On the board
41 priced of 128
Median gap
4.2
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
● Top projected winners
76% · 104-32 this season
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Top projected winners
ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-335 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-385 FanDuel
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-350 FanDuel
Arizona State
-5.8 · 62%
over Kansas
-205 DraftKings
North Carolina
-1.6 · 61%
over Clemson
+295 DraftKings
Northwestern
-8.0 · 60%
over Colorado
-148 DraftKings
Maryland
-4.2 · 58%
over Virginia Tech
+140 ESPN Bet
Florida
-1.7 · 58%
over Auburn
-135 DraftKings
Top spread reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+2.5
we differ by 2.7 pts
-105 DraftKings
Alabama
-18.5
we differ by 3.5 pts
best -17.5 -105 DraftKings
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-108 FanDuel
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
-102 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
-110 DraftKings
Mississippi State
+4.5
we differ by 2.3 pts
best +5.5 -105 DraftKings
Vanderbilt
-5.5
we differ by 4.0 pts
Arkansas
+23.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-110 FanDuel
Top total reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-108 DraftKings
Over 50.5
+0.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Over 48.5
+5.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
-102 DraftKings
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 FanDuel
Over 52.5
+2.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 51.5 -110 DraftKings
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-110 ESPN Bet
Over 52.5
+1.0 pts
NCSU @ VAN · ours 53.5
Over 53.5
+3.0 pts
UGA @ ARK · ours 56.5
best 52.5 -108 DraftKings
Top team totals
our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week
No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.
Our side
SpreadMISS +2.5
TotalUnder 58.5
MoneylineLSU to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
MISS +2.5 · 58.5
The gap
2.7 pts · -3.5 total
Win prob · ours vs book
50% vs 45%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM · SEC game
| Book | LSU spread | MISS spread | Over | Under | LSU win | MISS win | LSU TT over | LSU TT under | MISS TT over | MISS TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
LSU off vs MISS def +4.1 · MISS off vs LSU def +2.0
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadALA -18.5
TotalOver 50.5
MoneylineALA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
ALA -18.5 · 50.5
The gap
3.5 pts · +0.2 total
Win prob · ours vs book
86% vs 89%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM
| Book | FSU spread | ALA spread | Over | Under | FSU win | ALA win | FSU TT over | FSU TT under | ALA TT over | ALA TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
FSU off vs ALA def -7.9 · ALA off vs FSU def +9.9
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadWAKE +22.5
TotalUnder 55.5
MoneylineMIA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
WAKE +22.5 · 55.5
The gap
5.5 pts · -3.4 total
Win prob · ours vs book
28% vs 8%
Kickoff
Fri Sep 18 · 7:30 PM · ACC game
| Book | MIA spread | WAKE spread | Over | Under | MIA win | WAKE win | MIA TT over | MIA TT under | WAKE TT over | WAKE TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
MIA off vs WAKE def +8.1 · WAKE off vs MIA def -4.5
Away team travels 703 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadAUB +2.5
MoneylineAUB to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
AUB +2.5
The gap
0.8 pts
Win prob · ours vs book
57% vs 45%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM · SEC game
| Book | FLA spread | AUB spread | Over | Under | FLA win | AUB win | FLA TT over | FLA TT under | AUB TT over | AUB TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
FLA off vs AUB def -5.8 · AUB off vs FLA def -4.5
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadTTU -9.5
TotalOver 52.5
MoneylineTTU to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
TTU -9.5 · 52.5
The gap
0.9 pts · +2.1 total
Win prob · ours vs book
79% vs 76%
Kickoff
Fri Sep 18 · 8:00 PM · B12 game
| Book | HOU spread | TTU spread | Over | Under | HOU win | TTU win | HOU TT over | HOU TT under | TTU TT over | TTU TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
HOU off vs TTU def -3.3 · TTU off vs HOU def +9.7
Away team travels 468 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadMSST +4.5
TotalUnder 58.5
MoneylineMSST to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
SC -4.5 · 58.5
The gap
2.3 pts · -4.3 total
Win prob · ours vs book
49% vs 63%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 4:15 PM · SEC game
| Book | MSST spread | SC spread | Over | Under | MSST win | SC win | MSST TT over | MSST TT under | SC TT over | SC TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
MSST off vs SC def +3.6 · SC off vs MSST def +1.4
Away team travels 448 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadVAN -5.5
TotalOver 52.5
MoneylineVAN to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
VAN -5.5 · 52.5
The gap
4.0 pts · +1.0 total
Win prob · ours vs book
71% vs 63%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 12:45 PM
| Book | NCSU spread | VAN spread | Over | Under | NCSU win | VAN win | NCSU TT over | NCSU TT under | VAN TT over | VAN TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
NCSU off vs VAN def -1.4 · VAN off vs NCSU def +6.6
Away team travels 453 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadARK +23.5
TotalOver 53.5
MoneylineUGA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
ARK +23.5 · 53.5
The gap
5.5 pts · +3.0 total
Win prob · ours vs book
27% vs 7%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM · SEC game
| Book | UGA spread | ARK spread | Over | Under | UGA win | ARK win | UGA TT over | UGA TT under | ARK TT over | ARK TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
UGA off vs ARK def +11.9 · ARK off vs UGA def -1.1
Away team travels 628 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadUVA -9.5
MoneylineUVA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
UVA -9.5
The gap
2.0 pts
Win prob · ours vs book
74% vs 75%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM · neutral
| Book | WVU spread | UVA spread | Over | Under | WVU win | UVA win | WVU TT over | WVU TT under | UVA TT over | UVA TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
WVU off vs UVA def -7.7 · UVA off vs WVU def +4.6
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadUCLA -13.5
TotalUnder 52.5
MoneylineUCLA to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
The book
UCLA -13.5 · 52.5
The gap
4.3 pts · -0.5 total
Win prob · ours vs book
75% vs 82%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM · B1G game
| Book | PUR spread | UCLA spread | Over | Under | PUR win | UCLA win | PUR TT over | PUR TT under | UCLA TT over | UCLA TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
PUR off vs UCLA def -3.4 · UCLA off vs PUR def +6.8
Away team travels 1,761 mi
Full breakdown →
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — the sheet carries all 41 priced games.