Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 3 BUF
Our read vs the book
BUF win probability
ours 59%
book 55%
42%
72%
book is 4 pts lower
| spread | total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ours | BUF -3.0 | 49.7 | 59.2% |
| book | BUF -2.5 | 51.5 | 55.1% |
projected BAL 23 – BUF 26 · not a pick ·
how this worksMODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. | |||
The market · opened → now · tap a price to build a ticket
Spreadopened BUF -2.5
BUF -2.5every book · unmoved
BUF -2.5
BAL +2.5
Totalopened 51.5
51.5consensus · unmoved
Over
Under
Moneylineopened BUF -145
BUF -145consensus · unmoved
BUF win
BAL win
Table view all 2 books · every cell a price
| Book | BAL spread | BUF spread | Over | Under | BAL win | BUF win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| Caesars |
Player props
no lines posted yet
No player props posted for this game yet.
Alternate lines
none posted yet
No alternate lines posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 3:00 PM
BAL · 12
| Joe Fagnano | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Elijah Sarratt | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Danny Pinter | C | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Chandler Rivers | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Emery Jones Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
BUF · 12
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
| Cole Bishop | S | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 4.0 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL +0.10 #2
BUF #30 +0.09
BUF
Pass yardsBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL 193 #28
BUF #1 170
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL 157 #2
BUF #28 136
BUF
Pass attackBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL -0.04 #24
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF 234 #13
BAL #29 259
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF +0.16 #6
BAL #21 +0.07
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF 2.4 #19
BAL #29 1.8
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL 41% #15
BUF #24 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF 160 #1
BAL #10 107
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF 46% #3
BAL #10 38%
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF +0.11 #1
BAL #7 -0.05
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · BAL defense
BUF 72% #3
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Red zoneBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL 60% #22
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · BUF defense
BAL 2.6 #21
BUF #20 2.1
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +17
#7 -0.11
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +28
#30 +0.09
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +27
#1 170
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +26
#28 136
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +9
#24 42%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
BUFpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#20
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#43
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#133
2.6 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
BALrun block
line +26
BUFrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#538
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#86
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#110
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#133
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#608
157 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +15
#21 +0.07
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +16
#29 259
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +9
#10 107
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#29 1.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#10 38%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
line +10
BALpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#49
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#74
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#86
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
BUFrun block
line +9
BALrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#380
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#52
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#64
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#349
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#169
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 107