● Top projected winners
record starts at kickoff
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Oregon
-28.1 · 93%
over Portland State
Ohio State
-24.8 · 91%
over Kent State
Indiana
-18.8 · 84%
over Western Kentucky
Iowa
-18.6 · 84%
over Northern Iowa
Washington
-16.9 · 82%
over Eastern Washington
Notre Dame
-16.7 · 82%
over Michigan State
Penn State
-16.3 · 81%
over Buffalo
Michigan
-16.2 · 81%
over UTEP
Houston B12
Power +8.2 · #48
Texas Tech -11.0
23–34
proj total 56.6 · 72%
2026-09-18 · 8:00 PM
Texas Tech B12
Power +16.8 · #5
Houston offense vs. Texas Tech defense-4.5 pts
Texas Tech offense vs. Houston defense+4.1 pts
Away team travels 468 mi966 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Miami ACC
Power +16.7 · #6
Miami -7.3
29–21
proj total 49.9 · 65%
2026-09-18 · 7:30 PM
Wake Forest ACC
Power +7.0 · #58
Miami offense vs. Wake Forest defense+1.3 pts
Wake Forest offense vs. Miami defense-8.4 pts
Away team travels 703 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
LSU SEC
Power +9.0 · #38
Ole Miss -7.5
25–32
proj total 57.0 · 66%
2026-09-19 · 7:30 PM
Ole Miss SEC
Power +14.1 · #10
Our number
Ole Miss -7.5 · 57.0
The market
Ole Miss -2.5 · 57.5
Win prob · ours vs book
66% vs 54%
LSU offense vs. Ole Miss defense-2.5 pts
Ole Miss offense vs. LSU defense+2.5 pts
SMU ACC
Power +11.9 · #21
Louisville -0.9
28–29
proj total 57.4 · 52%
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM
Louisville ACC
Power +10.5 · #28
Our number
Louisville -0.9 · 57.4
The market
Louisville -1.5
Win prob · ours vs book
52% vs —
SMU offense vs. Louisville defense+0.9 pts
Louisville offense vs. SMU defense-0.6 pts
Away team travels 722 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Georgia SEC
Power +15.0 · #8
Georgia -6.4
34–27
proj total 61.3 · 64%
2026-09-19 · 12:00 PM
Arkansas SEC
Power +6.2 · #65
Georgia offense vs. Arkansas defense+6.5 pts
Arkansas offense vs. Georgia defense-2.3 pts
Away team travels 628 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
NC State ACC
Power +7.8 · #52
Vanderbilt -7.8
29–37
proj total 65.5 · 66%
2026-09-19 · 12:45 PM
Vanderbilt SEC
Power +13.2 · #12
NC State offense vs. Vanderbilt defense+1.5 pts
Vanderbilt offense vs. NC State defense+6.9 pts
Away team travels 453 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Florida State ACC
Power +7.3 · #57
Alabama -7.3
25–32
proj total 57.3 · 65%
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM
Alabama SEC
Power +12.2 · #18
Our number
Alabama -7.3 · 57.3
The market
Alabama -15.5
Win prob · ours vs book
65% vs —
Florida State offense vs. Alabama defense-2.3 pts
Alabama offense vs. Florida State defense+2.6 pts
Away team on 5 more days rest
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Kentucky SEC
Power +6.2 · #66
Texas A&M -9.5
23–32
proj total 55.1 · 70%
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM
Texas A&M SEC
Power +13.3 · #11
Kentucky offense vs. Texas A&M defense-4.5 pts
Texas A&M offense vs. Kentucky defense+2.6 pts
Away team travels 846 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
USC B1G
Power +12.6 · #15
USC -5.1
36–30
proj total 66.0 · 61%
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM
Rutgers B1G
Power +5.1 · #79
USC offense vs. Rutgers defense+8.2 pts
Rutgers offense vs. USC defense+0.8 pts
Away team travels 2,426 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Florida SEC
Power +6.7 · #62
Auburn -4.7
22–27
proj total 48.6 · 60%
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Auburn SEC
Power +8.9 · #41
Our number
Auburn -4.7 · 48.6
The market
Auburn +0.0
Win prob · ours vs book
60% vs —
Florida offense vs. Auburn defense-5.3 pts
Auburn offense vs. Florida defense-3.1 pts
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — see all 128 games.