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Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 1 – 0 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 22 – NYJ 22 · NYJ -0.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ -1.5
NYJ −0.3
3/10
at the line
bookNYJLV
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LV · 5
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
NYJ · 10
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LV Pass yardsNYJ offense · LV defense DEF +19 NYJ 164 #32 LV #13 214
LV Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · LV defense RUSH +18 NYJ 3.0 #25 LV #7 2.8
LV Red zoneNYJ offense · LV defense DEF +18 NYJ 53% #29 LV #11 59%
NYJ 3rd downLV offense · NYJ defense DEF +17 LV 34% #29 NYJ #12 39%
LV Run gameNYJ offense · LV defense DEF +15 NYJ -0.06 #29 LV #14 -0.04
NYJ Pass yardsLV offense · NYJ defense DEF +10 LV 195 #26 NYJ #16 226
NYJ Run block vs frontLV offense · NYJ defense FRONT +8 LV 83 #32 NYJ #24 129
LV Pass attackNYJ offense · LV defense DEF +6 NYJ -0.18 #28 LV #22 +0.08
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
NYJ Run gameLV offense · NYJ defense DEF +6 LV -0.26 #32 NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · LV defense LINE +4 NYJ 126 #7 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
NYJ 3rd downNYJ offense · LV defense OFF +3 NYJ 35% #27 LV #30 47%
LV Pass attackLV offense · NYJ defense OFF +3 LV -0.19 #29 NYJ #32 +0.25
LV Red zoneLV offense · NYJ defense OFF +2 LV 56% #27 NYJ #29 70%
NYJ Pass pro vs rushLV offense · NYJ defense RUSH +0 LV 3.2 #27 NYJ #27 1.9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

NYJ DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

-0.19 #29 Pass attack even #32 +0.25
-0.26 #32 Run game even #26 +0.03
195 #26 Pass yards DEF +10 #16 226
77 #32 Rush yards even #29 139
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush even #31 1.5
34% #29 3rd down DEF +17 #12 39%
56% #27 Red zone even #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro even NYJpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#68
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#101
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
LVrun block front +8 NYJrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#133
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#248
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#163
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#49
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#152
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129