Our side
MoneylineACU to win
ours 62%
Projected score
26–31
CARK – ACU
2026-10-10 · 8:00 PM
Wildcat Stadium (TX) · Abilene, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Central Arkansas lead
6–3
· 9 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
56 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Run game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
70 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
85 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Central Arkansas offense vs Abilene Christian defense-1.5 pts
Abilene Christian offense vs Central Arkansas defense+3.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 454 mi
Altitude · context only427 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.