no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Trevor Etienne RB out · Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 72%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – GB 27 · GB -7.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -7.25
GB −7.5
1/7
—at the line
| book | GB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 5
| Trevor Etienne | RB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Brady Christensen | G | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Bam Martin-Scott | LB | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
GB · 7
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downGB offense · CAR defense
GB 49% #2
CAR #32 48%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · CAR defense
GB +0.23 #3
CAR #24 +0.11
GB
Pass yardsCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 194 #27
GB #10 207
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CAR defense
GB 2.1 #14
CAR #29 1.8
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · CAR defense
GB 114 #21
CAR #32 148
GB
3rd downCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 36% #25
GB #16 41%
GB
Red zoneCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 59% #24
GB #17 64%
GB
Run gameCAR offense · GB defense
CAR -0.03 #22
GB #17 -0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
GB
Run gameGB offense · CAR defense
GB -0.01 #19
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Pass yardsGB offense · CAR defense
GB 226 #18
CAR #14 215
CAR
Red zoneGB offense · CAR defense
GB 63% #16
CAR #12 60%
GB
Pass attackCAR offense · GB defense
CAR -0.05 #25
GB #23 +0.08
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 2.0 #13
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Run block vs frontCAR offense · GB defense
CAR 117 #15
GB #15 116
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +17
#10 207
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +9
#16 41%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#129
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
CARrun block
even
GBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#609
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#233
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#296
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#257
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +21
#24 +0.11
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#14 215
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +23
#30 1.8
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +30
#32 48%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +15
CARpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#76
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#67
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#77
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
GBrun block
line +11
CARrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#183
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#353
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#452
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#123
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148