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Week 8 · 2026-10-29 · 20:15 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 1 – 1 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 71% book 74%
57%
87%
book is 3 pts higher
projected CAR 18 – GB 25 · GB -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -7.25
GB −7.2
1/7
at the line
bookGBCAR
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Packersmoneyline · wins, last 10
74.4%opened -360
ours 70.9%
4/10
CAR−3.5 pts vs book
bookGBCAR
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 11
Haynes KingQBOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor EtienneRBOUTAnkle · IR
John Metchie IIIWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Tavion SandersTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Cam JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Brady ChristensenGOUTHamstring · IR
Bam Martin-ScottLBOUTHamstring · IR
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
Albert Reese IVOTOUTCoach's Decision
Taylor MotonOTOUTIllness
Zakee WheatleySOUTCoach's Decision
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 3.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB 3rd downGB offense · CAR defense OFF +30 GB 49% #2 CAR #32 48%
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · CAR defense LINE +23 GB 1.7 #7 CAR #30 1.8
GB Pass attackGB offense · CAR defense OFF +21 GB +0.23 #3 CAR #24 +0.11
GB Pass yardsCAR offense · GB defense DEF +17 CAR 194 #27 GB #10 207
GB 3rd downCAR offense · GB defense DEF +9 CAR 36% #25 GB #16 41%
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · GB defense LINE +7 CAR 2.1 #13 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB Red zoneCAR offense · GB defense DEF +7 CAR 59% #24 GB #17 64%
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · CAR defense LINE +5 GB 120 #15 CAR #20 123
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
GB Run gameCAR offense · GB defense DEF +5 CAR -0.03 #22 GB #17 -0.02
GB Run gameGB offense · CAR defense OFF +5 GB -0.01 #19 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Pass yardsGB offense · CAR defense DEF +4 GB 226 #18 CAR #14 215
CAR Red zoneGB offense · CAR defense DEF +4 GB 63% #16 CAR #12 60%
GB Pass attackCAR offense · GB defense DEF +2 CAR -0.05 #25 GB #23 +0.08
GB Run block vs frontCAR offense · GB defense FRONT +2 CAR 116 #19 GB #17 118

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

GB DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

-0.05 #25 Pass attack even #23 +0.08
-0.03 #22 Run game even #17 -0.02
194 #27 Pass yards DEF +17 #10 207
116 #19 Rush yards even #18 118
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush even #20 2.1
36% #25 3rd down DEF +9 #16 41%
59% #24 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro even GBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#102
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
2.1 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
CARrun block even GBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#600
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#125
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#292
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#221
116 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118