BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 1 – 3 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 21 – CIN 29 · CIN -7.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -6.75
CIN −7.1
3/10
at the line
bookCINTEN
DK
CZR
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · TEN defense OFF +29 CIN 76% #1 TEN #30 71%
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · TEN defense OFF +19 CIN 250 #7 TEN #26 248
CIN Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · CIN defense RUSH +17 TEN 3.2 #29 CIN #12 2.4
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · TEN defense OFF +16 CIN 44% #5 TEN #21 42%
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · TEN defense LINE +15 CIN 1.9 #10 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
CIN Run gameCIN offense · TEN defense OFF +15 CIN +0.02 #8 TEN #23 +0.02
TEN Run block vs frontCIN offense · TEN defense FRONT +10 CIN 95 #29 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
CIN Pass attackCIN offense · TEN defense OFF +6 CIN -0.03 #23 TEN #29 +0.17
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
TEN Red zoneTEN offense · CIN defense OFF +6 TEN 61% #20 CIN #26 69%
CIN 3rd downTEN offense · CIN defense DEF +5 TEN 32% #32 CIN #27 44%
CIN Pass yardsTEN offense · CIN defense DEF +4 TEN 191 #29 CIN #25 246
CIN Pass attackTEN offense · CIN defense DEF +3 TEN -0.22 #31 CIN #28 +0.16
TEN Run gameTEN offense · CIN defense OFF +2 TEN -0.06 #27 CIN #29 +0.09
CIN Run block vs frontTEN offense · CIN defense FRONT +1 TEN 91 #31 CIN #30 139

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CIN DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack even #28 +0.16
-0.06 #27 Run game even #29 +0.09
191 #29 Pass yards even #25 246
93 #30 Rush yards even #32 147
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
32% #32 3rd down even #27 44%
61% #20 Red zone even #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro rush +17 CINpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#66
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#95
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#128
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
TENrun block even CINrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#229
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#220
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#102
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#133
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#270
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139