Arizona Cardinals
@
Dallas Cowboys
MODEL DAL 58%
Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 3 – 0 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
DAL OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +14
#31 +0.22
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +27
#32 266
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +8
#23 125
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +19
#31 48%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +22
#27 +0.15
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +23
#24 243
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +16
#25 127
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#29 1.8
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +21
#29 45%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 1.8
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #31 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #31 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #31 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #31 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #31 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #31 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #27 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #21 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #27 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #27 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #27 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #27 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.