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Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 4 – 6 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out    PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out
PIT win probability
ours 62% book 69%
51%
81%
book is 7 pts higher
projected CLE 18 – PIT 22 · PIT -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT -5.75
PIT −4.1
3/10
at the line
bookPITCLE
DK
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Steelersmoneyline · wins, last 10
69.1%
ours 62.4%
6/10
CLE−6.7 pts vs book
bookPITCLE
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 4:00 PM
CLE · 15
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Taylen GreenQBOUTCoach's Decision
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
11 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Noah IgbinogheneCBOUTCoach's Decision
Toriano Pride Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
Justin JeffersonLBOUTCoach's Decision
Daniel ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
PIT · 9
Drew AllarQBOUTCoach's Decision
Will HowardQBOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Gabriel RubioDEOUTCoach's Decision
Kevin Jobity Jr.DTOUTCoach's Decision
Gennings DunkerGOUTCoach's Decision
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 6.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · PIT defense RUSH +21 CLE 3.0 #26 PIT #5 2.8
CLE Pass yardsPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +19 PIT 214 #22 CLE #3 189
PIT Red zoneCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +19 CLE 55% #28 PIT #9 58%
PIT Pass attackCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +15 CLE -0.29 #32 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Run block vs frontCLE offense · PIT defense FRONT +15 CLE 97 #27 PIT #12 113
CLE Pass attackPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +12 PIT +0.03 #16 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Run block vs frontPIT offense · CLE defense FRONT +11 PIT 103 #26 CLE #15 116
PIT Red zonePIT offense · CLE defense OFF +9 PIT 66% #11 CLE #20 66%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
CLE Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CLE defense RUSH +7 PIT 1.8 #10 CLE #3 3.1
CLE 3rd downPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +6 PIT 41% #14 CLE #8 37%
PIT Run gameCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +5 CLE -0.05 #25 PIT #20 +0.00
CLE Run gamePIT offense · CLE defense DEF +5 PIT +0.02 #10 CLE #5 -0.05
PIT 3rd downCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +3 CLE 34% #28 PIT #25 43%
PIT Pass yardsCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +1 CLE 185 #31 PIT #30 261

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

PIT DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack DEF +15 #17 +0.03
-0.05 #25 Run game even #20 +0.00
185 #31 Pass yards even #30 261
97 #27 Rush yards DEF +14 #13 113
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush DEF +21 #5 2.8
34% #28 3rd down even #25 43%
55% #28 Red zone DEF +19 #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro rush +21 PITpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#33
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#44
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 2.8
CLErun block front +15 PITrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#497
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#123
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#55
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#46
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#137
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 113