no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 49%
book 56%
37%
67%
book is 7 pts higher
projected MIA 23 – NYJ 22 · MIA -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ -2.5
NYJ +0.4
2/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
56.3%
ours 48.8%
3/10
MIA−7.6 pts vs book
| book | NYJ | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
| Brady Cook | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Justin Joly | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Baker Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Reese Taylor | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Duck | CB | OUT | Knee |
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| DJ Campbell | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 7.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA 120 #13
NYJ #29 139
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ 123 #10
MIA #26 132
MIA
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA 2.2 #16
NYJ #31 1.5
MIA
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
MIA #14 2.3
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA 64% #14
NYJ #29 70%
NYJ
3rd downMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA 35% #26
NYJ #12 39%
MIA
Pass yardsNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ 164 #32
MIA #18 231
MIA
Pass attackMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA -0.01 #20
NYJ #32 +0.25
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIA
Red zoneNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ 53% #29
MIA #19 66%
MIA
3rd downNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ 35% #27
MIA #18 41%
NYJ
Pass yardsMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA 195 #25
NYJ #16 226
MIA
Run gameMIA offense · NYJ defense
MIA -0.03 #21
NYJ #26 +0.03
MIA
Pass attackNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
MIA #26 +0.13
MIA
Run gameNYJ offense · MIA defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
MIA #27 +0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
OFF +12
#32 +0.25
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +9
#16 226
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +16
#29 139
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#31 1.5
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +14
#12 39%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +15
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
line +15
NYJpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#26
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#74
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#99
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
MIArun block
line +16
NYJrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#217
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#203
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#40
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#151
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
-0.06 #29
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +14
#18 231
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +16
#26 132
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#15 2.3
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +9
#18 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +10
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +15
MIApass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#57
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#94
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#105
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
NYJrun block
line +16
MIArun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#214
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#384
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#50
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#393
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#16
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132