Chicago Bears
@
Seattle Seahawks
MODEL SEA 69%
Week 8 · 2026-11-02 · 20:15
· Lumen Field (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 1 – 1 SEA
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
SEA OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#12 213
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#3 92
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
43% #11
3rd down
DEF +10
#1 33%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#4 54%
SEA OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +10
#18 +0.03
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +13
#22 239
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +16
#27 135
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#22 2.1
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +9
#19 41%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 2.1
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #8 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #1 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #8 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #8 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #8 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #8 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #18 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #19 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #18 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #18 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #18 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #18 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.