no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 22 – SEA 26 · SEA -4.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -4.75
SEA −4.8
6/10
—at the line
| book | SEA | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA 120 #11
CHI #27 133
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA 1.7 #6
CHI #20 2.0
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA 239 #9
CHI #22 239
SEA
3rd downCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI 43% #11
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA +0.11 #8
CHI #18 +0.03
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA 43% #10
CHI #19 41%
CHI
Run gameSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA -0.05 #26
CHI #19 +0.00
SEA
Red zoneCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI 66% #10
SEA #4 54%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SEA
Run gameCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI +0.08 #4
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Pass attackCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI +0.08 #10
SEA #8 -0.10
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI 1.5 #4
SEA #6 2.8
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI 161 #2
SEA #4 94
SEA
Pass yardsCHI offense · SEA defense
CHI 235 #12
SEA #12 213
CHI
Red zoneSEA offense · CHI defense
SEA 62% #18
CHI #18 65%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#12 213
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#3 92
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
43% #11
3rd down
DEF +10
#1 33%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
CHIrun block
even
SEArun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#304
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#36
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +10
#18 +0.03
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +13
#22 239
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +16
#27 135
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#22 2.1
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +9
#19 41%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +14
CHIpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#110
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
SEArun block
line +16
CHIrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#15
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#584
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#299
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#399
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#103
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133