● Top projected winners
record starts at kickoff
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
USC
-17.7 · 83%
over San José State
North Dakota State
-14.9 · 79%
over Jacksonville State
Florida State
-12.8 · 75%
over New Mexico State
TCU
-8.8 · 68%
over North Carolina
Virginia
-4.6 · 60%
over NC State
Sacramento State
-3.3 · 57%
over Eastern Michigan
UNLV
-0.9 · 52%
over Memphis
Stanford
-0.3 · 51%
over Hawai'i
NC State ACC
Power +7.8 · #52
Virginia -4.6
26–31
proj total 57.7 · 60%
2026-08-29 · 3:30 PM
Virginia ACC
Power +9.9 · #31
Our number
Virginia -4.6 · 57.7
The market
Virginia -5.5 · 54.5
Win prob · ours vs book
60% vs 63%
NC State offense vs. Virginia defense-0.8 pts
Virginia offense vs. NC State defense+1.4 pts
North Carolina ACC
Power +1.1 · #149
TCU -8.8
22–30
proj total 52.0 · 68%
2026-08-29 · 12:00 PM · neutral
TCU B12
Power +9.9 · #32
Our number
TCU -8.8 · 52.0
The market
TCU -6.5 · 49.5
Win prob · ours vs book
68% vs 69%
North Carolina offense vs. TCU defense-5.7 pts
TCU offense vs. North Carolina defense+3.1 pts
Away team travels 3,605 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
San José State MWC
Power -2.7 · #235
USC -17.7
23–40
proj total 63.0 · 83%
2026-08-29 · 3:00 PM
USC B1G
Power +12.6 · #15
Our number
USC -17.7 · 63.0
The market
USC -35.5 · 57.5
Win prob · ours vs book
83% vs —
San José State offense vs. USC defense-4.6 pts
USC offense vs. San José State defense+10.7 pts
Hawai'i MWC
Power +3.3 · #115
Stanford -0.3
27–27
proj total 54.1 · 51%
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM
Stanford ACC
Power +1.2 · #146
Our number
Stanford -0.3 · 54.1
The market
Stanford -3.5 · 50.5
Win prob · ours vs book
51% vs 61%
Hawai'i offense vs. Stanford defense-0.4 pts
Stanford offense vs. Hawai'i defense-2.5 pts
Away team travels 2,399 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
New Mexico State CUSA
Power -3.1 · #251
Florida State -12.8
21–34
proj total 55.0 · 75%
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM
Florida State ACC
Power +7.3 · #57
Our number
Florida State -12.8 · 55.0
The market
Florida State -30.5 · 53.5
Win prob · ours vs book
75% vs 96%
New Mexico State offense vs. Florida State defense-6.2 pts
Florida State offense vs. New Mexico State defense+4.2 pts
Away team travels 1,328 mi1,189 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Memphis AAC
Power +7.3 · #56
UNLV -0.9
31–32
proj total 63.6 · 52%
2026-08-29 · 10:00 PM
UNLV MWC
Power +5.8 · #72
Our number
UNLV -0.9 · 63.6
The market
UNLV -3.5 · 59.5
Win prob · ours vs book
52% vs 63%
Venue Indoors — no weather factor
Memphis offense vs. UNLV defense+4.1 pts
UNLV offense vs. Memphis defense+2.5 pts
Away team travels 1,414 mi576 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Jacksonville State CUSA
Power +1.6 · #138
North Dakota State -14.9
22–37
proj total 58.2 · 79%
2026-08-29 · 5:30 PM
North Dakota State
Power +14.1 · #9
Our number
North Dakota State -14.9 · 58.2
The market
North Dakota State -8.5 · 48.5
Win prob · ours vs book
79% vs 73%
Venue Indoors — no weather factor
Jacksonville State offense vs. North Dakota State defense-5.7 pts
North Dakota State offense vs. Jacksonville State defense+6.9 pts
Away team travels 1,072 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Sacramento State
Power +3.3 · #110
Sacramento State -3.3
33–30
proj total 63.4 · 57%
2026-08-29 · 6:30 PM
Eastern Michigan MAC
Power -2.4 · #227
Our number
Sacramento State -3.3 · 63.4
The market
Eastern Michigan -8.0 · 52.5
Win prob · ours vs book
43% vs 73%
Sacramento State offense vs. Eastern Michigan defense+6.1 pts
Eastern Michigan offense vs. Sacramento State defense+0.4 pts
Away team travels 1,987 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Southern Utah
Power +2.9 · #119
Montana -7.2
31–38
proj total 68.4 · 65%
2026-08-29 · 9:00 PM
Montana
Power +7.7 · #53
Southern Utah offense vs. Montana defense+3.3 pts
Montana offense vs. Southern Utah defense+8.1 pts
Away team travels 636 mi784 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Prairie View A&M
Power -0.7 · #187
Tarleton State -12.4
24–36
proj total 59.4 · 75%
2026-08-29 · 9:00 PM
Tarleton State
Power +9.3 · #36
Prairie View A&M offense vs. Tarleton State defense-3.8 pts
Tarleton State offense vs. Prairie View A&M defense+6.2 pts
320 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — see all 76 games.