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The full slate — Week 8
14 of 14 games
The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.
GB win probability
ours 71%
book 74%
57%
87%
book is 3 pts higher
Our number
GB -7.2 · 42.9
The market
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| Book | CAR spread | GB spread | Over | Under | CAR win | GB win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
CAR offense vs GB defense-2.8 pts
GB offense vs CAR defense+0.5 pts
DAL win probability
ours 62%
book 81%
57%
87%
book is 19 pts higher
Our number
DAL -3.9 · 51.6
The market
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| Book | ARI spread | DAL spread | Over | Under | ARI win | DAL win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
ARI offense vs DAL defense+2.8 pts
DAL offense vs ARI defense+3.6 pts
TB win probability
ours 74%
book 66%
55%
85%
book is 8 pts lower
Our number
TB -8.4 · 45.5
The market
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| Book | ATL spread | TB spread | Over | Under | ATL win | TB win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
ATL offense vs TB defense-0.4 pts
TB offense vs ATL defense+0.8 pts
BUF win probability
ours 59%
book 55%
42%
72%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number
BUF -3.0 · 49.7
The market
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| Book | BAL spread | BUF spread | Over | Under | BAL win | BUF win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
BAL offense vs BUF defense+1.7 pts
BUF offense vs BAL defense+2.8 pts
PIT win probability
ours 62%
book 69%
51%
81%
book is 7 pts higher
Our number
PIT -4.1 · 40.8
The market
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| Book | CLE spread | PIT spread | Over | Under | CLE win | PIT win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
CLE offense vs PIT defense-3.8 pts
PIT offense vs CLE defense-0.6 pts
JAX win probability
ours 61%
book 66%
49%
79%
book is 5 pts higher
Our number
JAX -3.6 · 49.0
The market
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| Book | IND spread | JAX spread | Over | Under | IND win | JAX win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
IND offense vs JAX defense+1.2 pts
JAX offense vs IND defense+2.6 pts
NYJ win probability
ours 50%
book 53%
37%
67%
book is 3 pts higher
Our number
NYJ -0.0 · 43.0
The market
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| Book | LV spread | NYJ spread | Over | Under | LV win | NYJ win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
LV offense vs NYJ defense-0.9 pts
NYJ offense vs LV defense-1.3 pts
DET win probability
ours 59%
book 66%
47%
77%
book is 7 pts higher
Our number
DET -3.1 · 45.7
The market
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| Book | MIN spread | DET spread | Over | Under | MIN win | DET win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
MIN offense vs DET defense-0.7 pts
DET offense vs MIN defense+1.3 pts
CIN win probability
ours 69%
book 71%
55%
85%
book is 2 pts higher
Our number
CIN -6.4 · 48.7
The market
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| Book | TEN spread | CIN spread | Over | Under | TEN win | CIN win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
TEN offense vs CIN defense+0.3 pts
CIN offense vs TEN defense+3.3 pts
LAR win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
LAR -5.2 · 44.9
The market
—
LAC offense vs LAR defense-1.7 pts
LAR offense vs LAC defense+1.5 pts
DEN win probability
ours 54.5%
book 53.2%
39%
69%
book is 1.3 pts lower
Our number
DEN -1.5 · 40.9
The market
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| Book | KC spread | DEN spread | Over | Under | KC win | DEN win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
KC offense vs DEN defense-2.5 pts
DEN offense vs KC defense-1.8 pts
MIA win probability
ours 39%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
NE -3.6 · 43.4
The market
—
NE offense vs MIA defense+1.3 pts
MIA offense vs NE defense-3.1 pts
WAS win probability
ours 45.5%
book 46.8%
31%
61%
book is 1.3 pts higher
Our number
PHI -1.5 · 44.4
The market
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| Book | PHI spread | WAS spread | Over | Under | PHI win | WAS win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
PHI offense vs WAS defense+1.4 pts
WAS offense vs PHI defense-2.2 pts
SEA win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
Our number
SEA -5.2 · 45.7
The market
—
CHI offense vs SEA defense-2.1 pts
SEA offense vs CHI defense+2.6 pts