Indianapolis Colts
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 54%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 2 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
MIN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +10
#2 -0.15
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#2 178
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
43% #7
3rd down
even
#3 35%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +11
#19 +0.04
-0.01 #20
Run game
DEF +11
#9 -0.05
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#31 262
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +16
#7 102
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#15 2.3
32% #31
3rd down
even
#26 43%
61% #21
Red zone
DEF +16
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.3
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #2 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #6 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #2 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #2 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #2 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #2 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #19 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #9 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #19 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #19 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #19 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #19 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.