★ Top winner the single biggest favorite · log5 win% · a proven read, not an edge58% · 42/73 last 14d
★ Top hits most likely to get a hit · P(1+ hit) · backtest-calibrated66% · 54/82 last 14d
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Luis Arraez
1+ hit
HIT 78%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Otto Lopez
1+ hit · −256
HIT 74%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Jung Hoo Lee
1+ hit
HIT 73%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Freddie Freeman
1+ hit · −227
HIT 73%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Jonathan Aranda
1+ hit · −238
HIT 72%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Shohei Ohtani
1+ hit · −265
HIT 72%
★ Top H+R+RBI Hits+Runs+RBIs · best-calibrated model (HRR V2, ECE 0.007)52% · 53/102 last 17d
★ Top strikeout picks per-PA Poisson · backtest-calibrated (ECE 0.05)51% · 41/80 last 14d
◇ Top HR shots proving · not counted HR V7 (park×wind×Statcast) — validating live before it earns a Best Playclaimed 23% · hit 15% (22/144)
TOP HR SHOT
Shohei Ohtani
HR · vs Bryan Woo
31%
TOP HR SHOT
Nick Kurtz
HR · vs Sonny Gray
31%
TOP HR SHOT
Matt Olson
HR · vs Jake Irvin
25%
TOP HR SHOT
Esmerlyn Valdez
HR · vs Rhett Lowder
25%
TOP HR SHOT
James Wood
HR · vs Grant Holmes
24%
TOP HR SHOT
Munetaka Murakami
HR · vs Ryan Weathers
19%
TOP HR SHOT
Teoscar Hernández
HR · vs Bryan Woo
19%
TOP HR SHOT
Marcell Ozuna
HR · vs Rhett Lowder
19%
Rangers
5-5
12:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
Rays
7-3
BOOK 59%MODEL 63%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
RangersRays
1st inn · no leanM 53% NRFIB 53% NRFI
F5U 4.5
Starting pitchers
CW
Cole Winn RHP
5–3 · 0 GS
ERA
7.32
K/G
0.9
H/G
1.0
WHIP
1.63
FC 31.0%FF 30.9%SL 22.2%FS 14.2%SI 1.8%
vs Rays lineup · 4 PA career
.000
AVG
.250
OBP
.000
SLG
25.0
K%
25.0
BB%
87.7
EV
0.0
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts
—
ERA
—
WHIP
—
IP
—
K
—
BB
—
HR
—
K/9
—
BB/9
—
K/BB
SM
Shane McClanahan ★ K U5.5 LHP
9–6 · 19 GS
ERA
3.07
K/G
4.6
H/G
4.0
WHIP
1.16
L5 ERA
2.24
K o5.5
O
/U
(U 66%)
Outs o15.5
O
/U
FF 37.4%CH 29.2%SL 19.6%CU 13.8%
vs Rangers lineup · 19 PA career
.222
AVG
.263
OBP
.722
SLG
26.3
K%
5.3
BB%
89.4
EV
46.2
Hard%
3
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 24
2.24
ERA
0.93
WHIP
28.1
IP
19
K
6
BB
4
HR
6.1
K/9
1.9
BB/9
3.17
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Rangers
●●
Ezequiel Duran◎
vs Hand .272Hot .352
●●
Elias Díaz◎
vs Team .406vs Hand .270
Rays
●●
Nick Fortes◎
vs Hand .283Hot .461
●●
Yandy Díaz◎
vs Team .305vs Hand .306
●●
Chandler Simpson◎
vs Hand .298Hot .333
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Rangers1+ HitH+R+RBI
ED
Ezequiel Duran RHB◎
Rec 0.353Szn 0.274vs LHP 0.273
8/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 63%
B 64%
M 46%
B 46%
Rays1+ HitH+R+RBI
NF
Nick Fortes RHB◎
Rec 0.500Szn 0.277vs RHP 0.283
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 63%
—
—
CS
Chandler Simpson LHB◎
Rec 0.333Szn 0.288vs RHP 0.298
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 30%
B 34%
M 44%
B 55%
JA
Jonathan Aranda ★ 1+ Hit LHB◎
Rec 0.312Szn 0.284vs RHP 0.289
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 72%
B 70%
M 52%
B 56%
Lineups & injury report
Rangers · today's lineup
Alejandro Osuna · Brandon Nimmo · Cam Cauley · Elias Díaz · Ezequiel Duran · Jake Burger · Justin Foscue · Nicky Lopez · Wyatt Langford
Injured list
D10 Josh Jung Left calf strain
D10 Kyle Higashioka
D10 Corey Seager Lower back inflammation
D60 Danny Jansen Right forearm strain
Rays · today's lineup
Ben Williamson · Chandler Simpson · Jonathan Aranda · Jonny Deluca · Junior Caminero · Nick Fortes · Ryan Vilade · Taylor Walls · Yandy Díaz
Injured list
D10 Jake Fraley Hernia
Royals
6-4
01:40 PM ET
Target Field
Twins
5-5
BOOK 56%MODEL 59%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
RoyalsTwins
1st inn · no leanM 51% NRFIB 45% NRFI
F5O 5.5
Starting pitchers
NC
Noah Cameron ★ K O4.5 LHP
5–8 · 19 GS
ERA
5.02
K/G
5.3
H/G
6.1
WHIP
1.45
L5 ERA
6.29
K o4.5
O
/U
(O 58%)
Outs o16.5
O
/U
FF 27.8%FC 21.1%CH 20.8%CU 17.1%SL 9.8%
vs Twins lineup · 70 PA career
.194
AVG
.229
OBP
.239
SLG
25.7
K%
2.9
BB%
89.2
EV
38.8
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 24
6.29
ERA
1.69
WHIP
27.2
IP
25
K
15
BB
6
HR
8.3
K/9
5.0
BB/9
1.67
K/BB
BO
Bailey Ober ★ K U3.5 RHP
7–3 · 15 GS
ERA
4.64
K/G
4.0
H/G
5.3
WHIP
1.27
L5 ERA
6.95
K o3.5
O
/U
(U 58%)
Outs o15.5
O
/U
CH 35.5%FF 31.8%SL 16.3%ST 11.7%SI 2.9%
vs Royals lineup · 76 PA career
.205
AVG
.237
OBP
.397
SLG
23.7
K%
1.3
BB%
90.8
EV
49.1
Hard%
3
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 22
6.95
ERA
1.72
WHIP
23.3
IP
20
K
5
BB
6
HR
7.7
K/9
1.9
BB/9
4.0
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Royals
●●●
Josh Rojas◎
vs P .400vs Hand .318Hot .357
●●
Nick Loftin◎
vs P .333Hot .375
Twins
No aligned batters in the lineup
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Royals1+ HitH+R+RBI
NL
Nick Loftin RHB◎
Rec 0.375Szn 0.256vs RHP 0.220
9/10 1+
vs even SP
M 61%
B 66%
M 46%
B 50%
SP
Salvador Perez RHB◎
Rec 0.300Szn 0.214vs RHP 0.191
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 62%
B 70%
M 48%
B 55%
Twins1+ HitH+R+RBI
RK
Ryan Kreidler RHB◎
Rec 0.353Szn 0.240vs LHP 0.194
5/10 1+
vs SOFT SP
M 57%
B 62%
M 39%
B 48%
KC
Kody Clemens LHB◎
Rec 0.333Szn 0.241vs LHP 0.218
7/10 1+
vs SOFT SP
M 67%
VC
Victor Caratini SHB◎
Rec 0.267Szn 0.236vs LHP 0.207
6/10 1+
vs SOFT SP
M 62%
B 68%
M 43%
B 54%
Lineups & injury report
Royals · today's lineup
Carter Jensen · Isaac Collins · Jac Caglianone · Josh Rojas · Lane Thomas · Michael Massey · Nick Loftin · Salvador Perez · Tyler Tolbert
Injured list
D10 Bobby Witt Jr. Low back tightness
D10 Vinnie Pasquantino Right wrist soreness
D10 Maikel Garcia Left hand muscle strain
D10 Kyle Isbel Left plantar fasciitis
D60 Jonathan India Left shoulder subluxation
Twins · today's lineup
Alan Roden · Brooks Lee · Josh Bell · Kody Clemens · Luke Keaschall · Royce Lewis · Ryan Kreidler · Trevor Larnach · Victor Caratini
Injured list
D10 Byron Buxton Right hip impingement
Yankees
6-4
02:10 PM ET
Rate Field
White Sox
5-5
BOOK 51%MODEL 52%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
YankeesWhite Sox
1st inn · no leanM 52% YRFIB 53% NRFI
F5U 4.5
Starting pitchers
RW
Ryan Weathers ★ K U6.5 LHP
4–7 · 20 GS
ERA
4.42
K/G
6.1
H/G
5.3
WHIP
1.32
L5 ERA
4.41
K o6.5
O
/U
(U 52%)
Outs o16.5
O
/U
(O 82%)
FF 25.6%CH 24.5%ST 20.8%SI 17.9%SL 11.1%
vs White Sox lineup · 27 PA career
.160
AVG
.222
OBP
.280
SLG
29.6
K%
7.4
BB%
85.5
EV
35.3
Hard%
1
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
4.41
ERA
1.55
WHIP
24.5
IP
30
K
7
BB
1
HR
11.0
K/9
2.6
BB/9
4.29
K/BB
SB
Sean Burke ★ K U7.5 RHP
7–5 · 17 GS
ERA
3.28
K/G
7.6
H/G
5.7
WHIP
1.14
L5 ERA
1.78
K o7.5
O
/U
(U 63%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
FF 37.4%KC 21.1%SL 19.7%SI 14.9%FC 4.7%
vs Yankees lineup · 23 PA career
.200
AVG
.217
OBP
.350
SLG
43.5
K%
4.3
BB%
87.4
EV
40.0
Hard%
1
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
1.78
ERA
0.86
WHIP
30.3
IP
43
K
5
BB
2
HR
12.8
K/9
1.5
BB/9
8.6
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Yankees
●●
Paul Goldschmidt◎
vs P .333Hot .300
●●
Ben Rice◎
vs P .333vs Hand .273
White Sox
●●
Chase Meidroth◎
vs P .333vs Hand .306
●●
Colson Montgomery◎
vs Team .318vs Hand .271
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Yankees1+ HitH+R+RBI
PG
Paul Goldschmidt RHB◎
Rec 0.300Szn 0.258vs RHP 0.207
7/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 63%
B 69%
M 46%
B 51%
White Sox1+ HitH+R+RBI
MM
Munetaka Murakami LHB◎
Rec 0.350Szn 0.240vs LHP 0.192
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 64%
B 61%
M 52%
B 49%
CM
Colson Montgomery LHB◎
Rec 0.267Szn 0.220vs LHP 0.271
4/10 1+
vs even SP
M 63%
B 63%
M 46%
B 49%
BM
Braden Montgomery SHB◎
Rec 0.250Szn 0.250vs LHP 0.205
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 66%
B 64%
M 45%
B 46%
Lineups & injury report
Yankees · today's lineup
Austin Wells · Ben Rice · Jasson Domínguez · Jazz Chisholm · José Caballero · Paul Goldschmidt · Ryan Mcmahon · Spencer Jones · Trent Grisham
Injured list
D10 Cody Bellinger Left hamstring strain
D60 Aaron Judge Right rib stress fracture
D10 Giancarlo Stanton Right calf strain
White Sox · today's lineup
Andrew Benintendi · Braden Montgomery · Chase Meidroth · Colson Montgomery · Drew Romo · Miguel Vargas · Munetaka Murakami · Sam Antonacci · Tristan Peters
Injured list
D10 Kyle Teel Left ankle sprain
D60 Austin Hays Left calf strain
Cubs
6-4
MODEL 52%
02:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
Cardinals
3-7
BOOK 52%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
CubsCardinals
1st inn · no leanM 51% YRFIB 49% NRFI
F5U 4.5
Starting pitchers
JA
Javier Assad ★ K O2.5 RHP
6–1 · 8 GS
ERA
4.09
K/G
5.2
H/G
7.1
WHIP
1.19
L5 ERA
2.81
K o2.5
O
/U
(O 64%)
Outs o14.5
O
/U
SI 41.8%FF 18.7%FC 15.4%ST 7.6%CH 7.1%
vs Cardinals lineup · 59 PA career
.222
AVG
.288
OBP
.370
SLG
20.3
K%
8.5
BB%
87.8
EV
42.9
Hard%
1
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
2.81
ERA
1.07
WHIP
22.4
IP
15
K
4
BB
6
HR
6.0
K/9
1.6
BB/9
3.75
K/BB
AP
Andre Pallante RHP
11–6 · 20 GS
ERA
3.93
K/G
4.2
H/G
5.2
WHIP
1.25
L5 ERA
4.42
K o4.5
O
/U
(U 58%)
Outs o16.5
O
/U
FF 31.1%SL 30.1%SI 18.4%KC 17.9%FS 2.5%
vs Cubs lineup · 115 PA career
.330
AVG
.400
OBP
.524
SLG
13.0
K%
9.6
BB%
87.9
EV
34.9
Hard%
4
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
4.42
ERA
1.33
WHIP
28.5
IP
19
K
7
BB
1
HR
6.0
K/9
2.2
BB/9
2.71
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Cubs
●●
Seiya Suzuki◎
vs P .500Hot .304
●●
Alex Bregman◎
vs Team .370Hot .363
●●
Pete Crow-Armstrong◎
vs Team .301vs Hand .281
Cardinals
●●
Masyn Winn◎
vs P .714Hot .350
●●
Alec Burleson◎
vs Hand .321Hot .368
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Cubs1+ HitH+R+RBI
PR
Pedro Ramirez SHB◎
Rec 0.467Szn 0.315vs RHP 0.299
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 62%
B 67%
M 39%
B 50%
AB
Alex Bregman RHB◎
Rec 0.421Szn 0.243vs RHP 0.231
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 67%
B 67%
M 47%
B 51%
MA
Miguel Amaya SHB◎
Rec 0.364Szn 0.242vs RHP 0.221
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 54%
—
—
Cardinals1+ HitH+R+RBI
AB
Alec Burleson LHB◎
Rec 0.368Szn 0.285vs RHP 0.321
5/10 1+
vs even SP
M 71%
B 73%
M 49%
B 58%
IH
Iván Herrera RHB◎
Rec 0.364Szn 0.246vs RHP 0.234
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 65%
B 69%
M 45%
B 54%
MW
Masyn Winn RHB◎
Rec 0.350Szn 0.241vs RHP 0.221
5/10 1+
vs even SP
M 63%
B 67%
M 41%
B 50%
Lineups & injury report
Cubs · today's lineup
Alex Bregman · Dansby Swanson · Ian Happ · Michael Busch · Michael Conforto · Miguel Amaya · Pedro Ramírez · Pete Crow-Armstrong · Seiya Suzuki
Injured list
D10 Matt Shaw left-hand sprain
Cardinals · today's lineup
Alec Burleson · Blaze Jordan · Iván Herrera · Jj Wetherholt · Jordan Walker · José Fermín · Masyn Winn · Nathan Church · Pedro Pagés
Marlins
3-7
MODEL 53%
07:10 PM ET
Citi Field
Mets
5-5
BOOK 54%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
MarlinsMets
1st inn · no leanM 52% YRFIB 56% NRFI
F5O 3.5
Starting pitchers
EP
Eury Pérez ★ K O5.5 RHP
5–8 · 18 GS
ERA
3.60
K/G
5.9
H/G
4.0
WHIP
1.13
L5 ERA
1.74
K o5.5
O
/U
(O 63%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
FF 45.9%SL 15.7%ST 13.3%SI 9.9%CH 9.0%
vs Mets lineup · 36 PA career
.121
AVG
.194
OBP
.182
SLG
30.6
K%
8.3
BB%
87.4
EV
40.9
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
1.74
ERA
0.90
WHIP
31.1
IP
33
K
10
BB
1
HR
9.5
K/9
2.9
BB/9
3.3
K/BB
NM
Nolan McLean ★ K O6.5 RHP
7–7 · 21 GS
ERA
3.36
K/G
6.8
H/G
4.3
WHIP
1.13
L5 ERA
1.20
K o6.5
O
/U
(O 56%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
(O 67%)
SI 32.9%FF 20.6%ST 15.6%CU 13.9%FC 9.9%
vs Marlins lineup · 19 PA career
.000
AVG
.316
OBP
.000
SLG
10.5
K%
26.3
BB%
80.3
EV
9.1
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
1.20
ERA
1.10
WHIP
30.0
IP
36
K
9
BB
1
HR
10.8
K/9
2.7
BB/9
4.0
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Marlins
●●
Esteury Ruiz◎
vs Team .333Hot .400
●●
Otto Lopez◎
vs Hand .297Hot .300
Mets
●●●
Bo Bichette◎
vs P .375vs Team .333Hot .318
●●
Marcus Semien◎
vs Team .342Hot .285
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Marlins1+ HitH+R+RBI
ER
Esteury Ruiz RHB◎
Rec 0.400Szn 0.254vs RHP 0.237
5/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 47%
—
—
OL
Otto Lopez ★ 1+ Hit RHB◎
Rec 0.300Szn 0.326vs RHP 0.298
7/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 74%
B 72%
M 54%
B 54%
KS
Kyle Stowers LHB◎
Rec 0.294Szn 0.232vs RHP 0.245
7/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 59%
B 61%
M 47%
B 46%
Mets1+ HitH+R+RBI
JY
Jared Young LHB◎
Rec 0.333Szn 0.253vs RHP 0.264
6/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 52%
B 53%
M 66%
B 59%
TT
Tyrone Taylor RHB◎
Rec 0.308Szn 0.241vs RHP 0.171
6/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 46%
B 53%
M 68%
B 58%
FA
Francisco Alvarez RHB◎
Rec 0.286Szn 0.258vs RHP 0.267
8/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 58%
B 55%
M 71%
B 62%
Lineups & injury report
Marlins · today's lineup
Brian Navarreto · Esteury Ruiz · Heriberto Hernández · Javier Sanoja · Kyle Stowers · Leo Jiménez · Liam Hicks · Otto Lopez · Xavier Edwards
Injured list
D10 Owen Caissie Right calf strain
Mets · today's lineup
Aj Ewing · Bo Bichette · Brett Baty · Carson Benge · Eric Wagaman · Francisco Alvarez · Francisco Lindor · Jared Young · Jorge Polanco · Luis Robert · Luis Torrens · Marcus Semien · Tyrone Taylor
Injured list
D10 Juan Soto Left calf strain
D10 Mark Vientos Right hand fracture
Pirates
4-6
BOOK 52%MODEL 56%
07:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
Reds
6-4
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
PiratesReds
1st inn · no leanM 52% NRFIB 46% NRFI
F5O 5.5
Starting pitchers
YR
Yohan Ramírez RHP
6–3 · 0 GS
ERA
3.57
K/G
1.4
H/G
1.0
WHIP
1.53
L5 ERA
3.00
ST 35.0%FF 24.8%SI 24.5%CU 14.8%SL 0.4%
vs Reds lineup · 42 PA career
.306
AVG
.405
OBP
.333
SLG
26.2
K%
9.5
BB%
88.1
EV
40.0
Hard%
0
HR
last 1 starts · thru Apr 18
3.00
ERA
2.00
WHIP
3.0
IP
1
K
2
BB
1
HR
3.0
K/9
6.0
BB/9
0.5
K/BB
RL
Rhett Lowder RHP
3–7 · 15 GS
ERA
5.82
K/G
4.3
H/G
5.6
WHIP
1.63
L5 ERA
6.00
K o4.5
O
/U
(U 56%)
Outs o15.5
O
/U
(O 67%)
SI 30.6%SL 28.0%FF 21.3%CH 20.0%
vs Pirates lineup · 17 PA career
.333
AVG
.529
OBP
.500
SLG
0.0
K%
29.4
BB%
94.7
EV
58.3
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 24
6.00
ERA
1.69
WHIP
22.5
IP
23
K
10
BB
5
HR
9.2
K/9
4.0
BB/9
2.3
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Pirates
●●
Nick Gonzales◎
vs Hand .326Hot .363
Reds
●●
Tyler Stephenson◎
vs P .500Hot .333
●●●
Dane Myers◎
vs Team .322vs Hand .285Hot .294
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Pirates1+ HitH+R+RBI
BL
Brandon Lowe LHB◎
Rec 0.500Szn 0.255vs RHP 0.266
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 71%
B 73%
M 50%
B 60%
NG
Nick Gonzales RHB◎
Rec 0.364Szn 0.315vs RHP 0.326
10/10 1+
vs even SP
M 36%
B 37%
M 49%
B 60%
Reds1+ HitH+R+RBI
TS
Tyler Stephenson RHB◎
Rec 0.357Szn 0.249vs RHP 0.262
6/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 58%
B 64%
M 38%
B 50%
SS
Sal Stewart RHB◎
Rec 0.300Szn 0.253vs RHP 0.234
7/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 64%
B 73%
M 51%
B 58%
DM
Dane Myers RHB◎
Rec 0.294Szn 0.270vs RHP 0.286
7/10 1+
vs TOUGH SP
M 51%
B 62%
M 30%
B 46%
Lineups & injury report
Pirates · today's lineup
Brandon Lowe · Bryan Reynolds · Esmerlyn Valdez · Henry Davis · Jared Triolo · Jhostynxon Garcia · Marcell Ozuna · Nick Gonzales · Ryan O'Hearn
Injured list
D10 Spencer Horwitz Left hamstring strain
D60 Oneil Cruz Left hand fourth and fifth metacarpal non-displaced fractures
D60 Konnor Griffin Left ring finger sagittal back injury
Reds · today's lineup
Dane Myers · Edwin Arroyo · Elly De La Cruz · Eugenio Suárez · Ivan Johnson · Ke'Bryan Hayes · Noelvi Marte · Sal Stewart · Tyler Stephenson
Injured list
D10 Spencer Steer Right wrist sprain
D10 Matt McLain Left calf strain
D10 Blake Dunn Right elbow sprain
Nationals
6-4
07:15 PM ET
Truist Park
Braves
6-4
BOOK 57%MODEL 61%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
NationalsBraves
pickYRFIM 56%B 55%
F5U 5.5
Starting pitchers
JI
Jake Irvin ★ K O3.5 RHP
2–4 · 11 GS
ERA
5.10
K/G
5.3
H/G
4.3
WHIP
1.35
L5 ERA
5.32
K o3.5
O
/U
(O 71%)
Outs o14.5
O
/U
FF 27.7%CU 25.8%SI 23.9%FC 11.2%SL 4.6%
vs Braves lineup · 135 PA career
.190
AVG
.274
OBP
.306
SLG
23.0
K%
8.9
BB%
90.9
EV
48.9
Hard%
3
HR
last 5 starts · thru May 23
5.32
ERA
1.55
WHIP
22.0
IP
24
K
11
BB
3
HR
9.8
K/9
4.5
BB/9
2.18
K/BB
GH
Grant Holmes RHP
6–4 · 19 GS
ERA
3.88
K/G
4.4
H/G
4.7
WHIP
1.39
L5 ERA
2.62
K o4.5
O
/U
(U 64%)
Outs o15.5
O
/U
SL 35.0%FF 31.9%SI 10.9%CU 8.8%FC 7.7%
vs Nationals lineup · 47 PA career
.233
AVG
.298
OBP
.535
SLG
27.7
K%
6.4
BB%
92.2
EV
53.3
Hard%
3
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 24
2.62
ERA
1.17
WHIP
24.0
IP
18
K
6
BB
1
HR
6.8
K/9
2.2
BB/9
3.0
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Nationals
●●
Jorbit Vivas◎
vs P .500vs Team .333
●●
James Wood◎
vs Hand .270Hot .300
●●
Luis García Jr.◎
vs Hand .278Hot .350
Braves
●●
Ronald Acuña Jr.◎
vs P .375vs Hand .274
●●●
Drake Baldwin◎
vs Team .396vs Hand .301Hot .421
●●●
Michael Harris II◎
vs P .318vs Team .309vs Hand .297
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Nationals1+ HitH+R+RBI
JY
Jacob Young RHB◎
Rec 0.500Szn 0.237vs RHP 0.218
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 57%
B 62%
M 41%
B 45%
CA
CJ Abrams LHB◎
Rec 0.368Szn 0.289vs RHP 0.296
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 71%
B 70%
M 54%
B 57%
BH
Brady House RHB◎
Rec 0.364Szn 0.236vs RHP 0.179
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 64%
—
—
Braves1+ HitH+R+RBI
DB
Drake Baldwin LHB◎
Rec 0.375Szn 0.282vs RHP 0.301
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 29%
B 35%
M 39%
B 45%
Lineups & injury report
Nationals · today's lineup
Brady House · Cj Abrams · Daylen Lile · Harry Ford · Jacob Young · James Wood · Jorbit Vivas · Luis García · Nasim Nuñez
Braves · today's lineup
Austin Riley · Drake Baldwin · Eli White · Jim Jarvis · Joey Bart · Matt Olson · Mauricio Dubón · Michael Harris · Mike Yastrzemski · Ozzie Albies · Ronald Acuña
Injured list
D10 Ha-Seong Kim Right middle finger inflammation
Giants
4-6
09:40 PM ET
Petco Park
Padres
7-3
BOOK 54%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
GiantsPadres
1st inn · no leanM 51% YRFIB 50% NRFI
F5O 4.5
Starting pitchers
U
Unknown
last 5 starts
—
ERA
—
WHIP
—
IP
—
K
—
BB
—
HR
—
K/9
—
BB/9
—
K/BB
JS
JP Sears LHP
3–3 · 5 GS
ERA
4.06
K/G
4.6
H/G
4.8
WHIP
1.24
L5 ERA
4.21
FF 39.8%CH 22.2%ST 14.6%SL 13.2%SI 7.9%
vs Giants lineup · 64 PA career
.220
AVG
.266
OBP
.322
SLG
28.1
K%
6.2
BB%
89.1
EV
39.0
Hard%
1
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
4.21
ERA
1.21
WHIP
21.4
IP
18
K
7
BB
4
HR
7.6
K/9
2.9
BB/9
2.57
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Giants
●●●●
Luis Arraez◎
vs P .666vs Team .352vs Hand .302
●●
Heliot Ramos◎
vs Hand .333Hot .318
●●
Jung Hoo Lee◎
vs Hand .277Hot .285
Padres
No aligned batters in the lineup
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Giants1+ HitH+R+RBI
LA
Luis Arraez ★ 1+ Hit LHB◎
Rec 0.455Szn 0.331vs LHP 0.302
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 78%
—
—
JHL
Jung Hoo Lee ★ 1+ Hit LHB◎
Rec 0.385Szn 0.305vs LHP 0.277
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 73%
—
—
HR
Heliot Ramos RHB◎
Rec 0.318Szn 0.264vs LHP 0.333
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 68%
—
—
Padres1+ HitH+R+RBI
JM
Jackson Merrill LHB
Rec 0.450Szn 0.235
7/10 1+
—
—
TF
Ty France RHB
Rec 0.400Szn 0.285
9/10 1+
—
—
MM
Manny Machado RHB
Rec 0.391Szn 0.219
8/10 1+
—
—
Lineups & injury report
Giants · today's lineup
Bryce Eldridge · Christian Koss · Daniel Susac · Grant Mccray · Heliot Ramos · Jung Hoo Lee · Luis Arraez · Rafael Devers · Willy Adames
Injured list
D10 Casey Schmitt Left knee meniscus tear
D10 Matt Chapman Abdominal strain
D10 Harrison Bader Left plantar fasciitis
Padres · today's lineup
Fernando Tatis · Freddy Fermin · Gavin Sheets · Jackson Merrill · Jake Cronenworth · Luis Rengifo · Manny Machado · Ty France · Xander Bogaerts
Injured list
D10 Miguel Andujar Right wrist fracture
D60 Ramón Laureano
D10 Samad Taylor Right oblique strain
Red Sox
7-3
BOOK 60%MODEL 60%
09:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
Athletics
3-7
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
Red SoxAthletics
1st inn · no leanM 54% YRFIB 45% NRFI
F5O 5.5
Starting pitchers
SG
Sonny Gray RHP
12–2 · 19 GS
ERA
2.82
K/G
4.9
H/G
5.1
WHIP
1.18
L5 ERA
2.39
K o4.5
O
/U
(O 50%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
SI 20.5%FC 20.4%ST 18.7%FF 18.0%CU 16.5%
vs Athletics lineup · 36 PA career
.281
AVG
.333
OBP
.312
SLG
16.7
K%
8.3
BB%
85.6
EV
30.8
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
2.39
ERA
1.10
WHIP
30.1
IP
27
K
8
BB
3
HR
8.1
K/9
2.4
BB/9
3.38
K/BB
MB
Mason Barnett ★ RHP
1–1 · 0 GS
ERA
4.98
K/G
1.6
H/G
1.5
WHIP
1.45
L5 ERA
2.54
FF 42.2%SL 25.3%ST 16.4%CU 12.8%CH 3.2%
vs Red Sox lineup · 20 PA career
.389
AVG
.450
OBP
.444
SLG
20.0
K%
10.0
BB%
92.6
EV
64.3
Hard%
0
HR
last 2 starts · thru Jul 25
2.54
ERA
1.13
WHIP
7.1
IP
9
K
3
BB
0
HR
11.4
K/9
3.8
BB/9
3.0
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Red Sox
●●
Andruw Monasterio◎
vs Team .400Hot .375
●●
Caleb Durbin◎
vs Team .304Hot .411
Athletics
●●●
Jacob Wilson◎
vs P .500vs Team .333vs Hand .288
●●●
Tommy White◎
vs Team .307vs Hand .347Hot .285
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Red Sox1+ HitH+R+RBI
CD
Caleb Durbin RHB◎
Rec 0.412Szn 0.244vs RHP 0.237
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 18%
B 37%
M 35%
B 44%
AM
Andruw Monasterio RHB◎
Rec 0.375Szn 0.259vs RHP 0.229
9/10 1+
vs even SP
M 57%
B 70%
M 47%
B 56%
Athletics1+ HitH+R+RBI
TW
Tommy White RHB◎
Rec 0.286Szn 0.318vs RHP 0.348
5/10 1+
vs even SP
M 30%
B 34%
M 48%
B 57%
TS
Tyler Soderstrom LHB◎
Rec 0.200Szn 0.249vs RHP 0.256
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 64%
B 70%
M 52%
B 56%
JH
Jonah Heim SHB◎
Rec 0.200Szn 0.235vs RHP 0.181
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 60%
B 69%
M 45%
B 53%
Lineups & injury report
Red Sox · today's lineup
Andruw Monasterio · Caleb Durbin · Ceddanne Rafaela · Connor Wong · Jahmai Jones · Nick Sogard · Romy Gonzalez · Willson Contreras · Wilyer Abreu
Injured list
D10 Curtis Mead Left wrist tracture
D10 Marcelo Mayer Bone stress reaction to the left ulna
D60 Trevor Story Sports hernia
D60 Roman Anthony
Athletics · today's lineup
Alika Williams · Colby Thomas · Henry Bolte · Jacob Wilson · Jonah Heim · Lawrence Butler · Nick Kurtz · Tommy White · Tyler Soderstrom
Injured list
D10 Shea Langeliers Torn meniscus in right knee
D10 Zack Gelof Right knee laceration
D60 Brent Rooker Bone bruise in left knee
D10 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer Ruptured testicle surgery
Mariners
4-6
10:10 PM ET
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Dodgers
6-4
BOOK 59%MODEL 62%
Game odds full game · 1st 5 innings
TeamRun lineTotalMoney1st 5 ML
MarinersDodgers
1st inn · no leanM 50% YRFIB 50% NRFI
F5U 4.5
Starting pitchers
BW
Bryan Woo RHP
7–7 · 20 GS
ERA
4.41
K/G
5.7
H/G
5.3
WHIP
1.15
L5 ERA
5.86
K o5.5
O
/U
(U 58%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
FF 47.7%SI 17.5%SL 15.6%ST 12.0%CH 6.6%
vs Dodgers lineup · 26 PA career
.182
AVG
.269
OBP
.364
SLG
15.4
K%
11.5
BB%
88.7
EV
38.9
Hard%
1
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 25
5.86
ERA
1.61
WHIP
26.1
IP
26
K
8
BB
3
HR
9.0
K/9
2.8
BB/9
3.25
K/BB
RS
Roki Sasaki RHP
4–5 · 18 GS
ERA
4.80
K/G
5.2
H/G
4.7
WHIP
1.32
L5 ERA
4.64
K o5.5
O
/U
(U 63%)
Outs o17.5
O
/U
(O 82%)
FF 42.7%FS 31.7%SL 23.2%FO 2.2%SI 0.1%
vs Mariners lineup · 6 PA career
.333
AVG
.333
OBP
.667
SLG
33.3
K%
0.0
BB%
94.2
EV
50.0
Hard%
0
HR
last 5 starts · thru Jul 24
4.64
ERA
1.31
WHIP
25.2
IP
24
K
11
BB
7
HR
8.6
K/9
3.9
BB/9
2.18
K/BB
Matchup signals multi-signal · ◎ last-5 pitch map
Mariners
●●
Cole Young◎
vs Team .307Hot .315
Dodgers
●●●
Shohei Ohtani◎
vs P .500vs Hand .289Hot .400
●●
Dalton Rushing◎
vs Team .470Hot .375
●●●
Freddie Freeman◎
vs Team .309vs Hand .326Hot .523
Batter props Hit rate · last 10
Mariners1+ HitH+R+RBI
DC
Dominic Canzone LHB◎
Rec 0.350Szn 0.264vs RHP 0.261
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 59%
B 64%
M 44%
B 48%
CY
Cole Young LHB◎
Rec 0.316Szn 0.254vs RHP 0.254
6/10 1+
vs even SP
M 65%
B 66%
M 47%
B 49%
JN
Josh Naylor LHB◎
Rec 0.300Szn 0.261vs RHP 0.242
8/10 1+
vs even SP
M 68%
B 65%
M 46%
B 49%
Dodgers1+ HitH+R+RBI
FF
Freddie Freeman ★ 1+ Hit LHB◎
Rec 0.524Szn 0.302vs RHP 0.326
9/10 1+
vs even SP
M 73%
B 69%
M 51%
B 53%
SO
Shohei Ohtani ★ 1+ Hit LHB◎
Rec 0.400Szn 0.289vs RHP 0.290
7/10 1+
vs even SP
M 72%
B 73%
M 55%
B 60%
DR
Dalton Rushing LHB◎
Rec 0.333Szn 0.257vs RHP 0.268
5/10 1+
vs even SP
M 59%
B 57%
M 42%
B 45%
Lineups & injury report
Mariners · today's lineup
Cal Raleigh · Cole Young · Colt Emerson · Dominic Canzone · Josh Naylor · Julio Rodríguez · Randy Arozarena · Rob Refsnyder · Weston Wilson
Injured list
D10 Brendan Donovan Left groin muscle strain
Dodgers · today's lineup
Andy Pages · Dalton Rushing · Freddie Freeman · Kyle Tucker · Max Muncy · Mookie Betts · Shohei Ohtani · Teoscar Hernández · Tommy Edman
Injured list
D60 Will Smith Neck inflammation
★ Top winner the single biggest favorite · log5 win% · a proven read, not an edge58% · 42/73 last 14d
★ Top hits most likely to get a hit · P(1+ hit) · backtest-calibrated66% · 54/82 last 14d
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Luis Arraez
1+ hit
HIT 78%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Otto Lopez
1+ hit · −256
HIT 74%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Jung Hoo Lee
1+ hit
HIT 73%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Freddie Freeman
1+ hit · −227
HIT 73%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Jonathan Aranda
1+ hit · −238
HIT 72%
MOST LIKELY TO HIT
Shohei Ohtani
1+ hit · −265
HIT 72%
★ Top H+R+RBI Hits+Runs+RBIs · best-calibrated model (HRR V2, ECE 0.007)52% · 53/102 last 17d
★ Top strikeout picks per-PA Poisson · backtest-calibrated (ECE 0.05)51% · 41/80 last 14d
◇ Top HR shots proving · not counted HR V7 (park×wind×Statcast) — validating live before it earns a Best Playclaimed 23% · hit 15% (22/144)
TOP HR SHOT
Shohei Ohtani
HR · vs Bryan Woo
31%
TOP HR SHOT
Nick Kurtz
HR · vs Sonny Gray
31%
TOP HR SHOT
Matt Olson
HR · vs Jake Irvin
25%
TOP HR SHOT
Esmerlyn Valdez
HR · vs Rhett Lowder
25%
TOP HR SHOT
James Wood
HR · vs Grant Holmes
24%
TOP HR SHOT
Munetaka Murakami
HR · vs Ryan Weathers
19%
TOP HR SHOT
Teoscar Hernández
HR · vs Bryan Woo
19%
TOP HR SHOT
Marcell Ozuna
HR · vs Rhett Lowder
19%