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Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 16:25 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 6 – 4 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out    DEN Caleb Lohner TE out
DEN win probability
ours 54.5% book 53.2%
39%
69%
book is 1.3 pts lower
projected KC 20 – DEN 21 · DEN -1.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN -1.5
DEN −1.5
8/10
at the line
bookDENKAN
DK
CZR
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Broncosmoneyline · wins, last 10
53.2%
ours 54.5%
9/10
DEN+1.2 pts vs book
bookDENKAN
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
KC · 5
Jeff CaldwellWROUTKnee · IR
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
DEN · 7
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael DeiterCOUTQuadriceps · IR
Matt HenningsenDEOUTAchilles · IR
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 1.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Red zoneKC offense · DEN defense DEF +24 KC 58% #25 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · KC defense LINE +23 DEN 1.4 #3 KC #26 1.9
DEN Run block vs frontKC offense · DEN defense FRONT +23 KC 107 #25 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downKC offense · DEN defense DEF +21 KC 38% #23 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass pro vs rushKC offense · DEN defense RUSH +21 KC 2.8 #22 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · KC defense OFF +19 DEN 43% #9 KC #28 44%
KC Pass yardsDEN offense · KC defense DEF +9 DEN 231 #17 KC #8 205
KC Red zoneDEN offense · KC defense DEF +9 DEN 63% #15 KC #6 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DEN Pass attackKC offense · DEN defense DEF +8 KC +0.04 #14 DEN #6 -0.12
KC Run block vs frontDEN offense · KC defense FRONT +7 DEN 119 #16 KC #9 106
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · KC defense OFF +6 DEN +0.08 #9 KC #15 -0.00
DEN Pass yardsKC offense · DEN defense DEF +5 KC 232 #16 DEN #11 212
KC Run gameDEN offense · KC defense DEF +5 DEN +0.00 #16 KC #11 -0.04
KC Run gameKC offense · DEN defense OFF +4 KC +0.03 #6 DEN #10 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DEN DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 DEN DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack DEF +8 #6 -0.12
+0.03 #6 Run game even #10 -0.04
232 #16 Pass yards even #11 212
107 #25 Rush yards DEF +23 #2 91
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush DEF +21 #1 4.0
38% #23 3rd down DEF +21 #2 34%
58% #25 Red zone DEF +24 #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro rush +21 DENpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#27
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#39
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
KCrun block front +23 DENrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#232
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#216
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#185
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#192
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#355
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91