BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2023 50 teams

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ALL FBS FCS Show all

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), opponent-adjusted, FBS and FCS on one scale. Point-in-time and calibrated (walk-forward ECE 0.037), but a model rating — not a betting edge.

#TeamDivConferencePowerOff (higher = better)Def (higher = better)
1 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +29.5 +13.2 +16.2
2 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +27.7 +14.7 +13.0
3 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +26.2 +8.6 +17.6
4 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +26.0 +14.9 +11.1
5 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +25.1 +12.5 +12.6
6 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +24.1 +11.2 +12.9
7 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +23.7 +11.2 +12.5
8 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +23.2 +13.2 +9.9
9 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +22.3 +13.0 +9.3
10 Florida State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +21.3 +10.8 +10.5
11 Missouri FBS Southeastern Conference +21.0 +9.5 +11.5
12 Washington FBS Big Ten Conference +21.0 +13.5 +7.4
13 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +20.9 +15.2 +5.6
14 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +19.8 +19.6 +0.3
15 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +18.9 +11.4 +7.5
16 Arizona FBS Big 12 Conference +17.7 +9.7 +8.0
17 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +17.4 +9.2 +8.1
18 Oregon State FBS Pac-12 Conference +16.6 +8.6 +8.0
19 Troy FBS Sun Belt Conference +16.3 +3.6 +12.7
20 Kansas FBS Big 12 Conference +15.5 +11.1 +4.3
21 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +15.1 +7.5 +7.6
22 Duke FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +15.1 +5.0 +10.1
23 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +15.1 +6.7 +8.4
24 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +14.7 +7.1 +7.6
25 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +14.6 +6.0 +8.6
26 Maryland FBS Big Ten Conference +14.1 +7.8 +6.3
27 Liberty FBS Conference USA +13.8 +11.1 +2.7
28 USC FBS Big Ten Conference +13.8 +17.6 -3.8
29 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +13.7 +8.1 +5.6
30 TCU FBS Big 12 Conference +13.4 +8.9 +4.5
31 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +13.4 +3.6 +9.8
32 Texas Tech FBS Big 12 Conference +13.2 +5.9 +7.2
33 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +12.8 +2.0 +10.7
34 West Virginia FBS Big 12 Conference +12.7 +7.5 +5.1
35 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +12.6 +7.2 +5.4
36 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +12.3 +0.5 +11.8
37 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +12.2 +3.2 +9.0
38 Miami FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +12.2 +6.8 +5.4
39 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +12.1 +6.6 +5.5
40 Memphis FBS American Conference +11.9 +12.4 -0.5
41 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +11.9 +8.0 +4.0
42 North Carolina FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +11.3 +9.8 +1.5
43 UCF FBS Big 12 Conference +11.1 +6.1 +5.0
44 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +10.4 +2.0 +8.4
45 UTSA FBS American Conference +10.2 +5.8 +4.3
46 Virginia Tech FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +10.0 +5.7 +4.3
47 Air Force FBS Mountain West Conference +10.0 +2.4 +7.6
48 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +9.8 +8.9 +0.9
49 Washington State FBS Pac-12 Conference +9.8 +7.3 +2.5
50 South Alabama FBS Sun Belt Conference +9.8 +4.7 +5.1

SRS — season 2023 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#TeamDivConferenceSRSOff (higher = better)Def (lower = better)
1 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +40.8 +25.4 -29.0
2 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +39.1 +29.5 -26.4
3 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +37.8 +26.9 -25.3
4 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +37.6 +18.7 -30.5
5 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +37.1 +24.4 -24.8
6 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +34.8 +24.1 -25.8
7 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +34.0 +25.3 -20.5
8 Washington FBS Big Ten Conference +33.9 +25.7 -19.9
9 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +33.8 +25.7 -21.8
10 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +33.7 +22.6 -24.5
11 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +32.6 +29.0 -18.5
12 Missouri FBS Southeastern Conference +32.2 +20.6 -22.5
13 Florida State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +31.3 +20.2 -20.7
14 Arizona FBS Big 12 Conference +30.4 +21.4 -20.3
15 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +29.7 +33.6 -10.8
16 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +28.7 +22.6 -18.3
17 Oregon State FBS Pac-12 Conference +28.2 +20.5 -19.3
18 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +26.9 +19.5 -19.9
19 Kansas FBS Big 12 Conference +26.6 +21.6 -15.3
20 USC FBS Big Ten Conference +25.9 +31.5 -7.6
21 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +25.6 +19.3 -18.6
22 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.0 +16.2 -19.8
23 Maryland FBS Big Ten Conference +24.7 +17.6 -15.2
24 Duke FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +24.7 +13.9 -19.7
25 Troy FBS Sun Belt Conference +24.4 +10.1 -19.6
26 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +23.9 +16.2 -17.9
27 Texas Tech FBS Big 12 Conference +23.8 +15.1 -17.2
28 TCU FBS Big 12 Conference +23.4 +18.7 -14.4
29 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +23.2 +10.7 -23.9
30 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +23.1 +13.8 -18.9
31 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +23.0 +10.9 -22.5
32 West Virginia FBS Big 12 Conference +22.5 +16.8 -14.6
33 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +22.4 +18.0 -13.7
34 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +22.3 +14.1 -15.3
35 Liberty FBS Conference USA +22.1 +18.5 -8.6
36 Miami FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +21.9 +16.7 -14.6
37 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +21.5 +12.4 -17.8
38 Washington State FBS Pac-12 Conference +21.5 +19.1 -12.2
39 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +21.4 +15.5 -13.3
40 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +21.4 +16.7 -13.4
41 UCF FBS Big 12 Conference +20.9 +16.5 -15.5
42 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +20.9 +17.8 -16.1
43 North Carolina FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +20.5 +19.2 -11.1
44 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +19.5 +9.8 -18.5
45 Virginia Tech FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.5 +15.6 -12.7
46 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +19.4 +11.6 -19.1
47 California FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.1 +18.5 -10.0
48 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +18.9 +2.8 -24.8
49 Memphis FBS American Conference +18.6 +20.3 -5.2
50 South Carolina FBS Southeastern Conference +18.3 +14.0 -15.0

Elo — live 2025 · week 16

#TeamDivElo
1 Indiana FBS 1883
2 Ohio State FBS 1866
3 Oregon FBS 1848
4 Georgia FBS 1843
5 Notre Dame FBS 1840
6 Texas Tech FBS 1801
7 Ole Miss FBS 1798
8 Miami FBS 1780
9 James Madison FBS 1779
10 Texas FBS 1760
11 Utah FBS 1752
12 Alabama FBS 1738
13 BYU FBS 1733
14 SMU FBS 1729
15 Texas A&M FBS 1728
16 Vanderbilt FBS 1717
17 Iowa FBS 1713
18 Oklahoma FBS 1708
19 Tulane FBS 1697
20 USC FBS 1695
21 Penn State FBS 1694
22 Louisville FBS 1681
23 Washington FBS 1679
24 Michigan FBS 1677
25 Navy FBS 1673

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 132 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.98 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

TeamSP+ rankOur rank (same FBS field)Gap
Wisconsin #29 #52 +23 (we're lower)
Georgia Southern #82 #103 +21 (we're lower)
Bowling Green #94 #75 -19 (we're higher)
North Texas #86 #104 +18 (we're lower)
Kentucky #22 #39 +17 (we're lower)
Eastern Michigan #109 #125 +16 (we're lower)
Wake Forest #96 #81 -15 (we're higher)
Florida #41 #55 +14 (we're lower)

SP+ top 25

#TeamSP+OffDef (lower = better)Our rank (same FBS field)
1 Michigan +31.3 36.6 7.2 #1
2 Georgia +31.2 41.5 12.2 #2
3 Oregon +26.2 45.0 18.2 #4
4 Ohio State +25.2 31.5 7.8 #3
5 Penn State +23.5 32.7 10.5 #6
6 Texas +23.2 39.3 17.7 #5
7 Alabama +23.1 36.8 15.6 #7
8 Notre Dame +20.1 36.3 16.7 #8
9 Florida State +19.4 34.1 16.5 #10
10 Missouri +19.3 36.5 18.0 #11
11 LSU +19.1 44.6 25.0 #14
12 Ole Miss +18.4 36.3 19.2 #15
13 Washington +16.4 40.3 24.7 #12
14 Kansas State +16.2 38.9 21.8 #9
14 Tennessee +16.2 34.9 19.2 #17
16 Texas A&M +15.6 34.5 18.8 #21
17 Oklahoma +15.0 38.5 22.6 #13
18 Arizona +14.1 37.3 23.1 #16
19 Oregon State +12.6 33.2 22.3 #18
20 James Madison +11.8 34.6 23.7 #24
21 Maryland +11.0 28.3 17.6 #26
22 Kentucky +10.5 31.6 22.2 #39
22 Clemson +10.5 29.3 19.0 #23
24 SMU +10.1 34.1 23.0 #29
25 Kansas +9.9 35.6 26.1 #20