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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 20:20 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 1 – 0 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out    SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 20 – SEA 23 · SEA -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -3
SEA −2.9
6/9
at the line
bookSEAKAN
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 4:00 PM
KC · 5
Jeff CaldwellWROUTKnee · IR
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA 3rd downKC offense · SEA defense DEF +22 KC 38% #23 SEA #1 33%
SEA Red zoneKC offense · SEA defense DEF +21 KC 58% #25 SEA #4 54%
SEA Run block vs frontKC offense · SEA defense FRONT +21 KC 107 #25 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · KC defense LINE +20 SEA 1.7 #6 KC #26 1.9
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · KC defense OFF +18 SEA 43% #10 KC #28 44%
SEA Pass pro vs rushKC offense · SEA defense RUSH +15 KC 2.8 #22 SEA #7 2.8
KC Run gameSEA offense · KC defense DEF +15 SEA -0.05 #26 KC #11 -0.04
KC Red zoneSEA offense · KC defense DEF +12 SEA 62% #18 KC #6 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · KC defense OFF +7 SEA +0.11 #8 KC #15 -0.00
SEA Pass attackKC offense · SEA defense DEF +6 KC +0.04 #14 SEA #8 -0.10
SEA Run gameKC offense · SEA defense DEF +5 KC +0.03 #6 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Pass yardsKC offense · SEA defense DEF +4 KC 232 #16 SEA #12 213
KC Run block vs frontSEA offense · KC defense FRONT +3 SEA 120 #12 KC #9 106
KC Pass yardsSEA offense · KC defense DEF +1 SEA 239 #9 KC #8 205

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack even #8 -0.10
+0.03 #6 Run game even #1 -0.15
232 #16 Pass yards even #12 213
107 #25 Rush yards DEF +22 #3 92
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #8 2.8
38% #23 3rd down DEF +22 #1 33%
58% #25 Red zone DEF +21 #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro rush +15 SEApass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#41
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#50
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
KCrun block front +21 SEArun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#60
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#114
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#316
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#40
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94