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Week 8 · 2026-11-02 · 20:15 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 1 – 1 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out    SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 22 – SEA 26 · SEA -4.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -4.75
SEA −4.8
6/10
at the line
bookSEACHI
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · CHI defense LINE +16 SEA 120 #11 CHI #27 133 Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · CHI defense LINE +14 SEA 1.7 #6 CHI #20 2.0
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · CHI defense OFF +13 SEA 239 #9 CHI #22 239
SEA 3rd downCHI offense · SEA defense DEF +10 CHI 43% #11 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · CHI defense OFF +10 SEA +0.11 #8 CHI #18 +0.03
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · CHI defense OFF +9 SEA 43% #10 CHI #19 41%
CHI Run gameSEA offense · CHI defense DEF +7 SEA -0.05 #26 CHI #19 +0.00
SEA Red zoneCHI offense · SEA defense DEF +6 CHI 66% #10 SEA #4 54%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SEA Run gameCHI offense · SEA defense DEF +3 CHI +0.08 #4 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Pass attackCHI offense · SEA defense DEF +2 CHI +0.08 #10 SEA #8 -0.10
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · SEA defense LINE +2 CHI 1.5 #4 SEA #6 2.8
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · SEA defense LINE +2 CHI 161 #2 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass yardsCHI offense · SEA defense DEF +0 CHI 235 #12 SEA #12 213
CHI Red zoneSEA offense · CHI defense DEF +0 SEA 62% #18 CHI #18 65%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE CHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CHI offense against what it runs into

CHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.

+0.08 #10 Pass attack even #8 -0.10
+0.08 #4 Run game even #1 -0.15
235 #12 Pass yards even #12 213
144 #3 Rush yards even #3 92
1.4 #3 Pass pro vs rush even #8 2.8
43% #11 3rd down DEF +10 #1 33%
66% #10 Red zone even #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CHIpass pro even SEApass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
CHIrun block even SEArun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#304
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#29
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#36
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94