no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAR win probability
ours 67%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 20 – LAR 26 · LAR -5.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -4.5opened -4
LAR −5.8
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Red zoneLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC 52% #30
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Pass attackLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC -0.05 #26
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR 1.1 #1
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC 3.4 #31
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAC
3rd downLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR 40% #16
LAC #4 35%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR +0.23 #2
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC 233 #15
LAR #20 235
LAC
Run block vs frontLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC 117 #16
LAR #20 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
LAC
Red zoneLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR 68% #6
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run gameLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR +0.03 #7
LAC #4 -0.07
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC 46% #4
LAR #6 36%
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR 277 #2
LAC #4 195
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · LAC defense
LAR 126 #8
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · LAR defense
LAC +0.02 #11
LAR #12 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +16
#10 -0.07
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#20 235
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#12 111
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#9 2.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#6 36%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +22
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +13
LARpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#44
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
LACrun block
even
LARrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#223
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#83
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#4 -0.07
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#4 195
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#8 105
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#10 2.6
40% #16
3rd down
DEF +12
#4 35%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +14
LACpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#63
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
LARrun block
even
LACrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#267
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#324
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#174
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#192
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107