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Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 1 – 0 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAR win probability
ours 67% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 20 – LAR 26 · LAR -5.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -4.5opened -4
LAR −5.8
5/10
at the line
bookLARLAC
DK
CZR
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Red zoneLAC offense · LAR defense DEF +22 LAC 52% #30 LAR #8 56%
LAR Pass attackLAC offense · LAR defense DEF +16 LAC -0.05 #26 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · LAC defense LINE +14 LAR 1.1 #1 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · LAR defense RUSH +13 LAC 3.4 #31 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAC 3rd downLAR offense · LAC defense DEF +12 LAR 40% #16 LAC #4 35%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · LAC defense OFF +7 LAR +0.23 #2 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · LAR defense OFF +5 LAC 233 #15 LAR #20 235
LAC Run block vs frontLAC offense · LAR defense LINE +4 LAC 117 #16 LAR #20 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
LAC Red zoneLAR offense · LAC defense DEF +3 LAR 68% #6 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameLAR offense · LAC defense DEF +3 LAR +0.03 #7 LAC #4 -0.07
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · LAR defense OFF +2 LAC 46% #4 LAR #6 36%
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · LAC defense OFF +2 LAR 277 #2 LAC #4 195
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · LAC defense LINE +1 LAR 126 #8 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC Run gameLAC offense · LAR defense OFF +1 LAC +0.02 #11 LAR #12 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LAR DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack DEF +16 #10 -0.07
+0.02 #11 Run game even #12 -0.04
233 #15 Pass yards even #20 235
122 #12 Rush yards even #12 111
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush DEF +21 #9 2.8
46% #4 3rd down even #6 36%
52% #30 Red zone DEF +22 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro rush +13 LARpass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#44
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
LACrun block even LARrun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#60
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#223
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#83
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120