no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 71%
book 74%
57%
87%
book is 3 pts higher
projected CAR 18 – GB 25 · GB -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -7.25
GB −7.2
1/7
—at the line
| book | GB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
74.4%opened -360
ours 70.9%
4/10
CAR−3.5 pts vs book
| book | GB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 11
| Haynes King | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Etienne | RB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| John Metchie III | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cam Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brady Christensen | G | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Bam Martin-Scott | LB | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
| Albert Reese IV | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Taylor Moton | OT | OUT | Illness |
| Zakee Wheatley | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downGB offense · CAR defense
GB 49% #2
CAR #32 48%
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CAR defense
GB 1.7 #7
CAR #30 1.8
GB
Pass attackGB offense · CAR defense
GB +0.23 #3
CAR #24 +0.11
GB
Pass yardsCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 194 #27
GB #10 207
GB
3rd downCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 36% #25
GB #16 41%
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 2.1 #13
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Red zoneCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 59% #24
GB #17 64%
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · CAR defense
GB 120 #15
CAR #20 123
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
GB
Run gameCAR offense · GB defense
CAR -0.03 #22
GB #17 -0.02
GB
Run gameGB offense · CAR defense
GB -0.01 #19
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Pass yardsGB offense · CAR defense
GB 226 #18
CAR #14 215
CAR
Red zoneGB offense · CAR defense
GB 63% #16
CAR #12 60%
GB
Pass attackCAR offense · GB defense
CAR -0.05 #25
GB #23 +0.08
GB
Run block vs frontCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 116 #19
GB #17 118
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +17
#10 207
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +9
#16 41%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#102
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#129
2.1 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
CARrun block
even
GBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#600
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#125
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#292
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#221
116 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2025
CAR DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +21
#24 +0.11
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#14 215
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +23
#30 1.8
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +30
#32 48%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +23
CARpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#77
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#70
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#72
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
GBrun block
even
CARrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#194
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#338
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#378
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#147
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 123