Our side
MoneylineUT R to win
ours 25%
Projected score
34–23
UT R – ETAM
2026-10-03 · 7:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) · Commerce, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UT Rio Grande Valley lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
168 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
206 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
110 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
225 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
East Texas A&M Lions
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
East Texas A&M Lions
DB
Tramar Gilbert
23 tkl · 1 PD
#39 DB
WR
Micah Simpson
17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD
#29 WR
DL
Duncan Parham
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#86 DL
DB
Jamari Mosley
11 tkl · 2 PD
#220 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs East Texas A&M defense+6.8 pts
East Texas A&M offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense-6.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-10.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 499 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.