Baltimore Ravens
@
Buffalo Bills
MODEL BUF 59%
Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 3 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
BUF OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +17
#7 -0.11
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +28
#30 +0.09
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +27
#1 170
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +26
#28 136
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +9
#24 42%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +15
#21 +0.07
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +16
#29 259
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +9
#10 107
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#30 1.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#10 38%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 1.8
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #7 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #30 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #7 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #7 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #7 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #7 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #21 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #7 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #21 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #21 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #21 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #21 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.