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Week 8 · 2026-10-29 · 20:15 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 1 – 1 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Trevor Etienne RB out · Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 72% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – GB 27 · GB -7.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -7.25
GB −7.5
1/7
at the line
bookGBCAR
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 5
Trevor EtienneRBOUTAnkle · IR
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Brady ChristensenGOUTHamstring · IR
Bam Martin-ScottLBOUTHamstring · IR
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
GB · 7
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB 3rd downGB offense · CAR defense OFF +30 GB 49% #2 CAR #32 48%
GB Pass attackGB offense · CAR defense OFF +21 GB +0.23 #3 CAR #24 +0.11
GB Pass yardsCAR offense · GB defense DEF +17 CAR 194 #27 GB #10 207
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CAR defense LINE +15 GB 2.1 #14 CAR #29 1.8
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · CAR defense LINE +11 GB 114 #21 CAR #32 148
GB 3rd downCAR offense · GB defense DEF +9 CAR 36% #25 GB #16 41%
GB Red zoneCAR offense · GB defense DEF +7 CAR 59% #24 GB #17 64%
GB Run gameCAR offense · GB defense DEF +5 CAR -0.03 #22 GB #17 -0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
GB Run gameGB offense · CAR defense OFF +5 GB -0.01 #19 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Pass yardsGB offense · CAR defense DEF +4 GB 226 #18 CAR #14 215
CAR Red zoneGB offense · CAR defense DEF +4 GB 63% #16 CAR #12 60%
GB Pass attackCAR offense · GB defense DEF +2 CAR -0.05 #25 GB #23 +0.08
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · GB defense LINE +1 CAR 2.0 #13 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB Run block vs frontCAR offense · GB defense FRONT +0 CAR 117 #15 GB #15 116

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

GB DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

-0.05 #25 Pass attack even #23 +0.08
-0.03 #22 Run game even #17 -0.02
194 #27 Pass yards DEF +17 #10 207
116 #19 Rush yards even #18 118
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush even #20 2.1
36% #25 3rd down DEF +9 #16 41%
59% #24 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro even GBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
CARrun block even GBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#257
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116