Miami Dolphins
@
New York Jets
DIV
MODEL NYJ 48%
Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 8 – 2 NYJ
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
OFF +12
#32 +0.25
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +9
#16 226
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +16
#29 139
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#31 1.5
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +14
#12 39%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +15
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
-0.06 #29
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +14
#18 231
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +16
#26 132
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#16 2.3
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +9
#18 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +10
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.3
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #32 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #26 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #32 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #32 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #32 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #32 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #26 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #27 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #26 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #26 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #26 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #26 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.