no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Aidan O'Connell QB out · Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 50%
book 53%
37%
67%
book is 3 pts higher
projected LV 21 – NYJ 21 · NYJ -0.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ -1.5
NYJ −0.0
2/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
40.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
53.2%
ours 50.0%
3/10
LV−3.2 pts vs book
| book | NYJ | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LV · 11
| Aidan O'Connell | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Luter Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| JJ Pegues | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Bryce Cabeldue | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cody Lindenberg | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Johnson | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LV
Pass yardsNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ 164 #32
LV #13 214
LV
Red zoneNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ 53% #29
LV #11 59%
NYJ
3rd downLV offense · NYJ defense
LV 34% #29
NYJ #12 39%
LV
Run gameNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
LV #14 -0.04
NYJ
Pass yardsLV offense · NYJ defense
LV 195 #26
NYJ #16 226
LV
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
LV #21 2.1
LV
Pass attackNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
LV #22 +0.08
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ 123 #10
LV #16 117
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
NYJ
Run gameLV offense · NYJ defense
LV -0.26 #32
NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ
3rd downNYJ offense · LV defense
NYJ 35% #27
LV #30 47%
LV
Pass attackLV offense · NYJ defense
LV -0.19 #29
NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ
Run block vs frontLV offense · NYJ defense
LV 77 #32
NYJ #29 139
LV
Red zoneLV offense · NYJ defense
LV 56% #27
NYJ #29 70%
NYJ
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · NYJ defense
LV 3.8 #32
NYJ #31 1.5
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.26 #32
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +10
#16 226
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +17
#12 39%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#26
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#74
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#99
3.8 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
LVrun block
even
NYJrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#217
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#203
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#40
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#151
77 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
LV DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +15
#14 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +19
#13 214
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#17 117
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#21 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
even
#30 47%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +18
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +8
LVpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#17
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#87
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#101
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.1
NYJrun block
even
LVrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#86
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#337
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#200
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#99
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 117