BallKnowMe

Where the numbers come from

Every wager on the board shows two probabilities side by side:

• M% — our model's probability, built from things like matchup history, recent form, ballpark, weather, and confirmed lineups.
• B% — the sportsbook's own implied probability with the vig (the book's built-in fee) mathematically removed. This is what the market itself thinks, stated honestly.

Showing both keeps us honest: you can always see where our number agrees with the market and where it doesn't. When a tile is just restating the market (a heavy favorite, say), we label it that way — BOOK FAV — instead of dressing it up as model insight.

What makes a ★ Best Play

A market only gets featured after it passes a calibration test on past results: when the model said 65%, did those picks actually hit about 65% of the time, over weeks of walk-forward testing? Right now one market passes: most- likely-to-hit, where our stated % matches the real hit rate. Everything else is context — shown honestly with its real record, but never badged as proven. That includes the game favorite: it's just the market's own price with the vig removed, so it carries no edge to claim — a real game pick has to find a mispriced side (favorite or underdog) and prove it beats the closing line first.

A probability is a rate, not a promise: a 65% pick still loses one time in three. The claim we stand behind is that our percentages mean what they say — which is why the Record page shows the claimed average next to the actual hit rate, every day.

When a pick locks

Each game's picks freeze the moment that game's starting lineup is made official — or 15 minutes before first pitch, whichever comes first. Until then the board is live and clearly provisional; after that, the pick cannot change, reorder, or quietly disappear. What you saw at lock is exactly what gets graded.

A batter pick only locks if that batter is actually in the confirmed lineup. If a game is postponed or a player is scratched after lock, the pick is a void — no action, shown as a grey V, never silently deleted.

How grading works

Results are graded automatically from official league data feeds — never by hand, never edited after the fact. Wins ✓ and losses ✗ both stay on the page forever; pushes and voids are marked separately so a "no action" never inflates the win rate. The public record begins July 3, 2026 — the day pick-locking went live. Nothing from before that date is counted, because it wasn't locked in advance and a record you could rewrite isn't a record.

What we deliberately don't claim

• We don't claim you'll profit. Sportsbook prices carry a fee, and the market is very good. Even accurate probabilities roughly break even at book prices.
• We don't sell "locks," "guarantees," or units systems. There's no tout language here because the record page makes it unnecessary — look it up yourself.
• We don't hide losing streaks, reshuffle history, or start the count over when a category runs cold.

The pitch is simple: honest numbers, locked in public, graded in public. If that ever stops being true, the record page is where you'd catch us.

Play responsibly

BallKnowMe is for entertainment. It is not financial or betting advice. You must be 21 or older to wager where sports betting is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The fine print

The full legal terms behind everything above:

• Disclaimer — entertainment only, no guarantees, no affiliation with any league or sportsbook.
• Terms of Service — the rules for using the site, including acceptable use and subscription terms.
• Privacy Policy — what we log when you visit, and how it's used.