Kansas City Chiefs
@
Seattle Seahawks
MODEL SEA 68%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 20:20
· Lumen Field (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 1 – 0 SEA
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
SEA OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#12 213
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +22
#3 92
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#8 2.8
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +22
#1 33%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +21
#4 54%
SEA OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +15
#11 -0.04
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#8 205
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#26 1.9
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +18
#28 44%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +12
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 1.9
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #8 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #1 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #8 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #8 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #8 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #8 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #15 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #11 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #15 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #15 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #15 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #15 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.