← Matchups

Washington

B1G · 2-0 · power +21.1 · #31
Our numberUSC -10.4 no book has priced this game

USC

B1G · 3-0 · power +26.1 · #14
Our side
MoneylineUSC to win ours 66%
Projected score 20–30 WASH – USC
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series USC lead 52–32–4 · 88 meetings since 1923
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Washington Huskies 139 ranks
Washington Huskies #18 rush offense USC Trojans #157 run defense
Pass game edge Washington Huskies 56 ranks
Washington Huskies #29 pass offense USC Trojans #85 pass defense
Run game even 18 ranks apart
USC Trojans #50 rush offense Washington Huskies #32 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 51 ranks
USC Trojans #9 pass offense Washington Huskies #60 pass defense
Washington Huskies Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg USC Trojans Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Jedd Fisch · 32-33 Lincoln Riley · 90-28 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Washington Huskies
DB Alex McLaughlin 15 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #1 DB
QB Demond Williams Jr. 517 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT #25 QB
DL Derek Colman-Brusa 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #175 DL
TE Baron Naone 8 rec · 70 yds #60 TE
USC Trojans
WR Trent Mosley 13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD #13 WR
QB Jayden Maiava 896 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #7 QB
TE Mark Bowman 12 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD #10 TE
P Lachlan Carrigan 3 punts · 46.7 yd avg #8 P

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Washington HuskiesB1G +21.1 +7.1 +14.1 #31
USC TrojansB1G +26.1 +16.9 +9.2 #14

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Washington offense vs USC defense-2.1 pts
USC offense vs Washington defense+2.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 965 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.