BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

On the board
0 priced of 114
Median gap
—
Straight up
104–32
Model state
—
Wk 0 Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Miami
-18.4 · 76%
over Clemson
-325 DraftKings
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence

No game on this slate has a book spread to compare against yet.

Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line

No game on this slate has a book total to compare against yet.

Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week

No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.

All games 114 Sheet Panels All games
KickoffMatchupDivOur side Our projectionMarket Best number (tap to add)
2026-10-018:00 PM Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State Las Cruces, NM FBS NMSU to winWKU 54% 29–28 · 56.6 — no line
2026-10-019:00 PM North Texas @ Tulsa Tulsa, OK FBS UNT to winUNT 81% 33–24 · 57.4 — no line
2026-10-027:00 PM ● Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA FBS PITT to winPITT 67% 29–25 · 54.4 — no line
2026-10-027:00 PM Liberty @ Delaware Newark, DE FBS DEL to winDEL 66% 22–30 · 51.9 — no line
2026-10-028:00 PM ● Penn State @ Northwestern Evanston, IL FBS PSU to winPSU 72% 24–21 · 45.8 — no line
2026-10-0210:30 PM Montana State @ Idaho Moscow, ID FCS MTST to winMTST 94% 42–17 · 59.5 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Vanderbilt @ Georgia Athens, GA FBS UGA to winUGA 58% 23–33 · 56.0 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Alabama @ Mississippi State Starkville, MS FBS ALA to winALA 76% 32–24 · 55.9 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Florida @ Missouri Columbia, MO FBS MIZ to winFLA 55% 26–26 · 51.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Kentucky @ South Carolina Columbia, SC FBS SC to winSC 63% 20–30 · 50.2 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Auburn @ Tennessee Knoxville, TN FBS TENN to winTENN 68% 21–32 · 52.9 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Arkansas @ Texas A&M College Station, TX FBS TA&M to winTA&M 92% 16–40 · 56.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Middle Tennessee @ Kansas Lawrence, KS FBS KU to winKU 80% 20–33 · 52.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Baylor @ Arizona State Tempe, AZ FBS BAY to winBAY 53% 29–25 · 54.1 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● BYU @ TCU Fort Worth, TX FBS BYU to winBYU 64% 29–19 · 48.5 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● UCF @ Houston Houston, TX FBS HOU to winHOU 55% 22–26 · 47.2 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Cincinnati @ Arizona Tucson, AZ FBS ARIZ to winARIZ 70% 19–32 · 50.4 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Texas Tech @ Colorado Boulder, CO FBS TTU to winTTU 74% 32–21 · 53.2 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● West Virginia @ Iowa State Ames, IA FBS ISU to winISU 80% 19–31 · 49.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Boston College @ SMU Dallas, TX FBS SMU to winSMU 93% 12–41 · 52.8 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Louisville @ NC State Raleigh, NC FBS LOU to winLOU 65% 28–26 · 54.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Miami @ Clemson Clemson, SC FBS MIA to winMIA 76% 34–15 · 49.3 —
2026-10-03TBD ● Notre Dame @ North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC FBS ND to winND 90% 35–14 · 48.8 —
2026-10-03TBD ● Stanford @ Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC FBS WAKE to winWAKE 81% 19–35 · 54.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Virginia @ Florida State Tallahassee, FL FBS UVA to winUVA 61% 28–21 · 49.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Purdue @ Illinois Champaign, IL FBS ILL to winILL 74% 20–33 · 52.9 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Ohio State @ Iowa Iowa City, IA FBS OSU to winOSU 69% 27–18 · 45.4 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Michigan @ Minnesota Minneapolis, MN FBS MICH to winMICH 79% 30–15 · 44.4 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Maryland @ Nebraska Lincoln, NE FBS NEB to winNEB 70% 22–32 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Washington @ USC Los Angeles, CA FBS USC to winUSC 66% 20–30 · 50.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD ● Michigan State @ Wisconsin Madison, WI FBS MSU to winWIS 53% 23–24 · 46.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Memphis @ Charlotte Charlotte, NC FBS MEM to winMEM 93% 35–17 · 51.9 — no line
2026-10-03TBD UTSA @ Rice Houston, TX FBS UTSA to winUTSA 81% 34–19 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Temple @ South Florida Tampa, FL FBS USF to winUSF 78% 21–32 · 53.1 — no line
2026-10-03TBD UTEP @ New Mexico Albuquerque, NM FBS UNM to winUNM 84% 18–35 · 53.3 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Akron @ Central Michigan Mount Pleasant, MI FBS AKR to winAKR 59% 29–20 · 49.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Toledo @ Ball State Muncie, IN FBS TOL to winTOL 76% 32–20 · 52.0 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Western Michigan @ Buffalo Buffalo, NY FBS WMU to winWMU 87% 34–15 · 49.1 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts Amherst, MA FBS MASS to winMASS 56% 24–28 · 51.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Ohio @ Kent State Kent, OH FBS OHIO to winOHIO 62% 31–23 · 54.0 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) Oxford, OH FBS M-OH to winM-OH 69% 21–30 · 51.1 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Wagner @ Central Connecticut New Britain, CT FCS CCSU to winCCSU 76% 24–35 · 58.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Army @ Louisiana Tech Ruston, LA FBS ARMY to winARMY 67% 26–22 · 47.8 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Arkansas State @ Louisiana Lafayette, LA FBS UL to winUL 68% 24–32 · 55.4 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina Conway, SC FBS GASO to winCCU 51% 26–28 · 54.4 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Old Dominion @ Georgia State Atlanta, GA FBS ODU to winODU 63% 28–26 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-03TBD Marshall @ James Madison Harrisonburg, VA FBS JMU to winJMU 75% 24–30 · 53.5 — no line
2026-10-03TBD UL Monroe @ South Alabama Mobile, AL FBS USA to winUSA 80% 21–32 · 53.0 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM ● Syracuse @ UConn East Hartford, CT FBS SYR to winSYR 52% 27–25 · 52.6 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Navy @ Air Force USAF Academy, CO FBS NAVY to winAF 51% 25–26 · 51.1 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Brown @ Rhode Island Pawtucket, RI FCS URI to winURI 87% 19–38 · 57.2 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Princeton @ Columbia New York, NY FCS PRIN to winPRIN 57% 24–21 · 44.9 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Mercyhurst @ Long Island University Brookville, NY FCS LIU to winLIU 59% 24–28 · 52.6 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Fordham @ Lehigh Bethlehem, PA FCS LEH to winLEH 98% 8–42 · 50.3 — no line
2026-10-0312:00 PM Merrimack @ Yale New Haven, CT FCS YALE to winYALE 92% 14–36 · 49.9 — no line
2026-10-0312:30 PM Cornell @ Georgetown Washington, DC FCS COR to winCOR 60% 28–24 · 52.6 — no line
2026-10-0312:30 PM Richmond @ Lafayette Easton, PA FCS RICH to winRICH 61% 31–26 · 57.4 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Elon @ New Hampshire Durham, NH FCS ELON to winELON 70% 32–23 · 54.5 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Towson @ Monmouth West Long Branch, NJ FCS MONM to winMONM 71% 26–35 · 60.6 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Morgan State @ Villanova Philadelphia, PA FCS VILL to winVILL 80% 19–33 · 51.9 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Dayton @ Drake Des Moines, IA FCS DAY to winDAY 70% 31–23 · 53.9 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Marist @ Stetson DeLand, FL FCS MRST to winMRST 63% 28–23 · 50.8 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM Valparaiso @ Morehead State Morehead, KY FCS MORE to winMORE 65% 28–34 · 62.6 — no line
2026-10-031:00 PM St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Presbyterian Clinton, SC FCS STMN to winSTMN 58% 32–29 · 61.4 — no line
2026-10-031:30 PM Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth Hanover, NH FCS DART to winDART 64% 25–31 · 56.4 — no line
2026-10-031:30 PM Mercer @ VMI Lexington, VA FCS MER to winMER 94% 38–13 · 51.6 — no line
2026-10-032:00 PM Murray State @ North Dakota Grand Forks, ND FCS UND to winUND 99% 9–50 · 58.4 — no line
2026-10-032:00 PM Norfolk State @ Robert Morris Moon Township, PA FCS RMU to winRMU 55% 25–27 · 51.9 — no line
2026-10-032:00 PM The Citadel @ South Carolina State Orangeburg, SC FCS SCST to winSCST 90% 22–42 · 64.1 — no line
2026-10-032:00 PM Wofford @ Furman Greenville, SC FCS FUR to winFUR 65% 18–25 · 43.0 — no line
2026-10-033:00 PM Howard @ Hampton Washington, DC · neutral FCS HOW to winHOW 80% 32–18 · 49.6 — no line
2026-10-033:00 PM Indiana State @ South Dakota Vermillion, SD FCS SDAK to winSDAK 93% 19–43 · 61.8 — no line
2026-10-033:00 PM Alcorn State @ Grambling Grambling, LA FCS GRAM to winGRAM 76% 26–37 · 62.7 — no line
2026-10-033:00 PM Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State Itta Bena, MS FCS PV to winPV 89% 38–18 · 56.5 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM ● California @ UNLV Las Vegas, NV FBS UNLV to winUNLV 63% 24–28 · 52.2 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Samford @ UAB Birmingham, AL FCS FBS UAB to winUAB 95% 14–41 · 55.5 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Wyoming @ North Dakota State Fargo, ND FBS FCS NDSU to winNDSU 87% 15–33 · 47.9 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Sacred Heart @ Maine Orono, ME FCS ME to winME 62% 23–28 · 50.9 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Delaware State @ UAlbany Albany, NY FCS UALB to winUALB 60% 22–27 · 48.9 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Holy Cross @ William & Mary Williamsburg, VA FCS W&M to winW&M 83% 20–35 · 54.3 — no line
2026-10-033:30 PM Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State Johnson City, TN FCS ETSU to winETSU 67% 25–32 · 57.6 — no line
2026-10-034:00 PM Northern Colorado @ Montana Missoula, MT FCS MONT to winMONT 91% 16–37 · 53.2 — no line
2026-10-034:00 PM Tennessee State @ Western Illinois Macomb, IL FCS WIU to winWIU 81% 20–34 · 53.3 — no line
2026-10-034:00 PM Davidson @ San Diego San Diego, CA FCS USD to winUSD 74% 25–36 · 61.0 — no line
2026-10-034:00 PM Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman Daytona Beach, FL FCS ALST to winALST 50% 31–31 · 61.5 — no line
2026-10-035:00 PM Youngstown State @ Southern Illinois Carbondale, IL FCS YSU to winYSU 52% 33–32 · 65.1 — no line
2026-10-035:00 PM New Haven @ Austin Peay Clarksville, TN FCS APSU to winAPSU 98% 12–45 · 56.8 — no line
2026-10-035:00 PM Alabama A&M @ Jackson State Mobile, AL · neutral FCS JKST to winJKST 73% 26–35 · 60.8 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Oregon State @ Colorado State Fort Collins, CO FBS CSU to winCSU 61% 23–28 · 50.6 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic Boca Raton, FL FCS FBS FAU to winFAU 97% 18–49 · 66.5 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM North Carolina A&T @ Bryant Smithfield, RI FCS BRY to winBRY 89% 17–37 · 54.1 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Campbell @ North Carolina Central Durham, NC FCS CAM to winCAM 61% 32–27 · 58.3 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky Richmond, KY FCS UNA to winUNA 59% 28–24 · 52.4 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern Charleston, SC FCS GWEB to winGWEB 64% 26–20 · 46.8 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin Nacogdoches, TX FCS SFA to winSFA 84% 22–38 · 59.5 — no line
2026-10-036:00 PM Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina Cullowhee, NC FCS TNTC to winTNTC 73% 36–26 · 61.7 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM Chicago State @ Tarleton State Stephenville, TX NON-D1 FCS TAR to winTAR 94% 18–44 · 61.2 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM Colgate @ Harvard Cambridge, MA FCS HARV to winHARV 81% 22–36 · 58.2 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM South Dakota State @ Illinois State Normal, IL FCS ILST to winILST 74% 25–35 · 60.2 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M Commerce, TX FCS UT R to winUT R 75% 34–23 · 56.4 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern Baton Rouge, LA FCS SOU to winSOU 51% 32–32 · 64.1 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM Northwestern State @ Lamar Beaumont, TX FCS LAM to winLAM 97% 11–42 · 52.8 — no line
2026-10-037:00 PM Nicholls @ Houston Christian Houston, TX FCS NICH to winNICH 69% 32–24 · 55.9 — no line
2026-10-037:30 PM Utah State @ Boise State Boise, ID FBS BOIS to winBOIS 83% 21–35 · 55.3 — no line
2026-10-037:45 PM McNeese @ LSU Baton Rouge, LA FCS FBS LSU to winLSU 99% 7–46 · 53.4 — no line
2026-10-038:00 PM ● Indiana @ Rutgers Piscataway, NJ FBS IU to winIU 97% 41–13 · 53.5 — no line
2026-10-038:00 PM West Florida @ Abilene Christian Abilene, TX NON-D1 FCS WEST to winWEST 53% 27–26 · 53.3 — no line
2026-10-038:00 PM Weber State @ Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA FCS CP to winCP 63% 29–34 · 63.7 — no line
2026-10-038:00 PM Northern Arizona @ Idaho State Pocatello, ID FCS IDST to winIDST 77% 24–36 · 60.0 — no line
2026-10-038:00 PM Southern Utah @ Utah Tech Saint George, UT FCS SUU to winSUU 70% 34–26 · 60.0 — no line
2026-10-039:30 PM Fresno State @ Washington State Pullman, WA FBS WSU to winFRES 61% 23–22 · 45.6 — no line
2026-10-0310:30 PM Texas State @ San Diego State San Diego, CA FBS SDSU to winSDSU 57% 26–27 · 53.1 — no line
2026-10-0310:30 PM Eastern Washington @ UC Davis Davis, CA FCS UCD to winUCD 78% 23–36 · 59.6 — no line
2026-10-0311:59 PM San José State @ Hawai'i Honolulu, HI FBS SJSU to winHAW 50% 25–28 · 53.1 — no line

Every row links to its full breakdown.