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Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 3 – 7 JAX
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q    JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – JAX 28 · JAX -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jaguarsspread · margin, last 10
JAX -4.25
JAC −4.7
8/10
at the line
bookJACIND
DK
CZR
Jaguarstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
JAX · 5
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · IND defense OFF +20 JAX 237 #11 IND #31 262
IND Red zoneIND offense · JAX defense OFF +18 IND 68% #7 JAX #25 68%
JAX Run block vs frontIND offense · JAX defense FRONT +17 IND 116 #18 JAX #1 86
IND Pass yardsIND offense · JAX defense OFF +11 IND 240 #8 JAX #19 231
IND 3rd downIND offense · JAX defense OFF +10 IND 43% #7 JAX #17 41%
IND Run gameIND offense · JAX defense OFF +10 IND +0.09 #3 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass attackIND offense · JAX defense DEF +9 IND +0.06 #12 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · IND defense OFF +8 JAX 40% #18 IND #26 43%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · IND defense OFF +8 JAX +0.06 #11 IND #19 +0.04
IND Run gameJAX offense · IND defense DEF +8 JAX -0.00 #17 IND #9 -0.05
IND Red zoneJAX offense · IND defense DEF +7 JAX 65% #12 IND #5 55%
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · JAX defense LINE +4 IND 1.8 #7 JAX #11 2.6
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · IND defense LINE +1 JAX 2.2 #16 IND #17 2.2
IND Run block vs frontJAX offense · IND defense FRONT +0 JAX 116 #17 IND #17 117

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

JAX DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 JAX DEFENSE
+0.06 #12 Pass attack DEF +9 #3 -0.14
+0.09 #3 Run game OFF +10 #13 -0.04
240 #8 Pass yards OFF +11 #19 231
118 #17 Rush yards DEF +16 #1 86
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush OFF +19 #27 1.9
43% #7 3rd down OFF +10 #17 41%
68% #7 Red zone OFF +18 #25 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even JAXpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Josh Hines-Allen DE 8.0 sk#26
Arik Armstead DE 5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE 3.5 sk#122
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
INDrun block front +17 JAXrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Travon Walker LDE 8.0 tfl#79
Arik Armstead LDT 7.0 tfl#108
DaVon Hamilton RDT 3.0 tfl#324
Josh Hines-Allen RDE 12.0 tfl#20
Foyesade Oluokun WLB 5.0 tfl#169
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86