no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 59%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 22 – DET 25 · DET -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DET -5
DET −2.9
3/10
—at the line
| book | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 3:45 PM
MIN · 5
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
| Jordan Mason | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Thumb |
|
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays | with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
DET · 5
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · DET defense
MIN 3.4 #32
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
3rd downMIN offense · DET defense
MIN 32% #31
DET #9 37%
MIN
Run gameDET offense · MIN defense
DET -0.04 #24
MIN #6 -0.05
MIN
3rd downDET offense · MIN defense
DET 39% #20
MIN #3 35%
DET
Pass attackMIN offense · DET defense
MIN -0.19 #30
DET #14 -0.01
MIN
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · MIN defense
DET 2.1 #15
MIN #3 3.1
DET
Run block vs frontMIN offense · DET defense
MIN 108 #24
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET
Pass yardsMIN offense · DET defense
MIN 189 #30
DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · MIN defense
DET 125 #10
MIN #14 116
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN
Red zoneDET offense · MIN defense
DET 70% #5
MIN #2 49%
MIN
Pass attackDET offense · MIN defense
DET +0.17 #4
MIN #2 -0.15
MIN
Red zoneMIN offense · DET defense
MIN 61% #21
DET #23 68%
DET
Run gameMIN offense · DET defense
MIN -0.01 #20
DET #18 -0.01
MIN
Pass yardsDET offense · MIN defense
DET 269 #3
MIN #2 178
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +16
#14 -0.01
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +9
#21 237
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +9
#14 115
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +25
#6 2.8
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +22
#9 37%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +30
DETpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#68
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#104
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
MINrun block
front +12
DETrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#423
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#368
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#276
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#153
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +18
#6 -0.05
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#2 178
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#4 2.9
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +17
#3 35%
70% #5
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
rush +12
MINpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#37
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#49
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
DETrun block
even
MINrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#82
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#23
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116