BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2015 50 teams

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ALL FBS FCS Show all

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), opponent-adjusted, FBS and FCS on one scale. Point-in-time and calibrated (walk-forward ECE 0.037), but a model rating — not a betting edge.

#TeamDivConferencePowerOff (higher = better)Def (higher = better)
1 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +24.2 +10.8 +13.4
2 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +20.5 +7.9 +12.6
3 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +20.0 +13.0 +7.0
4 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +18.9 +11.9 +7.0
5 Stanford FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +17.9 +10.8 +7.1
6 North Carolina FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +16.7 +13.5 +3.1
7 Florida State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +16.3 +6.4 +9.9
8 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +16.3 +14.9 +1.3
9 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +16.2 +9.8 +6.4
10 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +16.1 +11.2 +5.0
11 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +15.8 +5.2 +10.6
12 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +15.1 +10.4 +4.7
13 Mississippi State FBS Southeastern Conference +15.0 +8.3 +6.7
14 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +14.6 +9.6 +4.9
15 Navy FBS American Conference +14.4 +8.0 +6.4
16 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +14.3 +6.2 +8.0
17 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +14.1 +10.4 +3.7
18 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +13.8 +4.2 +9.6
19 TCU FBS Big 12 Conference +13.7 +10.3 +3.5
20 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +13.5 +13.1 +0.4
21 Jacksonville State FBS Conference USA +13.0 +8.1 +4.9
22 Toledo FBS Mid-American Conference +12.6 +5.6 +7.0
23 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +12.2 +4.8 +7.3
24 USC FBS Big Ten Conference +11.9 +6.1 +5.7
25 Washington FBS Big Ten Conference +11.6 +1.3 +10.3
26 Georgia Southern FBS Sun Belt Conference +11.6 +6.7 +4.9
27 California FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +11.4 +10.7 +0.7
28 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +11.4 +16.3 -4.9
29 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +11.3 +3.3 +8.0
30 Bowling Green FBS Mid-American Conference +11.3 +12.7 -1.4
31 San Diego State FBS Mountain West Conference +11.2 +2.0 +9.2
32 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +11.1 -0.2 +11.3
33 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +10.8 +2.0 +8.8
34 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +10.7 +3.4 +7.3
35 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +10.4 +6.7 +3.6
36 West Virginia FBS Big 12 Conference +10.1 +4.2 +5.9
37 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +9.9 +10.1 -0.3
38 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +9.8 +4.1 +5.7
39 Memphis FBS American Conference +9.7 +8.3 +1.4
40 Temple FBS American Conference +9.6 +2.3 +7.3
41 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +9.6 +6.8 +2.8
42 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +9.5 +4.7 +4.8
43 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +9.5 +0.4 +9.1
44 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +9.5 +4.4 +5.0
45 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +9.4 +6.3 +3.1
46 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +9.3 +3.4 +5.9
47 South Florida FBS American Conference +9.2 +4.7 +4.5
48 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +9.1 +3.9 +5.2
49 Sam Houston FBS Conference USA +8.6 +10.2 -1.6
50 Washington State FBS Pac-12 Conference +8.4 +4.5 +4.0

SRS — season 2015 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#TeamDivConferenceSRSOff (higher = better)Def (lower = better)
1 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +41.4 +25.5 -28.9
2 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +37.0 +21.5 -27.1
3 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +36.0 +28.3 -21.7
4 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +35.7 +28.5 -23.6
5 Stanford FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +34.5 +25.0 -20.9
6 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +32.7 +18.9 -25.0
7 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +32.0 +27.5 -20.3
8 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +31.9 +24.3 -20.1
9 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +31.8 +25.2 -18.1
10 North Carolina FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +31.5 +27.5 -15.7
11 Florida State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +31.4 +19.9 -23.4
12 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +31.0 +19.9 -22.6
13 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +30.8 +29.5 -14.7
14 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +30.1 +24.1 -16.4
15 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +30.0 +16.5 -23.4
16 Mississippi State FBS Southeastern Conference +29.9 +21.4 -19.5
17 TCU FBS Big 12 Conference +29.0 +24.0 -16.8
18 USC FBS Big Ten Conference +27.7 +20.5 -20.8
19 Navy FBS American Conference +27.6 +19.2 -17.8
20 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +27.3 +22.0 -16.6
21 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +27.3 +17.4 -20.3
22 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +26.4 +30.0 -5.2
23 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +26.3 +12.4 -26.0
24 Toledo FBS Mid-American Conference +26.2 +16.3 -18.2
25 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +26.1 +16.1 -22.0
26 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +26.0 +16.0 -20.9
27 Washington FBS Big Ten Conference +25.8 +14.6 -25.5
28 California FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.5 +24.2 -12.5
29 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +25.3 +14.0 -21.7
30 West Virginia FBS Big 12 Conference +24.8 +17.6 -20.1
31 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +24.8 +13.0 -23.2
32 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +24.8 +24.4 -9.8
33 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +24.5 +24.1 -12.1
34 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +24.0 +15.7 -19.0
35 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +23.9 +17.8 -18.3
36 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +23.9 +17.2 -18.2
37 Bowling Green FBS Mid-American Conference +23.8 +25.1 -9.6
38 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +23.3 +15.6 -17.3
39 Memphis FBS American Conference +22.7 +20.9 -13.6
40 Nebraska FBS Big Ten Conference +22.7 +20.0 -12.9
41 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +22.4 +19.2 -14.6
42 Georgia Southern FBS Sun Belt Conference +22.3 +15.5 -13.7
43 Temple FBS American Conference +22.2 +12.3 -18.1
44 Virginia Tech FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +21.9 +17.2 -15.0
45 Washington State FBS Pac-12 Conference +21.7 +15.3 -15.3
46 Miami FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +21.6 +13.3 -15.2
47 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +21.5 +18.6 -15.1
48 Northwestern FBS Big Ten Conference +21.4 +7.3 -22.9
49 South Florida FBS American Conference +21.2 +15.7 -15.8
50 Arizona State FBS Big 12 Conference +20.8 +21.2 -10.4

Elo — live 2025 · week 16

#TeamDivElo
1 Indiana FBS 1883
2 Ohio State FBS 1866
3 Oregon FBS 1848
4 Georgia FBS 1843
5 Notre Dame FBS 1840
6 Texas Tech FBS 1801
7 Ole Miss FBS 1798
8 Miami FBS 1780
9 James Madison FBS 1779
10 Texas FBS 1760
11 Utah FBS 1752
12 Alabama FBS 1738
13 BYU FBS 1733
14 SMU FBS 1729
15 Texas A&M FBS 1728
16 Vanderbilt FBS 1717
17 Iowa FBS 1713
18 Oklahoma FBS 1708
19 Tulane FBS 1697
20 USC FBS 1695
21 Penn State FBS 1694
22 Louisville FBS 1681
23 Washington FBS 1679
24 Michigan FBS 1677
25 Navy FBS 1673

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 126 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.95 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

TeamSP+ rankOur rank (same FBS field)Gap
Houston #53 #14 -39 (we're higher)
Minnesota #46 #76 +30 (we're lower)
Toledo #50 #21 -29 (we're higher)
Penn State #32 #59 +27 (we're lower)
Georgia Southern #52 #25 -27 (we're higher)
UCLA #16 #41 +25 (we're lower)
Army #126 #101 -25 (we're higher)
Boston College #57 #80 +23 (we're lower)

SP+ top 25

#TeamSP+OffDef (lower = better)Our rank (same FBS field)
1 Ohio State +29.5 41.3 13.5 #2
2 Alabama +29.0 37.7 9.1 #1
3 Ole Miss +27.0 43.1 17.4 #10
4 Clemson +24.0 41.9 17.2 #3
5 Florida State +23.2 38.0 15.0 #7
6 Stanford +22.8 44.5 24.5 #5
7 Oklahoma +22.7 41.7 19.3 #4
8 Notre Dame +22.4 44.1 21.2 #12
9 North Carolina +20.0 43.3 25.3 #6
10 LSU +19.7 41.3 21.8 #16
10 Michigan +19.7 35.2 16.2 #11
12 Baylor +19.5 45.1 24.1 #8
12 Tennessee +19.5 35.7 17.8 #9
14 Arkansas +19.2 46.6 28.0 #17
15 TCU +19.0 40.8 21.7 #19
16 UCLA +18.6 42.4 22.6 #41
17 USC +16.8 38.6 23.3 #23
17 Georgia +16.8 28.6 10.7 #32
19 Oregon +15.9 46.7 30.4 #27
20 Michigan State +15.6 35.7 20.6 #18
21 Wisconsin +15.1 27.0 12.4 #31
21 Mississippi State +15.1 40.2 23.8 #13
23 Auburn +14.6 36.1 23.1 #45
24 Texas A&M +14.1 31.9 18.8 #33
25 Florida +13.8 26.7 15.8 #42