no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 21 – CIN 29 · CIN -7.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CIN -6.75
CIN −7.1
3/10
—at the line
| book | CIN | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN 76% #1
TEN #30 71%
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN 250 #7
TEN #26 248
CIN
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN 3.2 #29
CIN #12 2.4
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN 44% #5
TEN #21 42%
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN 1.9 #10
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN +0.02 #8
TEN #23 +0.02
TEN
Run block vs frontCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN 95 #29
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
CIN
Pass attackCIN offense · TEN defense
CIN -0.03 #23
TEN #29 +0.17
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
TEN
Red zoneTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN 61% #20
CIN #26 69%
CIN
3rd downTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN 32% #32
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Pass yardsTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN 191 #29
CIN #25 246
CIN
Pass attackTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN -0.22 #31
CIN #28 +0.16
TEN
Run gameTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN -0.06 #27
CIN #29 +0.09
CIN
Run block vs frontTEN offense · CIN defense
TEN 91 #31
CIN #30 139
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#25 246
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#32 147
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
32% #32
3rd down
even
#27 44%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +17
CINpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#66
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#95
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#128
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
TENrun block
even
CINrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#229
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#220
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#102
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#133
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#270
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +15
#23 +0.02
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +19
#26 248
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +14
#15 115
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +16
#21 42%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +29
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
line +15
TENpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#12
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#34
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#60
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
CINrun block
front +10
TENrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#150
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#606
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#198
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#113
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120