OFF +4 PIT 66% #11 NO #15 62%
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · NO defense LINE +1 PIT 1.8 #9 NO #10 2.6 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NO DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 NO DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack even #12 -0.05
+0.02 #10 Run game DEF +8 #2 -0.07
214 #22 Pass yards DEF +17 #5 196
103 #26 Rush yards even #19 121
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush even #11 2.6
41% #14 3rd down DEF +9 #5 36%
66% #11 Red zone even #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro even NOpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#54
1.8 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
PITrun block even NOrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#446
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#138
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#35
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#49
103 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 121