no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out · Princeton Fant TE out
DAL win probability
ours 62%
book 81%
57%
87%
book is 19 pts higher
projected ARI 24 – DAL 28 · DAL -3.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -10.5
DAL −3.9
1/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
80.8%opened -535
ours 61.8%
4/10
ARI−19.1 pts vs book
| book | DAL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 4:00 PM
ARI · 11
| Carson Beck | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Trey Benson | RB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Reggie Virgil | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Andrew Billings | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
DAL · 8
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Princeton Fant | TE | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 19.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · DAL defense
ARI 256 #5
DAL #32 266
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL 279 #1
ARI #24 243
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL +0.16 #5
ARI #27 +0.15
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL 43% #8
ARI #29 45%
ARI
3rd downARI offense · DAL defense
ARI 42% #12
DAL #31 48%
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL 1.8 #11
ARI #30 1.8
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL 126 #9
ARI #25 127
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
ARI
Pass attackARI offense · DAL defense
ARI +0.00 #17
DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
DAL
Run block vs frontARI offense · DAL defense
ARI 93 #31
DAL #23 125
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL +0.01 #15
ARI #21 +0.01
ARI
Red zoneARI offense · DAL defense
ARI 56% #26
DAL #31 72%
DAL
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · DAL defense
ARI 3.5 #28
DAL #24 2.0
DAL
Red zoneDAL offense · ARI defense
DAL 62% #17
ARI #21 67%
ARI
Run gameARI offense · DAL defense
ARI -0.06 #28
DAL #31 +0.09
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +14
#31 +0.22
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +27
#32 266
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +8
#23 125
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +19
#31 48%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#63
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
ARIrun block
front +8
DALrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#41
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#350
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#148
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#570
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2025
ARI DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +22
#27 +0.15
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +23
#24 243
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +16
#25 127
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#30 1.8
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +21
#29 45%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +19
ARIpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#245
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#188
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
DALrun block
line +16
ARIrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#14
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#255
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#175
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#418
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#71
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127