BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

On the board
0 priced of 109
Median gap
—
Straight up
104–32
Model state
—
Wk 0 Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Alabama
-5.1 · 77%
over Georgia
+136 DraftKings
Texas
-8.1 · 66%
over Oklahoma
-218 DraftKings
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence

No game on this slate has a book spread to compare against yet.

Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line

No game on this slate has a book total to compare against yet.

Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week

No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.

All games 109 Sheet Panels All games
KickoffMatchupDivOur side Our projectionMarket Best number (tap to add)
2026-10-068:00 PM Southern Miss @ Troy Troy, AL FBS TROY to winUSM 52% 26–26 · 51.8 — no line
2026-10-077:00 PM Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State Kennesaw, GA FBS JXST to winJXST 57% 27–26 · 52.9 — no line
2026-10-077:30 PM New Mexico State @ Florida International Miami, FL FBS FIU to winFIU 68% 22–30 · 51.6 — no line
2026-10-087:00 PM Sam Houston @ Liberty Lynchburg, VA FBS LIB to winLIB 73% 21–28 · 48.9 — no line
2026-10-087:00 PM Missouri State @ Western Kentucky Bowling Green, KY FBS MOST to winMOST 62% 30–26 · 56.3 — no line
2026-10-087:30 PM South Florida @ UTSA San Antonio, TX FBS UTSA to winUTSA 54% 25–32 · 57.0 — no line
2026-10-087:30 PM South Alabama @ Arkansas State Jonesboro, AR FBS USA to winUSA 53% 28–26 · 53.3 — no line
2026-10-097:00 PM ● Florida State @ Louisville Louisville, KY FBS LOU to winLOU 68% 22–31 · 52.8 — no line
2026-10-097:00 PM Columbia @ Marist Poughkeepsie, NY FCS MRST to winMRST 62% 18–23 · 41.9 — no line
2026-10-099:00 PM ● Iowa @ Washington Seattle, WA FBS IOWA to winIOWA 54% 24–21 · 44.8 — no line
2026-10-099:00 PM Washington State @ Utah State Logan, UT FBS WSU to winWSU 57% 26–24 · 50.3 — no line
2026-10-099:00 PM Wyoming @ San José State San Jose, CA FBS SJSU to winSJSU 71% 22–28 · 50.5 — no line
2026-10-0910:15 PM ● Iowa State @ BYU Provo, UT FBS BYU to winBYU 62% 18–29 · 46.8 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Georgia @ Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL FBS ALA to winALA 77% 25–30 · 54.8 —
2026-10-10TBD ● Tennessee @ Arkansas Fayetteville, AR FBS TENN to winTENN 82% 38–21 · 58.5 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● South Carolina @ Florida Gainesville, FL FBS FLA to winFLA 59% 23–28 · 50.9 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● LSU @ Kentucky Lexington, KY FBS LSU to winLSU 75% 33–18 · 51.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Texas A&M @ Missouri Columbia, MO FBS TA&M to winTA&M 72% 31–22 · 53.4 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt Nashville, TN FBS MISS to winMISS 53% 30–27 · 56.9 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Hawai'i @ Arizona State Tempe, AZ FBS ASU to winASU 80% 17–34 · 51.6 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Arizona @ West Virginia Morgantown, WV FBS ARIZ to winARIZ 75% 31–22 · 52.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● UCF @ Oklahoma State Stillwater, OK FBS UCF to winUCF 60% 26–21 · 47.7 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Houston @ Kansas State Manhattan, KS FBS KSU to winKSU 78% 19–32 · 51.6 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Kansas @ Utah Salt Lake City, UT FBS UTAH to winUTAH 92% 14–40 · 53.5 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Duke @ Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA FBS DUKE to winDUKE 68% 29–22 · 51.2 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● North Carolina @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA FBS PITT to winPITT 72% 22–28 · 49.4 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Syracuse @ Virginia Charlottesville, VA FBS UVA to winUVA 88% 16–34 · 49.5 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Virginia Tech @ California Berkeley, CA FBS VT to winVT 58% 32–22 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Wake Forest @ NC State Raleigh, NC FBS WAKE to winNCSU 52% 25–29 · 53.9 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Illinois @ Michigan State East Lansing, MI FBS ILL to winILL 53% 26–24 · 50.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Indiana @ Nebraska Lincoln, NE FBS IU to winIU 77% 32–22 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Ball State @ Northwestern Evanston, IL FBS NU to winNU 86% 14–36 · 49.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● Maryland @ Ohio State Columbus, OH FBS OSU to winOSU 93% 13–36 · 49.0 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● UCLA @ Oregon Eugene, OR FBS ORE to winORE 69% 24–30 · 53.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD ● USC @ Penn State University Park, PA FBS PSU to winPSU 60% 25–26 · 50.7 —
2026-10-10TBD ● Minnesota @ Purdue West Lafayette, IN FBS PUR to winPUR 62% 23–27 · 50.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD UConn @ Temple Philadelphia, PA FBS TEM to winTEM 68% 20–33 · 53.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Charlotte @ North Texas Denton, TX FBS UNT to winUNT 98% 15–42 · 56.7 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Rice @ East Carolina Greenville, NC FBS ECU to winECU 71% 21–30 · 51.4 — no line
2026-10-10TBD UAB @ Memphis Memphis, TN FBS MEM to winMEM 87% 21–34 · 55.0 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Nevada @ UTEP El Paso, TX FBS NEV to winNEV 64% 27–25 · 52.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Sacramento State @ Bowling Green Bowling Green, OH FCS FBS BGSU to winBGSU 83% 18–33 · 51.3 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Buffalo @ Toledo Toledo, OH FBS TOL to winTOL 89% 15–38 · 52.8 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Central Michigan @ Ohio Athens, OH FBS OHIO to winOHIO 75% 20–29 · 49.4 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Kent State @ Western Michigan Kalamazoo, MI FBS WMU to winWMU 89% 14–36 · 49.7 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts Amherst, MA FBS M-OH to winM-OH 63% 27–25 · 51.8 — no line
2026-10-10TBD American International @ Central Connecticut New Britain, CT NON-D1 FCS CCSU to winCCSU 62% 27–32 · 58.4 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Princeton @ Wagner Staten Island, NY FCS PRIN to winPRIN 63% 27–22 · 49.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Old Dominion @ App State Boone, NC FBS APP to winAPP 50% 26–28 · 54.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Coastal Carolina @ Marshall Huntington, WV FBS MRSH to winMRSH 58% 26–31 · 56.9 — no line
2026-10-10TBD James Madison @ Georgia Southern Statesboro, GA FBS JMU to winJMU 65% 30–22 · 51.1 — no line
2026-10-10TBD Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech Ruston, LA FBS UL to winUL 61% 32–24 · 55.0 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Tulane @ Army West Point, NY FBS ARMY to winARMY 54% 20–24 · 43.6 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM New Hampshire @ North Carolina A&T Greensboro, NC FCS UNH to winUNH 74% 35–24 · 59.5 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Stonehill @ Sacred Heart Fairfield, CT FCS SHU to winSHU 60% 22–26 · 47.4 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Bryant @ Brown Providence, RI FCS BRY to winBRY 51% 28–28 · 56.3 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Dartmouth @ Yale New Haven, CT FCS YALE to winYALE 76% 21–33 · 53.7 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Robert Morris @ Morgan State Baltimore, MD FCS RMU to winRMU 55% 25–23 · 47.5 — no line
2026-10-1012:00 PM Morehead State @ Dayton Dayton, OH FCS DAY to winDAY 85% 21–37 · 58.0 — no line
2026-10-1012:30 PM Bucknell @ Georgetown Washington, DC FCS BUCK to winBUCK 55% 27–25 · 51.3 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Harvard @ Cornell Ithaca, NY FCS HARV to winHARV 86% 37–20 · 57.4 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Youngstown State @ Indiana State Terre Haute, IN FCS YSU to winYSU 81% 40–26 · 65.4 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Long Island University @ Duquesne Pittsburgh, PA FCS DUQ to winDUQ 61% 24–29 · 53.2 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Franklin Pierce @ Delaware State Dover, DE NON-D1 FCS DSU to winDSU 54% 26–28 · 54.5 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Howard @ Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA FCS PENN to winPENN 67% 24–31 · 55.2 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM William & Mary @ North Carolina Central Durham, NC FCS W&M to winW&M 58% 31–28 · 59.0 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM San Diego @ Butler Indianapolis, IN FCS BUT to winBUT 80% 23–37 · 59.8 — no line
2026-10-101:00 PM Samford @ Chattanooga Chattanooga, TN FCS UTC to winUTC 79% 18–31 · 49.4 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Wofford @ Elon Elon, NC FCS ELON to winELON 71% 17–26 · 43.1 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Southern Illinois @ South Dakota Vermillion, SD FCS SDAK to winSDAK 74% 26–36 · 61.6 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Virginia Lynchburg @ Norfolk State Norfolk, VA NON-D1 FCS NORF to winNORF 99% 10–50 · 60.2 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Drake @ Valparaiso Valparaiso, IN FCS DRKE to winDRKE 57% 31–28 · 58.4 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Stetson @ St. Thomas-Minnesota Saint Paul, MN FCS STMN to winSTMN 92% 19–42 · 60.7 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM East Tennessee State @ The Citadel Charleston, SC FCS ETSU to winETSU 70% 36–28 · 64.5 — no line
2026-10-102:00 PM Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood Saint Charles, MO FCS SEMO to winSEMO 57% 29–26 · 55.2 — no line
2026-10-103:00 PM Idaho @ Weber State Ogden, UT FCS IDHO to winIDHO 54% 34–32 · 65.6 — no line
2026-10-103:00 PM Arkansas Baptist @ Alcorn State Lorman, MS NON-D1 FCS ALCN to winALCN 96% 21–50 · 70.7 — no line
2026-10-103:00 PM Western Carolina @ Mercer Macon, GA FCS MER to winMER 69% 27–35 · 62.1 — no line
2026-10-103:00 PM Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern Houston, TX FCS TXSO to winTXSO 73% 24–34 · 57.6 — no line
2026-10-103:00 PM Southern @ Prairie View A&M Prairie View, TX FCS PV to winPV 86% 20–38 · 58.2 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM ● Texas @ Oklahoma Dallas, TX · neutral FBS TEX to winTEX 66% 29–21 · 49.6 —
2026-10-103:30 PM ● Stanford @ Notre Dame Notre Dame, IN FBS ND to winND 98% 10–44 · 53.6 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM Tulsa @ Navy Annapolis, MD FBS NAVY to winNAVY 65% 22–30 · 51.1 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM Eastern Michigan @ Akron Akron, OH FBS AKR to winAKR 69% 20–32 · 51.8 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM Richmond @ Fordham Bronx, NY FCS RICH to winRICH 74% 31–20 · 50.9 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM Eastern Illinois @ Gardner-Webb Boiling Springs, NC FCS GWEB to winGWEB 79% 22–35 · 57.3 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM UT Martin @ Tennessee State Nashville, TN FCS UTM to winUTM 76% 29–18 · 46.6 — no line
2026-10-103:30 PM Furman @ Tennessee Tech Cookeville, TN FCS TNTC to winTNTC 75% 20–30 · 49.9 — no line
2026-10-104:00 PM Stony Brook @ Towson Towson, MD FCS TOW to winTOW 51% 29–30 · 59.2 — no line
2026-10-104:00 PM Utah Tech @ Portland State Portland, OR FCS PRST to winPRST 54% 28–30 · 58.4 — no line
2026-10-104:00 PM Florida A&M @ Alabama State Montgomery, AL FCS ALST to winALST 74% 22–32 · 54.6 — no line
2026-10-104:00 PM Incarnate Word @ Lamar Beaumont, TX FCS LAM to winLAM 51% 26–27 · 52.6 — no line
2026-10-105:00 PM North Dakota @ Northern Iowa Cedar Falls, IA FCS UND to winUND 81% 37–23 · 60.2 — no line
2026-10-105:00 PM Montana @ Northern Arizona Flagstaff, AZ FCS MONT to winMONT 69% 33–25 · 58.0 — no line
2026-10-105:00 PM Jackson State @ Grambling Grambling, LA FCS GRAM to winGRAM 56% 30–32 · 62.3 — no line
2026-10-105:00 PM Northeastern State @ West Florida Pensacola, FL NON-D1 WEST to winWEST 90% 19–40 · 58.2 — no line
2026-10-105:30 PM Davidson @ Presbyterian Clinton, SC FCS PRES to winPRES 84% 22–39 · 61.4 — no line
2026-10-106:00 PM San Diego State @ Oregon State Corvallis, OR FBS SDSU to winSDSU 63% 26–22 · 48.4 — no line
2026-10-106:00 PM South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern Charleston, SC FCS SCST to winSCST 81% 33–19 · 51.7 — no line
2026-10-106:00 PM Cal Poly @ Idaho State Pocatello, ID FCS IDST to winIDST 83% 22–37 · 59.0 — no line
2026-10-106:00 PM West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky Richmond, KY FCS EKU to winEKU 62% 22–27 · 49.1 — no line
2026-10-107:00 PM North Dakota State @ UNLV Las Vegas, NV FCS FBS UNLV to winUNLV 61% 24–29 · 52.5 — no line
2026-10-107:00 PM Tarleton State @ Austin Peay Clarksville, TN FCS TAR to winTAR 55% 30–29 · 59.1 — no line
2026-10-107:00 PM Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington Cheney, WA FCS EWU to winEWU 72% 22–32 · 54.2 — no line
2026-10-107:00 PM Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M Huntsville, AL FCS BCU to winBCU 57% 34–31 · 65.0 — no line
2026-10-107:30 PM Air Force @ Northern Illinois Dekalb, IL FBS AF to winAF 62% 26–22 · 48.5 — no line
2026-10-108:00 PM Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian Abilene, TX FCS ACU to winACU 62% 26–31 · 57.0 — no line
2026-10-108:00 PM SE Louisiana @ UT Rio Grande Valley Edinburg, TX FCS UT R to winUT R 83% 20–36 · 56.3 — no line
2026-10-1010:30 PM Boise State @ Fresno State Fresno, CA FBS BOIS to winBOIS 73% 31–20 · 50.4 — no line

Every row links to its full breakdown.