no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 59%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 20 – SEA 23 · SEA -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -3
SEA −2.9
6/9
—at the line
| book | SEA | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 4:00 PM
KC · 5
| Jeff Caldwell | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
3rd downKC offense · SEA defense
KC 38% #23
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Red zoneKC offense · SEA defense
KC 58% #25
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Run block vs frontKC offense · SEA defense
KC 107 #25
SEA #4 94
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · KC defense
SEA 1.7 #6
KC #26 1.9
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · KC defense
SEA 43% #10
KC #28 44%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · SEA defense
KC 2.8 #22
SEA #7 2.8
KC
Run gameSEA offense · KC defense
SEA -0.05 #26
KC #11 -0.04
KC
Red zoneSEA offense · KC defense
SEA 62% #18
KC #6 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · KC defense
SEA +0.11 #8
KC #15 -0.00
SEA
Pass attackKC offense · SEA defense
KC +0.04 #14
SEA #8 -0.10
SEA
Run gameKC offense · SEA defense
KC +0.03 #6
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Pass yardsKC offense · SEA defense
KC 232 #16
SEA #12 213
KC
Run block vs frontSEA offense · KC defense
SEA 120 #12
KC #9 106
KC
Pass yardsSEA offense · KC defense
SEA 239 #9
KC #8 205
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#12 213
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +22
#3 92
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#8 2.8
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +22
#1 33%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +21
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +15
SEApass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#41
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#50
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
KCrun block
front +21
SEArun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#114
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#316
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#40
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +15
#11 -0.04
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#8 205
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#26 1.9
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +18
#28 44%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +12
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +20
KCpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#56
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#212
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
SEArun block
even
KCrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#44
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#25
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#423
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#45
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 106