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Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 7 · 2026-10-25 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 8 – 2 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 49% book 56%
37%
67%
book is 7 pts higher
projected MIA 23 – NYJ 22 · MIA -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ -2.5
NYJ +0.4
2/10
at the line
bookNYJMIA
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Jetsmoneyline · wins, last 10
56.3%
ours 48.8%
3/10
MIA−7.6 pts vs book
bookNYJMIA
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
Brady CookQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jalen TolbertWROUTCoach's Decision
Justin JolyTEOUTCoach's Decision
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed
Reese TaylorCBOUTCoach's Decision
Storm DuckCBOUTKnee
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
DJ CampbellGOUTCoach's Decision
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Chukwuebuka GodrickOTOUTCoach's Decision
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSDOUBTFULGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 7.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · NYJ defense LINE +16 MIA 120 #13 NYJ #29 139
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · MIA defense LINE +16 NYJ 123 #10 MIA #26 132
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NYJ defense LINE +15 MIA 2.2 #16 NYJ #31 1.5
MIA Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · MIA defense RUSH +15 NYJ 3.5 #29 MIA #14 2.3
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +15 MIA 64% #14 NYJ #29 70%
NYJ 3rd downMIA offense · NYJ defense DEF +14 MIA 35% #26 NYJ #12 39%
MIA Pass yardsNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +14 NYJ 164 #32 MIA #18 231
MIA Pass attackMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +12 MIA -0.01 #20 NYJ #32 +0.25
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIA Red zoneNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +10 NYJ 53% #29 MIA #19 66%
MIA 3rd downNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +9 NYJ 35% #27 MIA #18 41%
NYJ Pass yardsMIA offense · NYJ defense DEF +9 MIA 195 #25 NYJ #16 226
MIA Run gameMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +5 MIA -0.03 #21 NYJ #26 +0.03
MIA Pass attackNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +2 NYJ -0.18 #28 MIA #26 +0.13
MIA Run gameNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +2 NYJ -0.06 #29 MIA #27 +0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

NYJ DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack OFF +12 #32 +0.25
-0.03 #21 Run game even #26 +0.03
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +9 #16 226
120 #13 Rush yards OFF +16 #29 139
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush OFF +15 #31 1.5
35% #26 3rd down DEF +14 #12 39%
64% #14 Red zone OFF +15 #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro line +15 NYJpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#26
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#74
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#99
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
MIArun block line +16 NYJrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#217
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#203
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#40
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#151
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139