no sides on this game yet · the record
IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz
MIN win probability
ours 59%
book 56%
43%
73%
book is 3 pts lower
projected IND 21 – MIN 24 · MIN -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIN -2.5
MIN −2.9
6/10
—at the line
| book | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
56.3%
ours 58.7%
6/10
MIN+2.4 pts vs book
| book | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 11
| Riley Leonard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Giddens | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hand |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Johnathan Edwards | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Tucker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
| George Gumbs Jr. | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
MIN · 11
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 2.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Run block vs frontMIN offense · IND defense
MIN 108 #24
IND #7 102
IND
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · IND defense
MIN 3.5 #31
IND #15 2.3
IND
Red zoneMIN offense · IND defense
MIN 61% #21
IND #5 55%
IND
Pass attackMIN offense · IND defense
MIN -0.19 #30
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Run gameMIN offense · IND defense
MIN -0.01 #20
IND #9 -0.05
MIN
Pass attackIND offense · MIN defense
IND +0.06 #12
MIN #2 -0.15
MIN
Pass yardsIND offense · MIN defense
IND 240 #8
MIN #2 178
IND
3rd downMIN offense · IND defense
MIN 32% #31
IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
MIN
Red zoneIND offense · MIN defense
IND 68% #7
MIN #2 49%
MIN
3rd downIND offense · MIN defense
IND 43% #7
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · MIN defense
IND 1.7 #8
MIN #4 2.9
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · MIN defense
IND 118 #17
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
IND
Run gameIND offense · MIN defense
IND +0.09 #3
MIN #6 -0.05
MIN
Pass yardsMIN offense · IND defense
MIN 189 #30
IND #31 262
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2025
MIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +10
#2 -0.15
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#2 178
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
43% #7
3rd down
even
#3 35%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
MINpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#43
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#46
1.7 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
INDrun block
even
MINrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2025
IND DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +11
#19 +0.04
-0.01 #20
Run game
DEF +11
#9 -0.05
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#31 262
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +16
#7 102
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#16 2.3
32% #31
3rd down
even
#26 43%
61% #21
Red zone
DEF +16
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +16
INDpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#98
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#107
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
MINrun block
front +17
INDrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#125
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#195
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#51
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#21
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102