no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out
PIT win probability
ours 62%
book 69%
51%
81%
book is 7 pts higher
projected CLE 18 – PIT 22 · PIT -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT -5.75
PIT −4.1
3/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
39.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
69.1%
ours 62.4%
6/10
CLE−6.7 pts vs book
| book | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 4:00 PM
CLE · 15
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Taylen Green | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
11 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Toriano Pride Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
| Justin Jefferson | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Daniel Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
PIT · 9
| Drew Allar | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Will Howard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Gabriel Rubio | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kevin Jobity Jr. | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Gennings Dunker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 6.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE 3.0 #26
PIT #5 2.8
CLE
Pass yardsPIT offense · CLE defense
PIT 214 #22
CLE #3 189
PIT
Red zoneCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE 55% #28
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Pass attackCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE -0.29 #32
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Run block vs frontCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE 97 #27
PIT #12 113
CLE
Pass attackPIT offense · CLE defense
PIT +0.03 #16
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Run block vs frontPIT offense · CLE defense
PIT 103 #26
CLE #15 116
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · CLE defense
PIT 66% #11
CLE #20 66%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
CLE
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CLE defense
PIT 1.8 #10
CLE #3 3.1
CLE
3rd downPIT offense · CLE defense
PIT 41% #14
CLE #8 37%
PIT
Run gameCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE -0.05 #25
PIT #20 +0.00
CLE
Run gamePIT offense · CLE defense
PIT +0.02 #10
CLE #5 -0.05
PIT
3rd downCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE 34% #28
PIT #25 43%
PIT
Pass yardsCLE offense · PIT defense
CLE 185 #31
PIT #30 261
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +15
#17 +0.03
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#30 261
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +14
#13 113
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#5 2.8
34% #28
3rd down
even
#25 43%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +19
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +21
PITpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#33
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#44
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 2.8
CLErun block
front +15
PITrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#497
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#123
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#55
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#46
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#137
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 113
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +12
#4 -0.13
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +19
#3 189
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +10
#16 116
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
41% #14
3rd down
even
#8 37%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +9
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
even
CLEpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#76
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
PITrun block
front +11
CLErun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#74
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#118
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#30
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
103 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116