Our side
MoneylineYSU to win
ours 48%
Projected score
33–32
YSU – SIU
2026-10-03 · 5:00 PM
Saluki Stadium · Carbondale, IL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Youngstown State lead
12–11
· 23 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
132 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
173 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
187 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
174 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
Southern Illinois Salukis
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL
Ibrahim Sanogo
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#15 DL
LB
Ben Fiegel
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL
#28 LB
LB
Andrew Behm
18 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#122 LB
WR
Kyle Thomas
6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
#218 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs Southern Illinois defense+8.8 pts
Southern Illinois offense vs Youngstown State defense+8.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 514 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.