← Matchups

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Our numberTA&M -24.3 no book has priced this game

Texas A&M

SEC · 2-0 · power +31.6 · #5
Our side
MoneylineTA&M to win ours 92%
Projected score 16–40 ARK – TA&M
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Kyle Field · College Station, TX SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arkansas lead 42–37–3 · 82 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Arkansas Razorbacks 164 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense Texas A&M Aggies #177 run defense
Pass game edge Texas A&M Aggies 60 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense Texas A&M Aggies #14 pass defense
Run game edge Texas A&M Aggies 169 ranks
Texas A&M Aggies #67 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game edge Texas A&M Aggies 182 ranks
Texas A&M Aggies #55 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg Texas A&M Aggies Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded Mike Elko · 35-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB
Texas A&M Aggies
DL Marco Jones 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #10 DL
DB Julio Humphrey 2 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #84 DB
WR Isaiah Horton 7 rec · 109 yds · 3 TD #82 WR
DL T.J. Searcy 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #166 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80
Texas A&M AggiesSEC +31.6 +16.2 +15.4 #5

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense-9.6 pts
Texas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense+11.7 pts
Altitude · context only301 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.