no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – JAX 28 · JAX -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
JAX -4.25
JAC −4.7
8/10
—at the line
| book | JAC | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
JAX · 5
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · IND defense
JAX 237 #11
IND #31 262
IND
Red zoneIND offense · JAX defense
IND 68% #7
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Run block vs frontIND offense · JAX defense
IND 116 #18
JAX #1 86
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · JAX defense
IND 240 #8
JAX #19 231
IND
3rd downIND offense · JAX defense
IND 43% #7
JAX #17 41%
IND
Run gameIND offense · JAX defense
IND +0.09 #3
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass attackIND offense · JAX defense
IND +0.06 #12
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · IND defense
JAX 40% #18
IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · IND defense
JAX +0.06 #11
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Run gameJAX offense · IND defense
JAX -0.00 #17
IND #9 -0.05
IND
Red zoneJAX offense · IND defense
JAX 65% #12
IND #5 55%
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · JAX defense
IND 1.8 #7
JAX #11 2.6
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · IND defense
JAX 2.2 #16
IND #17 2.2
IND
Run block vs frontJAX offense · IND defense
JAX 116 #17
IND #17 117
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +9
#3 -0.14
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +10
#13 -0.04
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +11
#19 231
118 #17
Rush yards
DEF +16
#1 86
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#27 1.9
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +10
#17 41%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +18
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#26
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#122
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
INDrun block
front +17
JAXrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#79
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#108
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#324
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#20
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#169
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +8
#19 +0.04
-0.00 #17
Run game
DEF +8
#9 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +20
#31 262
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +13
#7 102
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +8
#26 43%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#107
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#101
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
JAXrun block
even
INDrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#137
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#182
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#60
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#26
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117