Our side
MoneylineBYU to win
ours 36%
Projected score
29–19
BYU – TCU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
TCU lead
7–6
· 13 meetings since 1987
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge BYU Cougars
65 ranks
BYU Cougars #43 rush offense
TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game
edge BYU Cougars
61 ranks
BYU Cougars #99 pass offense
TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
Run game
edge BYU Cougars
90 ranks
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense
BYU Cougars #63 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense
BYU Cougars #59 pass defense
BYU Cougars
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg
TCU Horned Frogs
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Kalani Sitake · 84-45
Sonny Dykes · 79-46
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
BYU Cougars
QB
Bear Bachmeier
415 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
#12 QB
DL
Tausili Akana
4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#171 DL
WR
Legend Glasker
6 rec · 139 yds · 2 TD
#113 WR
WR
Kyler Kasper
8 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD
#116 WR
TCU Horned Frogs
TE
Kari Ashley
10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD
#6 TE
DB
Teon Parks
1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#65 DB
DL
Ansel Din-Mbuh
6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#98 DL
RB
Jeremy Payne
221 rush yds · 6 rec
#81 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
BYU offense vs TCU defense+6.1 pts
TCU offense vs BYU defense-1.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 948 mi
Altitude · context only1,230 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.