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Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 8 · 2026-11-01 · 13:00 · Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 4 – 6 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 22 – DET 25 · DET -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET -5
DET −2.9
3/10
at the line
bookDETMIN
DK
CZR
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 3:45 PM
MIN · 5
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Jordan MasonRBQUESTIONABLEThumb
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays  |  with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
DET · 5
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · DET defense RUSH +30 MIN 3.4 #32 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET 3rd downMIN offense · DET defense DEF +22 MIN 32% #31 DET #9 37%
MIN Run gameDET offense · MIN defense DEF +18 DET -0.04 #24 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN 3rd downDET offense · MIN defense DEF +17 DET 39% #20 MIN #3 35%
DET Pass attackMIN offense · DET defense DEF +16 MIN -0.19 #30 DET #14 -0.01
MIN Pass pro vs rushDET offense · MIN defense RUSH +12 DET 2.1 #15 MIN #3 3.1
DET Run block vs frontMIN offense · DET defense FRONT +12 MIN 108 #24 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET Pass yardsMIN offense · DET defense DEF +9 MIN 189 #30 DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · MIN defense LINE +4 DET 125 #10 MIN #14 116 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Red zoneDET offense · MIN defense DEF +3 DET 70% #5 MIN #2 49%
MIN Pass attackDET offense · MIN defense DEF +2 DET +0.17 #4 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Red zoneMIN offense · DET defense OFF +2 MIN 61% #21 DET #23 68%
DET Run gameMIN offense · DET defense DEF +2 MIN -0.01 #20 DET #18 -0.01
MIN Pass yardsDET offense · MIN defense DEF +1 DET 269 #3 MIN #2 178

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

DET DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DET DEFENSE
-0.19 #30 Pass attack DEF +16 #14 -0.01
-0.01 #20 Run game even #18 -0.01
189 #30 Pass yards DEF +9 #21 237
108 #23 Rush yards DEF +9 #14 115
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush DEF +25 #6 2.8
32% #31 3rd down DEF +22 #9 37%
61% #21 Red zone even #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro rush +30 DETpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#68
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#104
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
MINrun block front +12 DETrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#423
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#368
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#276
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#153
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111