Las Vegas Raiders
@
New York Jets
MODEL NYJ 55%
Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 1 – 0 NYJ
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.26 #32
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +10
#16 226
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +17
#12 39%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +15
#14 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +19
#13 214
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#17 117
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#21 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
even
#30 47%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +18
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.1
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #32 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #26 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #32 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #32 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #32 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #32 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #23 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #14 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #23 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #23 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #23 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #23 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.