no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 20 – DEN 22 · DEN -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DEN -1.5
DEN −1.7
8/10
—at the line
| book | DEN | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 11:45 PM
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Red zoneKC offense · DEN defense
KC 58% #25
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Run block vs frontKC offense · DEN defense
KC 107 #25
DEN #2 91
DEN
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · DEN defense
KC 2.8 #23
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
3rd downKC offense · DEN defense
KC 38% #23
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · KC defense
DEN 1.4 #3
KC #24 1.9
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · KC defense
DEN 43% #9
KC #28 44%
KC
Pass yardsDEN offense · KC defense
DEN 231 #17
KC #8 205
KC
Red zoneDEN offense · KC defense
DEN 63% #15
KC #6 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DEN
Pass attackKC offense · DEN defense
KC +0.04 #14
DEN #6 -0.12
KC
Run block vs frontDEN offense · KC defense
DEN 119 #14
KC #7 106
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · KC defense
DEN +0.08 #9
KC #15 -0.00
DEN
Pass yardsKC offense · DEN defense
KC 232 #16
DEN #11 212
KC
Run gameDEN offense · KC defense
DEN +0.00 #16
KC #11 -0.04
KC
Run gameKC offense · DEN defense
KC +0.03 #6
DEN #10 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DEN DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
DEF +8
#6 -0.12
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#11 212
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +23
#2 91
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#1 4.0
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +21
#2 34%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +24
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +22
DENpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#28
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#43
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
KCrun block
front +23
DENrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#239
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#268
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#207
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#195
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#355
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
KC DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +9
#8 205
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +25
#26 1.9
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +19
#28 44%
63% #15
Red zone
DEF +9
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +21
KCpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#41
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#55
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#185
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
DENrun block
even
KCrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#41
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#21
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#445
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#37
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106