BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 16:25 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 3 – 7 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
MIA win probability
ours 39% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 24 – MIA 20 · NE -3.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA +6.75
MIA +3.8
5/10
at the line
bookMIANE
CZR
DK
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass attackNE offense · MIA defense OFF +25 NE +0.29 #1 MIA #26 +0.13
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · MIA defense LINE +20 NE 127 #6 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
NE Pass yardsMIA offense · NE defense DEF +16 MIA 195 #25 NE #9 207
NE 3rd downMIA offense · NE defense DEF +15 MIA 35% #26 NE #11 39%
NE Pass yardsNE offense · MIA defense OFF +14 NE 262 #4 MIA #18 231
NE Run gameNE offense · MIA defense OFF +14 NE +0.01 #13 MIA #27 +0.04
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · NE defense OFF +13 MIA 64% #14 NE #27 69%
NE Run block vs frontMIA offense · NE defense FRONT +13 MIA 115 #19 NE #6 101
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NE 3rd downNE offense · MIA defense OFF +12 NE 44% #6 MIA #18 41%
NE Red zoneNE offense · MIA defense OFF +10 NE 66% #9 MIA #19 66%
NE Pass attackMIA offense · NE defense DEF +9 MIA -0.01 #20 NE #11 -0.06
NE Pass pro vs rushNE offense · MIA defense LINE +6 NE 2.9 #24 MIA #30 1.8
NE Run gameMIA offense · NE defense DEF +6 MIA -0.03 #21 NE #15 -0.03
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NE defense LINE +1 MIA 2.7 #21 NE #22 2.0

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

MIA DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +25 #26 +0.13
+0.01 #13 Run game OFF +14 #27 +0.04
262 #4 Pass yards OFF +14 #18 231
129 #6 Rush yards OFF +20 #26 132
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush DEF +9 #15 2.3
44% #6 3rd down OFF +12 #18 41%
66% #9 Red zone OFF +10 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro even MIApass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#63
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#91
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#107
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
NErun block line +20 MIArun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#209
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#413
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#37
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#421
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#14
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132