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Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 3 – 0 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out    DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out · Princeton Fant TE out
DAL win probability
ours 62% book 81%
57%
87%
book is 19 pts higher
projected ARI 24 – DAL 28 · DAL -3.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL -10.5
DAL −3.9
1/10
at the line
bookDALARI
DK
CZR
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Cowboysmoneyline · wins, last 10
80.8%opened -535
ours 61.8%
4/10
ARI−19.1 pts vs book
bookDALARI
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 4:00 PM
ARI · 11
Carson BeckQBOUTCoach's Decision
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Trey BensonRBOUTKnee · IR
Reggie VirgilWROUTCoach's Decision
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Andrew BillingsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
Princeton FantTEOUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kelvin Gilliam Jr.DTOUTTriceps · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 19.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · DAL defense OFF +27 ARI 256 #5 DAL #32 266
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · ARI defense OFF +23 DAL 279 #1 ARI #24 243
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · ARI defense OFF +22 DAL +0.16 #5 ARI #27 +0.15
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · ARI defense OFF +21 DAL 43% #8 ARI #29 45%
ARI 3rd downARI offense · DAL defense OFF +19 ARI 42% #12 DAL #31 48%
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · ARI defense LINE +19 DAL 1.8 #11 ARI #30 1.8 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · ARI defense LINE +16 DAL 126 #9 ARI #25 127 Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
ARI Pass attackARI offense · DAL defense OFF +14 ARI +0.00 #17 DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
DAL Run block vs frontARI offense · DAL defense FRONT +8 ARI 93 #31 DAL #23 125
DAL Run gameDAL offense · ARI defense OFF +6 DAL +0.01 #15 ARI #21 +0.01
ARI Red zoneARI offense · DAL defense OFF +5 ARI 56% #26 DAL #31 72%
DAL Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DAL defense RUSH +4 ARI 3.5 #28 DAL #24 2.0
DAL Red zoneDAL offense · ARI defense OFF +4 DAL 62% #17 ARI #21 67%
ARI Run gameARI offense · DAL defense OFF +3 ARI -0.06 #28 DAL #31 +0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

DAL DEFENSE ARI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 34% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ARI offense against what it runs into

ARI OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

+0.00 #17 Pass attack OFF +14 #31 +0.22
-0.06 #28 Run game even #31 +0.09
256 #5 Pass yards OFF +27 #32 266
93 #31 Rush yards DEF +8 #23 125
3.5 #28 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
42% #12 3rd down OFF +19 #31 48%
56% #26 Red zone even #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ARIpass pro even DALpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#63
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
ARIrun block front +8 DALrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#41
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#350
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#148
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#570
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125