Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 84%
Projected score
22–38
UIW – SFA
2026-10-03 · 6:00 PM
Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
6–3
· 9 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
152 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
144 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
104 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL
Jeremiah Young
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#28 DL
RB
Lontrell Turner
153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#60 RB
LB
Christian Barney
18 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#103 LB
WR
Isaiah Champagne
12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD
#159 WR
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Incarnate Word offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-3.0 pts
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Incarnate Word defense+9.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.