Our side
MoneylineUNA to win
ours 41%
Projected score
28–24
UNA – EKU
2026-10-03 · 6:00 PM
Roy Kidd Stadium · Richmond, KY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Eastern Kentucky lead
3–1
· 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Alabama Lions
57 ranks
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #182 run defense
Pass game
edge Eastern Kentucky Colonels
156 ranks
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #54 pass defense
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #192 rush offense
North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game
even
7 ranks apart
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #253 pass offense
North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
North Alabama Lions
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Alabama Lions
DB
Tae Martin
23 tkl · 4 PD
#11 DB
DL
Avery Howard
17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#20 DL
WR
Xavier Johnson
19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD
#14 WR
DL
Cayden Adkins
11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#29 DL
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
LB
Cam Jessee
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#42 LB
DB
Derek Taylor
24 tkl
#137 DB
RB
Brady Hensley
225 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#62 RB
DB
Jeffrey Kinley
19 tkl · 1 PD
#266 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Alabama offense vs Eastern Kentucky defense-1.4 pts
Eastern Kentucky offense vs North Alabama defense-5.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.8
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.