New England Patriots
@
Miami Dolphins
DIV
MODEL MIA 43%
Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 16:25
· Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 3 – 7 MIA
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
MIA OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +25
#26 +0.13
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +14
#27 +0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +14
#18 231
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +20
#26 132
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#16 2.3
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +12
#18 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +10
#19 66%
MIA OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +9
#11 -0.06
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +16
#9 207
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#6 102
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#25 2.0
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +15
#11 39%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +13
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.0
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #26 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #27 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #26 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #26 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #26 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #26 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #11 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #15 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #11 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #11 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #11 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #11 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.