← Matchups

Ole Miss

SEC · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #18
Our numberMISS -3.6 no book has priced this game

Vanderbilt

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.8 · #28
Our side
MoneylineMISS to win ours 47%
Projected score 30–27 MISS – VAN
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Ole Miss lead 56–37–2 · 95 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Ole Miss Rebels #53 rush offense Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 171 ranks
Ole Miss Rebels #23 pass offense Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Run game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 194 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense Ole Miss Rebels #198 run defense
Pass game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 52 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense Ole Miss Rebels #58 pass defense
Ole Miss Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg Vanderbilt Commodores Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg
Pete Golding · 2-1 Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ole Miss Rebels
WR Deuce Alexander 13 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #24 WR
QB Trinidad Chambliss 561 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #13 QB
DB Jaylon Braxton 11 tkl · 3 PD #111 DB
RB Kewan Lacy 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 5 rec #50 RB
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB Nick Rinaldi 13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #7 LB
DB CJ Heard 14 tkl · 1 PD #21 DB
DL Miles Capers 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #23 DL
DL Issa Ouattara 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #139 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ole Miss RebelsSEC +24.9 +16.2 +8.7 #18
Vanderbilt CommodoresSEC +21.8 +11.2 +10.6 #28

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ole Miss offense vs Vanderbilt defense+5.6 pts
Vanderbilt offense vs Ole Miss defense+2.5 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.