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Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 2 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q    MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz
MIN win probability
ours 59% book 56%
43%
73%
book is 3 pts lower
projected IND 21 – MIN 24 · MIN -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN -2.5
MIN −2.9
6/10
at the line
bookMININD
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Vikingsmoneyline · wins, last 10
56.3%
ours 58.7%
6/10
MIN+2.4 pts vs book
bookMININD
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 11
Riley LeonardQBOUTCoach's Decision
DJ GiddensRBOUTCoach's Decision
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEHand
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Johnathan EdwardsCBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerGOUTCoach's Decision
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
George Gumbs Jr.LBOUTCoach's Decision
MIN · 11
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 2.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Run block vs frontMIN offense · IND defense FRONT +17 MIN 108 #24 IND #7 102
IND Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · IND defense RUSH +16 MIN 3.5 #31 IND #15 2.3
IND Red zoneMIN offense · IND defense DEF +16 MIN 61% #21 IND #5 55%
IND Pass attackMIN offense · IND defense DEF +11 MIN -0.19 #30 IND #19 +0.04
IND Run gameMIN offense · IND defense DEF +11 MIN -0.01 #20 IND #9 -0.05
MIN Pass attackIND offense · MIN defense DEF +10 IND +0.06 #12 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Pass yardsIND offense · MIN defense DEF +6 IND 240 #8 MIN #2 178
IND 3rd downMIN offense · IND defense DEF +5 MIN 32% #31 IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
MIN Red zoneIND offense · MIN defense DEF +5 IND 68% #7 MIN #2 49%
MIN 3rd downIND offense · MIN defense DEF +4 IND 43% #7 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass pro vs rushIND offense · MIN defense RUSH +4 IND 1.7 #8 MIN #4 2.9
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · MIN defense LINE +4 IND 118 #17 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
IND Run gameIND offense · MIN defense OFF +3 IND +0.09 #3 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN Pass yardsMIN offense · IND defense OFF +1 MIN 189 #30 IND #31 262

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

MIN DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2025 MIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12 Pass attack DEF +10 #2 -0.15
+0.09 #3 Run game even #6 -0.05
240 #8 Pass yards even #2 178
118 #17 Rush yards even #21 124
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush even #4 2.9
43% #7 3rd down even #3 35%
68% #7 Red zone even #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even MINpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#43
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#46
1.7 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
INDrun block even MINrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#69
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124