BallKnowMe MLB matchups, by the numbers

Pick Results — how the board's leans resolved, day by day
Track record · how often our leans hit
Hitters 75% 76/102 Winners 59% 26/44 F5 59% 34/58 NRFI 49% 30/61 Total 47% 15/32 Spreads 67% 18/27 HRR 51% 47/93 K 48% 73/151 Alt spread 35% 11/31 Overall 55% 330/599
599 graded leans since Jul 03, 2026 · every pick shows the model's read, the public's money, and the de-vigged Vegas line — you decide.
(Flat-betting every lean at the book's price runs -4.3% on the vig — we don't claim to beat it, we surface honest odds so you can.)
Tonight's board is still provisional. It locks at 11 AM ET, then freezes for the day — numbers can still move until then.
Tonight — tick to build your slip Winners 1 pend Hitters 6 pend HRR 3 pend
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx · Cubs 52%
ctx · White Sox 52%
ctx · Marlins 53%
· Rays 63%
ctx · Dodgers 62%
ctx · Braves 61%
ctx · Red Sox 60%
ctx · Twins 59%
ctx · Pirates 56%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
· ★ Otto Lopez 74% -247
· ★ Jung Hoo Lee 73% -230
· ★ Freddie Freeman 73% -227
· ★ Jonathan Aranda 72% -238
· ★ Shohei Ohtani 72% -265
· ★ Alec Burleson 71% -271
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx · BOS@ATH YRFI 54%
ctx · CHC@STL YRFI 51%
ctx · KC@MIN NRFI 51%
ctx · MIA@NYM YRFI 52%
ctx · NYY@CHW YRFI 52%
ctx · PIT@CIN NRFI 52%
ctx · SEA@LAD YRFI 50%
ctx · WSH@ATL YRFI 56%
F5 O/U
ctx · BOS@ATH OVER 5.5 -118
ctx · CHC@STL UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx · KC@MIN OVER 5.5 -130
ctx · MIA@NYM OVER 3.5 -125
ctx · NYY@CHW UNDER 3.5 +100
ctx · PIT@CIN OVER 5.5 -125
ctx · SEA@LAD UNDER 4.5 -102
ctx · TEX@TB UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx · WSH@ATL UNDER 5.5 -118
Game O/U
ctx · TEX@TB OVER 7.5
ctx · KC@MIN UNDER 9.5
ctx · NYY@CHW OVER 7.5
ctx · CHC@STL UNDER 8.5
ctx · MIA@NYM OVER 7
ctx · PIT@CIN UNDER 9.5
ctx · WSH@ATL UNDER 9.5
ctx · BOS@ATH UNDER 10.5
ctx · SEA@LAD UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx · Shane McClanahan UNDER 4.5 +129
ctx · Noah Cameron OVER 4.5 -110
ctx · Bailey Ober UNDER 4.5 -153
ctx · Ryan Weathers UNDER 6.5 -131
ctx · Sean Burke UNDER 7.5 -130
ctx · Javier Assad OVER 2.5 -158
ctx · Andre Pallante UNDER 4.5 -166
ctx · Eury Pérez OVER 5.5
ctx · Nolan McLean OVER 6.5 -107
ctx · Rhett Lowder UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx · Jake Irvin OVER 3.5 -140
ctx · Grant Holmes UNDER 4.5 -135
ctx · Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 -115
ctx · Bryan Woo OVER 4.5 -164
ctx · Roki Sasaki UNDER 5.5 -124
ctx · JP Sears OVER 3.5 -120
H+R+RBI
· Francisco Alvarez OVER 0.5 -153
· Tyrone Taylor OVER 0.5 -144
· Jared Young OVER 0.5 -144
ctx · Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 -150
ctx · Otto Lopez OVER 1.5 -112
ctx · CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 -133
Run Line
ctx · TEX@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx · KC@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx · NYY@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx · CHC@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx · MIA@NYM AWAY 1.5
ctx · PIT@CIN AWAY 1.5
ctx · WSH@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx · SF@SD AWAY 1.5
ctx · BOS@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx · SEA@LAD AWAY 1.5
Wed Jul 29 Hitters 2/6-52.8% -3.2u HRR 2/3+13.7% +0.4u +3 ctx Day -30.6% -2.8u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ D-backs 52%
ctx ✓ Guardians 51%
ctx ✗ Tigers 55%
ctx ✗ Twins 55%
ctx ✗ Yankees 55%
ctx ✗ Phillies 52%
ctx ✓ Padres 57%
ctx ✗ Nationals 53%
V Brewers 62%
ctx ✓ Braves (G2) 62%
ctx ✓ Red Sox 61%
ctx ✓ Rays 59%
ctx ✓ Dodgers 58%
ctx ✗ Cubs 55%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✗ ★ Michael Harris II (G1) 75% -269
✓ ★ Drake Baldwin (G1) 73% -262
✗ ★ Kevin McGonigle 73% -195
✗ ★ Ozzie Albies (G1) 72% -256
✓ ★ Alec Burleson 72% -223
✗ ★ Chandler Simpson 71% -230
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G2) NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G1) NRFI 53%
ctx ✓ BAL@DET NRFI 52%
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH NRFI 54%
ctx ✗ CHC@STL YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CLE@CIN YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ COL@SD YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ KC@MIN YRFI 50%
ctx V MIL@SF NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SEA@LAD YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ TEX@TB YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH YRFI 51%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G1) UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G2) UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx ✗ BAL@DET UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx · BOS@ATH OVER 5.5 -105
ctx ✓ CHC@STL UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA OVER 5.5 -110
ctx ✓ KC@MIN UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx V MIL@SF UNDER 3.5 -105
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx · SEA@LAD OVER 5.5 -106
ctx ✓ TEX@TB UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH OVER 5.5 -125
Game O/U
ctx ✓ PHI@MIA OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ ARI@PIT UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH OVER 9.5
ctx ✗ ATL@NYM (G1) OVER 8
ctx ✓ BAL@DET OVER 7.5
ctx V MIL@SF OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ TEX@TB UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G2) UNDER 8
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN UNDER 9
ctx ✓ KC@MIN UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ CHC@STL UNDER 8
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA UNDER 10
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH UNDER 10.5
ctx ✓ SEA@LAD UNDER 9.5
ctx ✓ COL@SD UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✓ Jesús Luzardo UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ Ryan Gusto OVER 3.5 -155
ctx ✗ Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 4.5 -128
ctx ✗ Jared Jones UNDER 4.5 +128
ctx ✗ Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5 +107
ctx ✗ Zack Littell OVER 2.5 -155
ctx ✓ Sean Manaea (G1) UNDER 4.5 +126
ctx ✗ Trevor Rogers UNDER 4.5 +111
ctx ✓ Tarik Skubal UNDER 8.5 -132
ctx V Shane Drohan OVER 4.5 -165
ctx ✓ Logan Webb UNDER 5.5 -144
ctx ✗ Gabriel Hughes OVER 4.5 +109
ctx ✗ MacKenzie Gore UNDER 5.5 -161
ctx ✗ Chris Sale (G2) UNDER 7.5 -135
ctx ✗ Christian Scott (G2) UNDER 5.5 -140
ctx ✗ Joey Cantillo UNDER 5.5 +119
ctx ✗ Brady Singer OVER 4.5 -103
ctx ✓ Randy Dobnak OVER 2.5 -106
ctx ✗ Joe Ryan OVER 6.5 +108
ctx ✗ Cam Schlittler UNDER 7.5 -148
ctx ✓ Davis Martin OVER 4.5 -154
ctx ✗ Matthew Boyd UNDER 4.5 -128
ctx ✗ Dustin May OVER 5.5 +105
ctx ✗ Grayson Rodriguez UNDER 4.5 -141
ctx ✓ Patrick Sandoval OVER 4.5 -115
ctx ✗ Jacob Lopez UNDER 4.5 -131
ctx ✓ Emerson Hancock OVER 4.5 +109
ctx ✓ Eric Lauer UNDER 4.5 -173
H+R+RBI
✓ Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 -135
✗ Colt Emerson OVER 0.5 -156
✓ Jackson Holliday OVER 0.5 -149
ctx ✓ Jeremy Peña OVER 1.5 -167
ctx ✗ CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 -119
ctx ✓ Drake Baldwin (G1) OVER 1.5 -131
Run Line
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ARI@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TOR@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx V MIL@SF AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ COL@SD AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TEX@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ KC@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ HOU@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ SEA@LAD AWAY 1.5
Tue Jul 28 Winners 0/1 +15 ctx Hitters 5/5+39.2% +2.0u HRR 2/2· 2 priced +3 ctx Day +46.6% +3.3u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✗ Reds (G1) 56%
ctx ✗ Guardians (G2) 51%
ctx ✓ Tigers 58%
ctx ✓ Astros 58%
✗ Dodgers 65%
ctx ✓ Marlins 54%
ctx ✓ Yankees 51%
ctx ✗ Pirates 53%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 52%
ctx ✗ Rays 59%
ctx ✓ Padres 65%
ctx ✓ Brewers 63%
ctx · Braves (G2) 62%
ctx ✗ Red Sox 60%
ctx ✓ Twins 59%
ctx ✓ Nationals 58%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ CJ Abrams 73% -247
✓ ★ Jackson Merrill 73% -239
· ★ Michael Harris II (G2) 71% -238
✓ ★ Jeremy Peña 71% -252
✓ ★ Brandon Lowe 70% -275
✓ ★ Ryan Jeffers 70% -265
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✓ ARI@PIT YRFI 54%
ctx · ATL@NYM (G2) NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ BAL@DET YRFI 55%
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH NRFI 55%
ctx ✗ CHC@STL NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ CLE@CIN (G2) NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CLE@CIN (G1) NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ COL@SD YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ KC@MIN YRFI 53%
ctx ✓ MIL@SF NRFI 52%
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ PHI@MIA YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SEA@LAD YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ TEX@TB YRFI 53%
ctx ✓ TOR@WSH YRFI 51%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx · ATL@NYM (G2) UNDER 3.5 +100
ctx ✗ BAL@DET UNDER 5.5 -110
ctx ✗ BOS@ATH OVER 5.5 -110
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN (G2) UNDER 5.0 -118
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN (G1) OVER 5.0 -118
ctx ✗ COL@SD UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ KC@MIN UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ MIL@SF UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW OVER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ PHI@MIA UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ SEA@LAD OVER 5.5 -102
ctx ✗ TEX@TB OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH UNDER 4.5 -102
Game O/U
ctx ✗ CLE@CIN (G1) UNDER 9
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT UNDER 9
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA OVER 8
ctx ✗ BAL@DET UNDER 9
ctx ✓ TOR@WSH OVER 8.5
ctx · ATL@NYM (G2) UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ KC@MIN UNDER 9
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW UNDER 8
ctx ✓ HOU@LAA UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ COL@SD OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH UNDER 9.5
ctx ✓ MIL@SF OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ TEX@TB UNDER 8
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN (G2) UNDER 9
ctx ✗ CHC@STL UNDER 9
ctx ✗ SEA@LAD UNDER 9.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Slade Cecconi (G1) OVER 4.5 -123
ctx ✗ Chase Burns (G1) OVER 6.5 +108
ctx ✗ Griffin Jax UNDER 5.5 -130
ctx ✓ Brandon Pfaadt OVER 3.5 -178
ctx ✗ Bubba Chandler OVER 3.5 -153
ctx ✓ Aaron Nola UNDER 5.5 -174
ctx ✓ Sandy Alcantara UNDER 5.5 -147
ctx ✗ Dean Kremer OVER 4.5 -161
ctx ✓ Troy Melton UNDER 5.5 -117
ctx ✓ Shane Bieber UNDER 4.5 -173
ctx ✗ Cade Cavalli OVER 4.5 +113
ctx · Chris Sale (G2) UNDER 7.5 -149
ctx · Christian Scott (G2) UNDER 5.5 -157
ctx ✗ Seth Lugo OVER 3.5 -164
ctx ✓ Taj Bradley OVER 6.5 -101
ctx ✗ Gerrit Cole UNDER 6.5 -138
ctx ✗ Anthony Kay UNDER 4.5 -106
ctx ✗ Colin Rea OVER 3.5 -111
ctx ✓ Peter Lambert OVER 5.5 +110
ctx ✗ Reid Detmers UNDER 6.5 -140
ctx ✗ Michael Lorenzen OVER 3.5 -123
ctx ✗ Michael King UNDER 5.5 -140
ctx ✓ Jake Bennett OVER 3.5 -142
ctx ✗ Gage Jump UNDER 5.5 -119
ctx ✓ Logan Henderson OVER 5.5 +104
ctx ✗ Landen Roupp OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ Luis Castillo UNDER 4.5 -101
ctx ✗ Gavin Williams (G2) UNDER 7.5 +102
ctx ✗ Cal Quantrill UNDER 2.5 +116
H+R+RBI
· Marcus Semien (G2) OVER 0.5 -158
✓ Christian Vázquez OVER 0.5 -145
✓ Evan Carter OVER 0.5 -164
ctx ✓ CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 -135
ctx ✓ Jarren Duran OVER 1.5 -112
ctx ✗ Dillon Dingler OVER 1.5 -154
Run Line
ctx ✓ CLE@CIN (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TEX@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ARI@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ PHI@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ BAL@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx · ATL@NYM (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CLE@CIN (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ KC@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ HOU@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ COL@SD AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ MIL@SF AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SEA@LAD AWAY 1.5
Mon Jul 27 Winners 0/1 +11 ctx Hitters 2/6-53.3% -3.2u HRR 2/3+10.8% +0.3u +3 ctx Day -31.9% -2.9u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✗ Tigers 53%
ctx ✗ Angels 53%
ctx ✗ Phillies 55%
ctx ✓ Pirates 51%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 50%
ctx ✓ Rangers 52%
✗ Nationals 63%
ctx ✗ Brewers 62%
ctx ✓ Red Sox 62%
ctx ✗ Braves 59%
ctx · Reds (G1) 56%
ctx ✓ Yankees 56%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Nick Gonzales 78% -264
✗ ★ Wyatt Langford 77% -219
✗ ★ Alec Burleson 76% -268
✗ ★ Ryan O'Hearn 73% -234
✗ ★ Brice Turang 73% -253
✓ ★ Brandon Nimmo 72% -237
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ BAL@DET NRFI 53%
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH YRFI 56%
ctx ✓ CHC@STL YRFI 55%
ctx · CLE@CIN (G1) NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ MIL@SF YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH YRFI 54%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ ATL@NYM OVER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ BAL@DET UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ BOS@ATH OVER 5.5 -125
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ MIL@SF UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx ✗ TOR@WSH OVER 5.5 -105
Game O/U
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ ARI@PIT OVER 9.5
ctx ✗ PHI@MIA UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ BAL@DET UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ TOR@WSH UNDER 10
ctx ✗ ATL@NYM UNDER 8.5
ctx · CLE@CIN (G1) UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ NYY@CHW UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ HOU@LAA UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ MIL@SF OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ CHC@STL OVER 9.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✓ George Kirby UNDER 5.5 -138
ctx ✓ Kumar Rocker OVER 4.5 -116
ctx ✓ Merrill Kelly OVER 4.5 +115
ctx ✓ Mitch Keller OVER 3.5 -165
ctx ✓ Zack Wheeler UNDER 7.5 -162
ctx ✓ Tyler Phillips OVER 3.5 -135
ctx ✓ Kyle Bradish UNDER 5.5 -110
ctx ✗ Keider Montero OVER 4.5 +105
ctx ✓ Max Scherzer OVER 3.5 +130
ctx ✗ Andrew Alvarez OVER 3.5 -123
ctx ✓ Martín Pérez OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Zach Thornton OVER 4.5 +115
ctx · Slade Cecconi (G1) OVER 4.5 -107
ctx · Chase Burns (G1) OVER 6.5 +124
ctx ✗ Max Fried OVER 5.5 +110
ctx ✗ Noah Schultz UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ David Peterson UNDER 3.5 -148
ctx ✗ Tatsuya Imai OVER 5.5 -160
ctx ✓ Walbert Urena OVER 4.5 -120
ctx ✓ Payton Tolle OVER 5.5 -125
ctx ✗ Jack Perkins OVER 4.5 -120
ctx ✗ Brandon Sproat UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ Tyler Mahle OVER 4.5 -150
ctx ✗ Matthew Liberatore UNDER 4.5 -150
H+R+RBI
✓ Jared Young OVER 0.5 -153
✗ CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 -154
✓ Drew Gilbert OVER 0.5 -149
ctx ✗ Jarren Duran OVER 1.5 -130
ctx ✗ Ryan O'Hearn OVER 1.5 -127
ctx ✓ Dillon Dingler OVER 1.5 -121
Run Line
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ARI@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ PHI@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TOR@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ATL@NYM AWAY 1.5
ctx · CLE@CIN (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYY@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ HOU@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BOS@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIL@SF AWAY 1.5
Sun Jul 26 Winners 1/1 +14 ctx Hitters 6/6+41.7% +2.5u HRR 3/3+64.5% +1.9u +3 ctx Day +49.3% +4.4u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✗ D-backs 54%
ctx ✓ Braves 55%
ctx ✓ White Sox 56%
ctx ✗ Marlins 53%
ctx ✓ Phillies 54%
ctx ✓ Pirates 51%
ctx ✗ Giants 54%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 56%
ctx ✗ Rangers 53%
✓ Brewers 70%
ctx ✗ Dodgers 63%
ctx ✓ Twins 60%
ctx ✓ Red Sox 60%
ctx ✗ Tigers 57%
ctx ✓ Rays 56%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Brice Turang 78% -263
✓ ★ Nick Gonzales 75% -248
✓ ★ Freddie Freeman 75% -249
✓ ★ Ceddanne Rafaela 72% -252
✓ ★ Drake Baldwin 72% -259
✓ ★ Cooper Pratt 72% -188
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH NRFI 53%
ctx ✓ ATH@MIN YRFI 56%
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL YRFI 58%
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ CIN@STL YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ CLE@TB NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ COL@MIL YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ KC@DET YRFI 56%
ctx ✗ LAA@SF NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ LAD@NYM YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ NYY@PHI NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ SD@MIA YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS YRFI 50%
F5 O/U
ctx ✓ ARI@WSH OVER 5.5 -125
ctx ✓ ATH@MIN OVER 5.5 -110
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL OVER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ CIN@STL UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ CLE@TB OVER 3.5 -125
ctx ✗ COL@MIL UNDER 3.5 -115
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW UNDER 5.5 -102
ctx ✗ KC@DET UNDER 5.5 -110
ctx ✗ LAA@SF UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ LAD@NYM UNDER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ NYY@PHI OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✗ SD@MIA OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 3.5 -105
ctx ✓ TOR@BOS UNDER 4.5 -110
Game O/U
ctx ✓ CLE@TB UNDER 7
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH UNDER 10
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM UNDER 9
ctx ✗ SD@MIA OVER 8.5
ctx P KC@DET UNDER 9
ctx ✓ ATH@MIN OVER 9.5
ctx ✓ COL@MIL OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ HOU@CHW OVER 9.5
ctx ✓ CIN@STL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 7
ctx ✓ LAA@SF UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ NYY@PHI UNDER 8
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✓ Parker Messick OVER 4.5 -135
ctx ✓ Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 -155
ctx ✓ Jameson Taillon UNDER 4.5 -116
ctx ✗ Braxton Ashcraft OVER 5.5 -133
ctx ✗ Kevin Gausman UNDER 5.5 -126
ctx ✓ Ranger Suárez OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Reynaldo López OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Shane Baz UNDER 5.5 -169
ctx ✗ Emmet Sheehan OVER 5.5 -151
ctx ✗ Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 +109
ctx ✗ Walker Buehler UNDER 4.5 -178
ctx ✓ Janson Junk OVER 3.5 -176
ctx ✓ Luinder Avila UNDER 4.5 -153
ctx ✗ Framber Valdez OVER 4.5 -140
ctx ✓ Jeffrey Springs UNDER 4.5 -155
ctx ✓ Connor Prielipp OVER 4.5 +104
ctx ✓ Kyle Freeland UNDER 4.5 -157
ctx ✗ Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 8.5 -148
ctx ✓ Erick Fedde UNDER 3.5 -152
ctx ✓ Andrew Abbott OVER 3.5 -170
ctx ✓ Kyle Leahy OVER 4.5 -106
ctx ✗ Logan Gilbert OVER 6.5 -107
ctx ✓ Jacob deGrom UNDER 7.5 -151
ctx ✓ José Soriano OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Will Warren OVER 4.5 +133
ctx ✓ Cristopher Sánchez UNDER 7.5
ctx V Miles Mikolas OVER 2.5 -150
H+R+RBI
✓ Hunter Goodman OVER 0.5 -161
ctx ✓ Jackson Holliday OVER 0.5 -178
ctx ✓ Colt Emerson OVER 0.5 -141
ctx ✓ Brice Turang OVER 1.5 -140
✓ Nick Fortes OVER 0.5 -163
✓ Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 -143
Run Line
ctx ✓ CLE@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATL@BAL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ KC@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ATH@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ COL@MIL HOME -1.5
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CIN@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAA@SF AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ NYY@PHI AWAY 1.5
Sat Jul 25 Winners 1/1 +14 ctx Hitters 4/5+12.2% +0.6u HRR 1/2· 2 priced +3 ctx Day +4.0% +0.3u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✗ Braves 55%
ctx ✗ Red Sox 58%
ctx ✓ Cubs 51%
ctx ✗ Marlins 55%
ctx ✓ Twins 57%
ctx ✗ Phillies 51%
ctx ✓ Cardinals 57%
ctx ✓ Rangers 53%
ctx ✓ Nationals 55%
✓ Brewers 65%
ctx ✓ Dodgers 64%
ctx ✓ Rays 60%
ctx ✓ Giants 60%
ctx ✗ Tigers 59%
ctx ✗ White Sox 58%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✗ ★ Yordan Alvarez 74% -239
✓ ★ Nick Gonzales 73% -241
✓ ★ CJ Abrams 72% -264
V ★ Chase DeLauter 71% -215
✓ ★ Jeremy Peña 71% -250
✓ ★ Junior Caminero 70% -239
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✓ ARI@WSH NRFI 52%
ctx V ATH@MIN YRFI 54%
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT YRFI 54%
ctx ✓ CIN@STL YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ CLE@TB NRFI 53%
ctx ✗ COL@MIL YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ KC@DET NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ LAA@SF YRFI 56%
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ NYY@PHI YRFI 50%
ctx ✗ SD@MIA YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ TOR@BOS NRFI 51%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✓ CIN@STL UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ CLE@TB UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ COL@MIL UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ KC@DET UNDER 4.5 -102
ctx ✗ LAA@SF UNDER 5.5 -110
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM UNDER 3.5 +100
ctx ✓ SD@MIA UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 3.5 +112
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS UNDER 3.5 +100
Game O/U
ctx ✓ KC@DET UNDER 8
ctx ✓ ARI@WSH UNDER 9
ctx ✗ LAA@SF UNDER 9
ctx ✗ SD@MIA UNDER 8
ctx ✓ TOR@BOS UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ CLE@TB UNDER 8
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ ATL@BAL UNDER 9
ctx ✗ COL@MIL UNDER 9
ctx ✓ HOU@CHW UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ CIN@STL OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ NYY@PHI UNDER 9
ctx V ATH@MIN UNDER 10
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Michael Wacha OVER 4.5 -160
ctx ✓ Casey Mize UNDER 5.5 -135
ctx ✗ Mitch Bratt OVER 3.5 -105
ctx ✗ Foster Griffin OVER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ Ryan Johnson UNDER 3.5 +100
ctx ✗ Robbie Ray OVER 5.5 -135
ctx ✗ JP Sears OVER 3.5 -110
ctx ✓ Eury Pérez UNDER 6.5
ctx ✓ Dylan Cease OVER 7.5 +100
ctx ✓ Sonny Gray UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✗ Ryan Weathers UNDER 6.5 -165
ctx ✗ Tanner Bibee UNDER 4.5 -188
ctx ✗ Nick Martinez UNDER 3.5 -160
ctx ✓ Shota Imanaga UNDER 5.5 -115
ctx ✗ Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 +100
ctx ✗ Bryce Elder UNDER 4.5 +110
ctx ✓ Brandon Young OVER 4.5 +110
ctx ✓ Ryan Feltner UNDER 4.5 -165
ctx ✓ Robert Gasser UNDER 5.5 -155
ctx ✗ Hunter Brown UNDER 5.5 -110
ctx ✓ Sean Burke OVER 5.5 +105
ctx ✗ Bryan Woo OVER 5.5 -140
ctx ✓ Nathan Eovaldi OVER 6.5 +115
ctx ✓ Hunter Greene UNDER 6.5 -145
ctx ✗ Andre Pallante UNDER 4.5 -140
ctx ✗ Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 6.5 +120
ctx ✗ Nolan McLean UNDER 6.5 -155
H+R+RBI
V Joe Mack OVER 0.5 -157
✓ Francisco Alvarez OVER 0.5 -149
✗ Isaac Collins OVER 0.5 -172
ctx ✗ Jared Triolo OVER 0.5 -167
ctx ✓ Nicky Lopez OVER 0.5 -178
ctx ✗ Jared Young OVER 0.5 -139
Run Line
ctx ✓ KC@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ LAA@SF AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TOR@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYY@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CLE@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATL@BAL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ATH@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ COL@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ HOU@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CIN@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAD@NYM AWAY 1.5
Fri Jul 24 Winners 0/1 +15 ctx Hitters 5/6+18.7% +1.1u HRR 1/2· 2 priced +3 ctx Day +9.4% +0.8u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ D-backs 58%
ctx ✓ Braves 56%
ctx ✓ Red Sox 55%
ctx ✓ Cubs 51%
ctx ✗ White Sox 59%
ctx ✗ Marlins 56%
ctx ✓ Yankees 53%
ctx V Phillies 52%
ctx ✗ Mariners 53%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 58%
✗ Brewers 67%
ctx ✓ Giants 63%
ctx ✓ Dodgers 63%
ctx ✗ Twins 60%
ctx ✓ Rays 59%
ctx ✓ Tigers 59%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✗ ★ Jung Hoo Lee 79% -277
✓ ★ Nick Gonzales 75% -273
✓ ★ Shea Langeliers 73% -244
✓ ★ Junior Caminero 72% -233
✓ ★ Chandler Simpson 71% -253
✓ ★ Bryce Eldridge 71% -191
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ ATH@MIN YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ ATL@BAL NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT YRFI 50%
ctx ✗ CIN@STL YRFI 55%
ctx ✓ CLE@TB NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ COL@MIL YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ KC@DET YRFI 62%
ctx ✓ LAA@SF YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ LAD@NYM NRFI 50%
ctx V NYY@PHI NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ SD@MIA YRFI 57%
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS NRFI 53%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@WSH OVER 5.5 -125
ctx ✓ ATH@MIN UNDER 5.5 -130
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ CIN@STL UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ CLE@TB UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✓ COL@MIL OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ HOU@CHW OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ KC@DET UNDER 3.5 -115
ctx ✓ LAA@SF OVER 4.5 -108
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM OVER 4.5 -125
ctx V NYY@PHI UNDER 3.5 -105
ctx ✓ SD@MIA UNDER 5.5 -118
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 3.5 -115
ctx ✓ TOR@BOS UNDER 4.5 -102
Game O/U
ctx ✗ COL@MIL OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ CHC@PIT OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ KC@DET OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ ARI@WSH UNDER 9.5
ctx V NYY@PHI OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ CLE@TB UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ LAD@NYM OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ HOU@CHW UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ SEA@TEX UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ ATH@MIN OVER 9.5
ctx ✗ CIN@STL OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ LAA@SF OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ ATL@BAL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ SD@MIA UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Tomoyuki Sugano UNDER 3.5 -150
ctx ✗ Shane Drohan UNDER 5.5 -106
ctx ✓ Matthew Boyd UNDER 5.5 -127
ctx ✓ Jared Jones UNDER 5.5 -118
ctx ✗ Tarik Skubal UNDER 8.5 -140
ctx ✓ Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 4.5 -145
ctx V Will Warren OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Jesús Luzardo UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ Grant Holmes UNDER 5.5 -155
ctx ✓ Joey Cantillo UNDER 5.5 -200
ctx ✗ Shane McClanahan OVER 4.5 -162
ctx ✓ Roki Sasaki OVER 4.5 -143
ctx ✓ Sean Manaea UNDER 5.5 -172
ctx ✓ Germán Márquez OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5 +110
ctx ✓ Spencer Arrighetti UNDER 5.5 -149
ctx ✗ Davis Martin OVER 4.5 +119
ctx ✗ Bryce Miller OVER 5.5 -141
ctx ✗ MacKenzie Gore OVER 5.5 -173
ctx ✗ Jacob Lopez OVER 4.5 +143
ctx ✗ Zebby Matthews OVER 4.5 +110
ctx ✓ Rhett Lowder OVER 3.5 +116
ctx ✗ Dustin May UNDER 5.5 +100
ctx ✓ Grayson Rodriguez UNDER 4.5 -168
ctx ✗ Logan Webb OVER 5.5 -162
ctx ✗ Trevor Rogers UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx ✓ Ryan Gusto OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Cam Schlittler UNDER 7.5 -152
H+R+RBI
V Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 -159
✗ Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 -156
✓ Jared Young OVER 0.5 -159
ctx ✓ Jared Triolo OVER 0.5 -162
ctx ✓ Edwin Arroyo OVER 0.5 -178
ctx ✓ Nicky Lopez OVER 0.5 -148
Run Line
ctx ✗ COL@MIL HOME -1.5
ctx ✓ CHC@PIT AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ KC@DET AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ARI@WSH AWAY 1.5
ctx V NYY@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATL@BAL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CLE@TB AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAD@NYM AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@MIA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TOR@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ HOU@CHW AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SEA@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATH@MIN AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CIN@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAA@SF AWAY 1.5
Thu Jul 23 Winners 1/1 +4 ctx Hitters 2/5-42.6% -2.1u HRR 1/3-44.6% -1.3u +3 ctx Day -43.4% -3.5u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✓ Braves 66%
ctx ✓ Tigers 59%
ctx ✗ Rays 58%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 57%
ctx ✗ Guardians 55%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Drake Baldwin 74% -273
✗ ★ Chandler Simpson 74% -242
✓ ★ Fernando Tatis Jr. 70% -199
✗ ★ Chase DeLauter 69% -222
V ★ Ketel Marte 69% -248
✗ ★ Brooks Lee 64% -158
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✓ ARI@STL YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ KC@DET NRFI 54%
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ SD@ATL YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ TB@TOR YRFI 53%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ARI@STL UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ KC@DET UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ SD@ATL UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✓ TB@TOR UNDER 4.5 -115
Game O/U
ctx ✗ SD@ATL UNDER 8
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ ARI@STL UNDER 8
ctx ✓ KC@DET UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Griffin Canning OVER 4.5 +122
ctx ✓ Chris Sale OVER 6.5 -152
ctx ✗ Taj Bradley OVER 6.5 +132
ctx ✗ Gavin Williams UNDER 6.5 +104
ctx ✗ Ian Seymour UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ Shane Bieber UNDER 4.5 -155
ctx ✓ Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 3.5 -140
ctx ✓ Michael McGreevy UNDER 3.5 -155
ctx ✓ Randy Dobnak UNDER 3.5 -165
ctx ✓ Troy Melton UNDER 5.5 -115
H+R+RBI
✗ Ryan Waldschmidt OVER 0.5 -164
✓ Patrick Bailey OVER 0.5 -151
✗ Junior Caminero OVER 1.5 -154
ctx ✓ Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 -162
ctx ✓ Dillon Dingler OVER 1.5 -155
ctx ✓ Alec Burleson OVER 1.5 -155
Run Line
ctx ✓ SD@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TB@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ARI@STL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ KC@DET AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx P SD@ATL AWAY 1
ctx P MIN@CLE AWAY -2
ctx ✗ TB@TOR AWAY 1
ctx ✓ ARI@STL AWAY 1
ctx P KC@DET AWAY 1
Wed Jul 22 Winners 1/1 +16 ctx Hitters 5/6+15.9% +0.8u K 1/3 +29 ctx HRR 2/3+9.0% +0.3u +3 ctx Day +13.3% +1.1u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ D-backs 56%
ctx ✗ Red Sox (G2) 53%
ctx ✗ Cubs 55%
ctx ✗ Guardians 55%
ctx ✓ Astros 52%
ctx ✓ Royals 51%
ctx ✓ Dodgers 56%
ctx ✓ Cardinals 56%
ctx ✓ Rays 56%
ctx ✗ Rangers 52%
ctx ✓ Nationals 55%
✓ Brewers 64%
ctx ✗ Mariners 59%
ctx ✗ Yankees (G1) 59%
ctx ✓ Red Sox (G1) 59%
ctx ✓ Yankees (G2) 58%
ctx ✓ Braves 58%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Yordan Alvarez 76% -263
✗ ★ Wyatt Langford 74% -241
✓ ★ Tommy Edman 73% -173
✓ ★ Ben Rice (G1) 72% -276
✓ ★ T.J. Rumfield 72%
✓ ★ Josh Naylor 72% -210
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS (G2) YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS (G1) YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX YRFI 54%
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ DET@CHC NRFI 53%
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI YRFI 53%
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY (G1) YRFI 50%
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY (G2) YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ SD@ATL NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ SF@KC YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ STL@LAA YRFI 55%
ctx ✗ TB@TOR NRFI 53%
ctx ✗ WSH@COL YRFI 56%
F5 O/U
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI OVER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS (G2) UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS (G1) UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✓ DET@CHC OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI OVER 5.5 -105
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU UNDER 4.5 -132
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ NYM@MIL UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY (G2) OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY (G1) UNDER 4.5 -102
ctx ✗ SD@ATL OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ SF@KC UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ STL@LAA UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ TB@TOR UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx ✗ WSH@COL OVER 5.5 -110
Game O/U
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY (G1) UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS (G1) UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ WSH@COL UNDER 11.5
ctx P CIN@SEA UNDER 8
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI UNDER 9
ctx ✓ STL@LAA UNDER 9
ctx ✗ LAD@PHI UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE UNDER 8
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY (G2) UNDER 9.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR UNDER 8
ctx ✗ SD@ATL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU UNDER 8
ctx ✓ DET@CHC UNDER 8
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS (G2) UNDER 9
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✗ Mitch Keller (G1) UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Gerrit Cole (G1) UNDER 6.5
ctx ✓ Dean Kremer (G1) OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Jake Bennett (G1) UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Christian Scott UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Logan Henderson OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Landen Roupp OVER 5.5
ctx ✗ Seth Lugo UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Cade Cavalli OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Gabriel Hughes OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Brady Singer UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Emerson Hancock UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Gage Jump OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Merrill Kelly OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Hunter Dobbins UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Reid Detmers UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Eric Lauer OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Aaron Nola UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Bailey Ober UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Slade Cecconi OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Bubba Chandler (G2) UNDER 4.5
✓ Max Fried (G2) OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Griffin Jax UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Kyle Bradish (G2) UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Michael King OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Martín Pérez OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Anthony Kay UNDER 4.5
✗ Cal Quantrill OVER 2.5
ctx ✗ Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Peter Lambert OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Keider Montero OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Colin Rea UNDER 4.5
H+R+RBI
✗ Cooper Pratt OVER 0.5 -165
✓ Joey Ortiz OVER 0.5 -160
✓ Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 -155
ctx ✓ Edwin Arroyo OVER 0.5 -176
ctx ✓ Petey Halpin OVER 0.5 -141
ctx ✗ Jared Young OVER 0.5 -116
Run Line
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ WSH@COL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ STL@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ DET@CHC AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY (G1) AWAY 1
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS (G1) HOME -2.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ SF@KC AWAY -3
ctx ✗ WSH@COL HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA HOME -2.5
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI AWAY -3
ctx ✓ STL@LAA AWAY 1
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI AWAY -2
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE AWAY -3
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY (G2) AWAY 1
ctx ✗ TB@TOR HOME 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@ATL HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX HOME 1.5
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU HOME -2.5
ctx ✓ DET@CHC AWAY -2
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS (G2) HOME 1.5
Tue Jul 21 Winners 0/1 +14 ctx Hitters 5/6+19.7% +1.2u K 1/3 +26 ctx HRR 2/2· 2 priced +3 ctx Day +30.5% +2.4u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx · Red Sox (G1) 56%
ctx ✓ Cubs 53%
ctx ✓ Reds 50%
ctx ✓ Guardians 57%
ctx ✓ Royals 52%
ctx ✓ Dodgers 51%
ctx ✗ Marlins 57%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 51%
ctx ✓ Rangers 53%
✗ Brewers 63%
ctx ✗ Braves 63%
ctx ✓ D-backs 63%
ctx ✓ Rays 59%
ctx ✗ Nationals 59%
ctx · Yankees (G2) 57%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Yordan Alvarez 75% -274
✓ ★ Elly De La Cruz 74% -214
✗ ★ Heliot Ramos 73% -268
✓ ★ Dillon Dingler 73% -231
✓ ★ Nolan Schanuel 73% -190
✓ ★ Junior Caminero 72% -255
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI YRFI 53%
ctx · BAL@BOS (G1) NRFI 52%
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX YRFI 54%
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ DET@CHC YRFI 54%
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE NRFI 50%
ctx ✗ NYM@MIL YRFI 58%
ctx · PIT@NYY (G2) YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SD@ATL YRFI 56%
ctx ✗ SF@KC YRFI 57%
ctx ✗ STL@LAA NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ TB@TOR YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ WSH@COL YRFI 52%
F5 O/U
ctx · BAL@BOS (G1) UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA UNDER 3.5 +114
ctx ✗ DET@CHC UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx · PIT@NYY (G2) OVER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ SD@ATL OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ SF@KC UNDER 5.5 -105
ctx ✗ STL@LAA UNDER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ TB@TOR OVER 3.5 -105
ctx ✓ WSH@COL OVER 7.5 -110
Game O/U
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE UNDER 8.5
ctx · PIT@NYY (G2) UNDER 9.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR OVER 7.5
ctx · BAL@BOS (G1) UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ SD@ATL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC UNDER 9.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ DET@CHC OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU OVER 8.5
ctx ✗ WSH@COL UNDER 12.5
ctx ✓ STL@LAA UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI OVER 9.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✗ Justin Wrobleski UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Zack Wheeler UNDER 6.5
ctx ✓ Kendry Rojas UNDER 3.5
ctx ✓ Parker Messick OVER 5.5
ctx · Bubba Chandler (G2) UNDER 4.5
ctx · Will Warren (G2) UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Kevin Gausman UNDER 5.5
ctx · Kyle Bradish (G1) UNDER 5.5
ctx · Ranger Suárez (G1) OVER 5.5
✗ Walker Buehler OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Reynaldo López UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Zach Thornton OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Brandon Sproat OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Tyler Mahle OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Luinder Avila OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Noah Schultz UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Kumar Rocker OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Framber Valdez OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ David Peterson UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Tyler Phillips UNDER 3.5
ctx ✓ Tatsuya Imai OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Miles Mikolas OVER 2.5
ctx ✓ Michael Lorenzen OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Matthew Liberatore UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Walbert Urena OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Chase Burns UNDER 7.5
✓ Luis Castillo UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Jack Perkins OVER 4.5
H+R+RBI
✓ Taylor Walls OVER 0.5 -146
✓ Nicky Lopez OVER 0.5 -175
· Ben Rice (G2) OVER 1.5 -151
ctx ✓ Victor Robles OVER 0.5 -168
ctx ✓ Junior Caminero OVER 1.5 -138
ctx ✗ Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 -161
Run Line
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE AWAY 1.5
ctx · PIT@NYY (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx · BAL@BOS (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ DET@CHC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ WSH@COL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ STL@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI AWAY 1
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE AWAY 1
ctx · PIT@NYY (G2) AWAY 1
ctx ✓ TB@TOR AWAY -2
ctx · BAL@BOS (G1) HOME -2.5
ctx ✗ SD@ATL HOME 1.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL AWAY 1
ctx ✓ SF@KC HOME 4.5
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX AWAY 1
ctx ✗ DET@CHC AWAY -3
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU AWAY 1
ctx ✗ WSH@COL AWAY -2
ctx ✓ STL@LAA HOME -1.5
ctx P CIN@SEA AWAY -2
ctx P ATH@ARI AWAY 1
Mon Jul 20 Winners 1/1 +14 ctx Hitters 4/6-13.6% -0.7u K 1/3 +25 ctx HRR 2/2· 2 priced +3 ctx Day +7.1% +0.5u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ Red Sox 55%
ctx ✓ Guardians 53%
ctx ✓ Royals 53%
ctx ✗ Marlins 51%
ctx ✓ Yankees 53%
ctx ✓ Phillies 52%
ctx ✓ Mariners 56%
ctx ✓ Rays 55%
ctx ✗ Rangers 52%
✓ Brewers 68%
ctx ✓ Nationals 63%
ctx ✗ D-backs 62%
ctx ✓ Braves 60%
ctx ✗ Cubs 58%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 57%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 77%
✗ ★ Elly De La Cruz 76% -264
✓ ★ Nick Gonzales 75% -247
✓ ★ Wyatt Langford 74% -220
✗ ★ Shohei Ohtani 73% -213
✓ ★ Tommy Edman 71% -218
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI YRFI 55%
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX YRFI 55%
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ DET@CHC NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ LAD@PHI YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ MIA@HOU NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ NYM@MIL NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ SD@ATL NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ SF@KC NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ STL@LAA NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ TB@TOR NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ WSH@COL NRFI 51%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✗ CHW@TEX UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✗ DET@CHC UNDER 6.5 -105
ctx ✓ LAD@PHI OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✗ NYM@MIL UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ SD@ATL OVER 5.5 -105
ctx ✗ SF@KC OVER 5.5 -118
ctx ✓ STL@LAA UNDER 4.5 +108
ctx ✗ TB@TOR UNDER 3.5 -130
ctx ✗ WSH@COL OVER 6.5 -110
Game O/U
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ PIT@NYY OVER 8
ctx ✗ TB@TOR UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ LAD@PHI UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ BAL@BOS UNDER 9
ctx ✓ SD@ATL UNDER 9
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC UNDER 10
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ DET@CHC UNDER 11.5
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU UNDER 9
ctx ✓ WSH@COL UNDER 11.5
ctx ✓ CIN@SEA OVER 7.5
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI UNDER 9
ctx ✓ STL@LAA UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Joe Ryan OVER 6.5
ctx ✗ Tanner Bibee UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Braxton Ashcraft OVER 6.5
ctx ✓ Ryan Weathers UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Nick Martinez OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Dylan Cease UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ Emmet Sheehan OVER 5.5
ctx ✗ Cristopher Sánchez UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Shane Baz UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Payton Tolle UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ JP Sears OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Bryce Elder OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 9.5
✗ Trevor McDonald OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Michael Wacha OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Erick Fedde UNDER 3.5
ctx ✗ Jacob deGrom OVER 6.5
ctx ✗ Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5
✓ Jameson Taillon OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Janson Junk OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Andrew Alvarez OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Kyle Freeland UNDER 4.5
✗ Andrew Abbott UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ George Kirby UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Jeffrey Springs OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Kyle Leahy OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ José Soriano OVER 4.5
H+R+RBI
✓ Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 -169
V Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 -141
✓ Braden Montgomery OVER 0.5 -171
ctx ✓ Evan Carter OVER 0.5 -163
ctx ✗ Alec Burleson OVER 1.5 -152
ctx ✓ Petey Halpin OVER 0.5 -139
Run Line
ctx ✗ MIN@CLE AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TB@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ LAD@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ NYM@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SF@KC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ DET@CHC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ WSH@COL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ ATH@ARI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ STL@LAA AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx ✓ MIN@CLE HOME -1.5
ctx ✗ PIT@NYY AWAY -3
ctx ✓ TB@TOR AWAY 1
ctx ✗ LAD@PHI AWAY 1
ctx P BAL@BOS AWAY 1
ctx ✗ SD@ATL HOME -2.5
ctx ✓ NYM@MIL HOME -3.5
ctx P SF@KC AWAY 1
ctx ✓ CHW@TEX AWAY 1
ctx ✓ DET@CHC AWAY 1
ctx ✗ MIA@HOU AWAY 1
ctx ✓ WSH@COL AWAY -3
ctx ✗ CIN@SEA AWAY 1
ctx ✗ ATH@ARI HOME -1.5
ctx P STL@LAA AWAY 1
Sun Jul 19 Winners 0/1 +15 ctx Hitters 2/4-0.6% -0.0u K 0/3 +26 ctx HRR 3/3+59.2% +1.8u +3 ctx Day +29.3% +1.8u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ D-backs 56%
ctx ✓ White Sox 53%
ctx ✗ Guardians 53%
ctx ✗ Rockies 51%
ctx ✗ Astros 51%
ctx ✗ Dodgers (G2) 54%
ctx ✓ Dodgers (G1) 51%
ctx ✓ Brewers 56%
ctx ✓ Padres 54%
ctx ✗ Rays 52%
✗ Tigers 62%
ctx ✓ Nationals 62%
ctx ✗ Phillies 60%
ctx ✓ Cubs 58%
ctx ✓ Braves 58%
ctx ✓ Mariners 57%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Luis Arraez 75% -244
✗ ★ James Wood 74% -259
V ★ Jeremy Peña 72% -275
✓ ★ Seiya Suzuki 71% -175
✗ ★ T.J. Rumfield 71%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✗ BAL@HOU YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CHW@TOR YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ CIN@COL YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ DET@LAA YRFI 55%
ctx ✗ LAD@NYY (G2) NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ LAD@NYY (G1) YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ MIN@CHC YRFI 55%
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ PIT@CLE YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ SD@KC YRFI 53%
ctx ✗ SF@SEA NRFI 51%
ctx ✗ STL@ARI YRFI 54%
ctx ✓ TB@BOS NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ TEX@ATL YRFI 50%
ctx ✓ WSH@ATH NRFI 51%
F5 O/U
ctx ✗ BAL@HOU UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR UNDER 4.5 -130
ctx ✓ CIN@COL OVER 5.5 -125
ctx ✗ DET@LAA OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ LAD@NYY (G2) UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx ✓ LAD@NYY (G1) UNDER 4.5 +100
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL OVER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC UNDER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE UNDER 3.5 -105
ctx ✗ SD@KC UNDER 5.5 -115
ctx ✗ SF@SEA UNDER 3.5 -118
ctx ✓ STL@ARI OVER 4.5 -125
ctx ✗ TB@BOS UNDER 4.5 -115
ctx ✗ TEX@ATL UNDER 4.5 -102
ctx ✓ WSH@ATH OVER 5.5 -130
Game O/U
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR UNDER 8
ctx ✗ LAD@NYY (G1) UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ NYM@PHI UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ TB@BOS UNDER 8
ctx ✗ TEX@ATL UNDER 8.5
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE OVER 7
ctx ✓ MIA@MIL UNDER 8
ctx ✗ SD@KC UNDER 10
ctx ✗ BAL@HOU OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ MIN@CHC OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ CIN@COL UNDER 11
ctx ✓ WSH@ATH UNDER 10.5
ctx ✓ DET@LAA UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ SF@SEA UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ STL@ARI UNDER 9
ctx ✓ LAD@NYY (G2) UNDER 9
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✓ Sean Burke UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5
ctx ✗ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (G1) UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Cam Schlittler (G1) UNDER 6.5
ctx ✓ Nolan McLean OVER 6.5
ctx ✓ Alan Rangel UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ Shane McClanahan UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Sonny Gray UNDER 4.5
✗ Nathan Eovaldi OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Grant Holmes UNDER 4.5
✗ Paul Skenes UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ Joey Cantillo UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Eury Pérez UNDER 6.5
ctx ✓ Robert Gasser OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Germán Márquez OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Noah Cameron OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Brandon Young OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Hunter Brown UNDER 7.5
ctx ✗ Zebby Matthews OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Shota Imanaga UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Ryan Feltner OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Foster Griffin OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Jacob Lopez OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Casey Mize UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Ryan Johnson UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Robbie Ray UNDER 5.5
✗ Logan Gilbert UNDER 6.5
ctx ✗ Andre Pallante OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 3.5
H+R+RBI
✓ Tommy Edman (G1) OVER 0.5 -173
✓ Luke Keaschall OVER 0.5 -169
✓ Dylan Beavers OVER 0.5 -165
ctx ✗ Ryan McMahon (G1) OVER 0.5 -110
ctx ✓ Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 -136
ctx ✓ Jordan Walker OVER 1.5 -156
Run Line
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAD@NYY (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ NYM@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TB@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ TEX@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SD@KC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CIN@COL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ WSH@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ DET@LAA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ SF@SEA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ STL@ARI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ LAD@NYY (G2) AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx P CHW@TOR AWAY -3
ctx ✗ LAD@NYY (G1) HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI HOME -1.5
ctx ✗ TB@BOS AWAY 1
ctx ✓ TEX@ATL HOME 1.5
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE AWAY -3
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL AWAY -2
ctx ✓ SD@KC AWAY 1
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU AWAY -2
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC AWAY -2
ctx ✗ CIN@COL HOME 1.5
ctx P WSH@ATH AWAY -3
ctx ✗ DET@LAA AWAY -3
ctx ✗ SF@SEA AWAY 1
ctx ✓ STL@ARI HOME 2.5
ctx P LAD@NYY (G2) AWAY 1
Sat Jul 18 Winners 1/1 +14 ctx Hitters 5/6+15.9% +0.8u K 2/3 +22 ctx HRR 1/3-46.5% -1.4u +3 ctx Day -7.5% -0.6u
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
ctx ✓ Cubs 54%
ctx ✗ Reds 53%
ctx ✗ Guardians (G1) 54%
ctx ✗ Astros 52%
ctx ✓ Royals 52%
ctx ✓ Mariners 54%
ctx ✗ Cardinals 51%
ctx ✗ Rays 52%
ctx ✗ Nationals 50%
✓ Phillies 63%
ctx ✓ Tigers 62%
ctx ✗ Braves 59%
ctx ✗ White Sox 59%
ctx ✓ Brewers 57%
ctx ✓ Guardians (G2) 54%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ T.J. Rumfield 72%
✓ ★ Luis Arraez 77% -255
✓ ★ Yordan Alvarez 75% -237
✓ ★ Chase Meidroth 73% -176
✓ ★ Jordan Walker 73% -242
✗ ★ Xavier Edwards 72% -206
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU NRFI 52%
ctx ✗ CHW@TOR YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ CIN@COL YRFI 55%
ctx ✗ DET@LAA NRFI 54%
ctx ✓ MIA@MIL NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ MIN@CHC YRFI 52%
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G1) NRFI 51%
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G2) NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ SD@KC YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ SF@SEA YRFI 51%
ctx ✗ STL@ARI YRFI 52%
ctx ✓ TB@BOS NRFI 50%
ctx ✓ TEX@ATL YRFI 51%
ctx ✓ WSH@ATH YRFI 52%
F5 O/U
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR UNDER 4.5 -105
ctx ✓ CIN@COL OVER 6.5 -105
ctx ✗ DET@LAA UNDER 4.5 -110
ctx ✓ MIA@MIL OVER 4.5 -130
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC UNDER 4.5 -113
ctx ✓ NYM@PHI OVER 4.5 -118
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G1) UNDER 4.5 -118
ctx ✗ SD@KC OVER 6.5 -102
ctx ✓ SF@SEA UNDER 3.5 -125
ctx ✓ STL@ARI OVER 4.5 -110
ctx ✗ TB@BOS UNDER 5.5 -130
ctx ✗ WSH@ATH OVER 6.5 +102
Game O/U
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G1) OVER 7.5
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC OVER 8.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ CIN@COL UNDER 12.5
ctx ✓ NYM@PHI UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL UNDER 8
ctx ✓ SD@KC UNDER 11
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU UNDER 9
ctx ✗ TB@BOS UNDER 9.5
ctx ✗ TEX@ATL UNDER 9
ctx ✓ STL@ARI UNDER 9
ctx P SF@SEA OVER 7
ctx ✗ WSH@ATH UNDER 11.5
ctx ✓ DET@LAA UNDER 8
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G2) UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
ctx ✗ Jared Jones (G1) UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Gavin Williams (G1) UNDER 7.5
ctx ✓ Taj Bradley OVER 5.5
ctx ✗ Matthew Boyd OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Davis Martin OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Shane Bieber OVER 4.5
ctx ✗ Rhett Lowder OVER 3.5
✗ Sean Manaea UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Jesús Luzardo OVER 6.5
ctx ✗ Max Meyer OVER 5.5
ctx ✓ Shane Drohan OVER 4.5
ctx ✓ Griffin Canning OVER 3.5
ctx ✗ Trevor Rogers UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Spencer Arrighetti UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Ian Seymour UNDER 4.5
ctx ✓ MacKenzie Gore OVER 5.5
✓ Dustin May OVER 3.5
ctx ✓ Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 3.5
ctx ✓ Logan Webb UNDER 5.5
ctx ✗ Bryan Woo UNDER 5.5
ctx ✓ Zack Littell OVER 2.5
ctx ✗ J.T. Ginn UNDER 4.5
ctx ✗ Tarik Skubal UNDER 8.5
ctx ✗ Grayson Rodriguez OVER 4.5
✓ Tomoyuki Sugano OVER 2.5
H+R+RBI
✗ Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 -143
✗ Gabriel Arias (G1) OVER 0.5 -161
ctx ✓ Jordan Walker OVER 1.5 -129
✓ Evan Carter OVER 0.5 -165
ctx ✓ Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 -138
ctx ✓ JJ Wetherholt OVER 1.5 -141
Run Line
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G1) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ CHW@TOR AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ CIN@COL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ SD@KC AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ BAL@HOU AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TB@BOS AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ TEX@ATL AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ STL@ARI AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ PIT@CLE (G2) AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ SF@SEA AWAY 1.5
ctx ✗ WSH@ATH AWAY 1.5
ctx ✓ DET@LAA AWAY 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
ctx ✓ PIT@CLE (G1) AWAY -2
ctx ✗ MIN@CHC AWAY 1
ctx P CHW@TOR AWAY 1
ctx ✗ CIN@COL AWAY 1
ctx ✗ NYM@PHI AWAY 1
ctx ✗ MIA@MIL HOME -2.5
ctx ✓ SD@KC HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ BAL@HOU AWAY -3
ctx ✓ TB@BOS HOME 2.5
ctx ✓ TEX@ATL HOME 1.5
ctx ✓ STL@ARI HOME 1.5
ctx ✗ SF@SEA AWAY -2
ctx ✗ WSH@ATH AWAY 1
ctx ✓ DET@LAA AWAY -4
ctx ✗ PIT@CLE (G2) AWAY 1
Fri Jul 17 Winners 2/5 Hitters 6/9 NRFI 1/1 F5 1/1 K 16/26 HRR 1/3 Spreads 0/1 Total 0/1 Alt spread 0/1
⚠ Odds-feed outage (storm, ~1:20 PM ET): market-derived leans — spreads, totals, NRFI, F5 — that locked afterward did so on stale prices, so they're voided (no action, winners and losers alike). Best Plays (Hitters + Winners) and the model props locked before the outage or don't depend on the odds, so they stand.
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✓ Atlanta Braves 65%
✗ Chicago Cubs 57%
✓ Milwaukee Brewers 59%
✗ Seattle Mariners 63%
✗ Toronto Blue Jays 55%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Fernando Tatis Jr. 76%
✗ ★ Hunter Goodman 71%
✗ ★ Josh Jung 72%
✓ ★ Jung Hoo Lee 70%
✓ ★ Shea Langeliers 72%
✓ ★ Tommy Edman 70%
✓ ★ Xavier Edwards 69%
✗ ★ Yandy Díaz (G1) 74%
✓ ★ Yordan Alvarez 73%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
V Cardinals @ D-backs YRFI 51%
V Dodgers @ Yankees NRFI 51%
V Giants @ Mariners NRFI 52%
V Marlins @ Brewers NRFI 51%
V Nationals @ Athletics NRFI 51%
V Orioles @ Astros YRFI 52%
V Padres @ Royals YRFI 52%
V Pirates @ Guardians (G1) NRFI 50%
V Rangers @ Braves YRFI 51%
✓ Rays @ Red Sox (G1) NRFI 53%
V Rays @ Red Sox (G2) NRFI 55%
V Reds @ Rockies YRFI 60%
V Tigers @ Angels NRFI 50%
V Twins @ Cubs NRFI 51%
V White Sox @ Blue Jays NRFI 52%
F5 O/U
V Padres @ Royals UNDER 5.5
V Rangers @ Braves UNDER 4.5
✓ Rays @ Red Sox (G1) UNDER 4.5
V Reds @ Rockies OVER 6.5
V Tigers @ Angels UNDER 4.5
V Twins @ Cubs UNDER 5.5
Game O/U
✗ Rays @ Red Sox (G1) UNDER 8.5
V Dodgers @ Yankees UNDER 9.5
V Pirates @ Guardians (G1) OVER 7.5
V White Sox @ Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
V Rangers @ Braves UNDER 8.5
V Twins @ Cubs UNDER 10.5
V Marlins @ Brewers UNDER 8.5
V Padres @ Royals UNDER 10.5
V Orioles @ Astros OVER 8.5
V Reds @ Rockies UNDER 12.5
V Tigers @ Angels UNDER 8.5
V Nationals @ Athletics UNDER 10.5
V Giants @ Mariners UNDER 7.5
V Cardinals @ D-backs UNDER 9
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✓ Griffin Jax (G1) OVER 4.5
✓ Jake Bennett (G1) UNDER 4.5
✓ Roki Sasaki OVER 4.5
✗ Gerrit Cole UNDER 5.5
V Jared Jones (G1) UNDER 5.5
V Gavin Williams (G1) OVER 6.5
✓ Anthony Kay OVER 3.5
✗ Spencer Miles UNDER 3.5
✓ Cal Quantrill UNDER 3.5
✓ Chris Sale UNDER 7.5
✗ Bailey Ober UNDER 3.5
✓ Colin Rea OVER 3.5
✓ Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5
✗ Logan Henderson OVER 5.5
✗ Michael King OVER 4.5
✗ Seth Lugo OVER 3.5
✓ Dean Kremer OVER 4.5
✓ Peter Lambert OVER 5.5
✓ Brady Singer OVER 4.5
✓ Troy Melton OVER 5.5
✗ Reid Detmers UNDER 6.5
✓ Cade Cavalli OVER 4.5
✓ Gage Jump OVER 4.5
✗ Merrill Kelly OVER 3.5
✗ Landen Roupp OVER 5.5
✓ Bryce Miller OVER 5.5
✗ Michael McGreevy UNDER 3.5
✓ Mason Englert (G2) UNDER 4.5
H+R+RBI
✗ Jordan Walker OVER 1.5
✓ CJ Abrams OVER 1.5
✗ Brice Turang OVER 1.5
Run Line
✗ Rays @ Red Sox (G1) AWAY +1.5 1.5
V White Sox @ Blue Jays HOME -1.5 -1.5
V Rangers @ Braves AWAY +1.5 1.5
V Marlins @ Brewers HOME -1.5 -1.5
V Reds @ Rockies AWAY +1.5 1.5
V Giants @ Mariners AWAY +1.5 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
✗ Rays @ Red Sox (G1) AWAY +1 1
V White Sox @ Blue Jays HOME +1.5 1.5
V Dodgers @ Yankees HOME -2.5 -2.5
V Pirates @ Guardians (G1) AWAY -2 -2
V Twins @ Cubs AWAY +1 1
V Rangers @ Braves AWAY +1 1
V Marlins @ Brewers HOME -2.5 -2.5
V Giants @ Mariners HOME -2.5 -2.5
V Tigers @ Angels AWAY -2 -2
V Padres @ Royals AWAY +1 1
V Orioles @ Astros HOME -2.5 -2.5
V Reds @ Rockies HOME +1.5 1.5
V Nationals @ Athletics HOME +4.5 4.5
V Cardinals @ D-backs AWAY -2 -2
Thu Jul 16 Winners 0/1 Hitters 1/1 NRFI 0/1 F5 1/1 K 0/2 HRR 3/14 Spreads 1/1 Total 1/1 Alt spread 1/1
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✗ Philadelphia Phillies 54%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Carson Benge 72%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
✗ Mets @ Phillies YRFI 54%
F5 O/U
✓ Mets @ Phillies UNDER 5.5
Game O/U
✓ Mets @ Phillies UNDER 9.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✗ Christian Scott UNDER 6.5
✗ Aaron Nola UNDER 5.5
H+R+RBI
✗ Bo Bichette OVER 1.5
✗ Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5
✗ Bryce Harper OVER 1.5
✗ Carson Benge OVER 1.5
✗ Francisco Lindor OVER 1.5
✗ Brandon Marsh OVER 1.5
✓ Trea Turner OVER 1.5
✓ A.J. Ewing OVER 1.5
✓ Francisco Alvarez OVER 1.5
✗ Bryson Stott OVER 1.5
✗ J.T. Realmuto OVER 1.5
✗ Jared Young OVER 1.5
✗ Justin Crawford OVER 1.5
✗ Juan Soto OVER 2.5
Run Line
✓ Mets @ Phillies AWAY +1.5 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
✓ Mets @ Phillies AWAY +1 1
Sun Jul 12 Winners 5/7 Hitters 4/5 NRFI 9/15 F5 12/14 K 9/27 HRR 4/10 Spreads 5/8 Total 10/15 Alt spread 4/14
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✓ Baltimore Orioles 58%
✓ Chicago White Sox 58%
✗ Los Angeles Dodgers 66%
✓ Minnesota Twins 55%
✓ San Francisco Giants 57%
✗ Tampa Bay Rays 56%
✓ Texas Rangers 56%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Ben Rice 72%
✓ ★ Elly De La Cruz 72%
✓ ★ Ernie Clement 75%
✓ ★ Josh Jung 76%
✗ ★ Luis Arraez 85%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
✓ Angels @ Twins NRFI 50%
✗ Astros @ Rangers YRFI 52%
✓ Athletics @ White Sox YRFI 51%
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres NRFI 50%
✗ Braves @ Cardinals NRFI 53%
✓ Brewers @ Pirates NRFI 55%
✓ Cubs @ Reds YRFI 51%
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers YRFI 55%
✗ Guardians @ Marlins NRFI 52%
✓ Mariners @ Rays NRFI 53%
✓ Phillies @ Tigers NRFI 59%
✗ Red Sox @ Mets NRFI 52%
✓ Rockies @ Giants YRFI 51%
✗ Royals @ Orioles YRFI 53%
✓ Yankees @ Nationals YRFI 52%
F5 O/U
✓ Angels @ Twins UNDER 5.0
P Astros @ Rangers UNDER 5.0
✓ Athletics @ White Sox OVER 4.75
✓ Blue Jays @ Padres OVER 4.5
✓ Braves @ Cardinals UNDER 4.5
✓ Brewers @ Pirates OVER 4.0
✓ Cubs @ Reds OVER 4.5
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers UNDER 5.5
✓ Guardians @ Marlins UNDER 4.5
✓ Mariners @ Rays OVER 4.0
✓ Phillies @ Tigers UNDER 3.5
✗ Red Sox @ Mets OVER 4.5
✗ Rockies @ Giants OVER 5.0
✓ Royals @ Orioles UNDER 5.5
✓ Yankees @ Nationals UNDER 5.0
Game O/U
✓ Brewers @ Pirates OVER 8.5
✓ Yankees @ Nationals UNDER 9.5
✓ Royals @ Orioles OVER 9.5
✗ Mariners @ Rays UNDER 8
✓ Guardians @ Marlins UNDER 8
✗ Cubs @ Reds UNDER 9
✓ Angels @ Twins UNDER 9
✓ Red Sox @ Mets UNDER 8
✓ Phillies @ Tigers UNDER 7
✓ Athletics @ White Sox OVER 8.5
✗ Braves @ Cardinals OVER 7.5
✓ Astros @ Rangers OVER 9
✗ Rockies @ Giants OVER 9
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres UNDER 8.5
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers UNDER 9.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✗ Robert Gasser OVER 4.5
✗ Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5
✗ Will Warren OVER 4.5
✗ Cade Cavalli OVER 5.5
✗ Seth Lugo UNDER 4.5
✗ Shane Baz UNDER 5.5
✓ Emerson Hancock UNDER 4.5
✗ Ian Seymour OVER 5.5
✗ Joey Cantillo UNDER 5.5
✓ Tyler Phillips UNDER 3.5
✓ Matthew Boyd UNDER 5.5
✓ Andrew Abbott UNDER 4.5
✗ José Soriano OVER 5.5
✗ Taj Bradley OVER 6.5
✓ Payton Tolle OVER 5.5
✗ Zack Wheeler UNDER 7.5
✓ Tarik Skubal UNDER 7.5
✗ J.T. Ginn UNDER 4.5
✓ Noah Schultz UNDER 4.5
✗ JR Ritchie OVER 3.5
✗ Dustin May OVER 4.5
✗ MacKenzie Gore OVER 4.5
✗ Michael Lorenzen OVER 3.5
✓ Trevor McDonald UNDER 4.5
✗ Kevin Gausman UNDER 5.5
✓ Germán Márquez OVER 2.5
✗ Emmet Sheehan UNDER 5.5
H+R+RBI
✓ James Wood OVER 1.5
✓ Pete Alonso OVER 1.5
✗ Junior Caminero OVER 1.5
✗ Trent Grisham OVER 1.5
✗ Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5
✗ Zach Neto OVER 1.5
✓ Ben Rice OVER 1.5
✓ Heliot Ramos OVER 1.5
✗ Casey Schmitt OVER 1.5
✗ Rafael Devers OVER 1.5
Run Line
✗ Angels @ Twins AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Royals @ Orioles AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Yankees @ Nationals AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Braves @ Cardinals AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Athletics @ White Sox AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Astros @ Rangers AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Rockies @ Giants HOME -1.5 -1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
✗ Yankees @ Nationals AWAY -3 -3
✗ Mariners @ Rays HOME +1.5 1.5
✗ Brewers @ Pirates AWAY -2 -2
✗ Angels @ Twins AWAY +1 1
✗ Guardians @ Marlins HOME +1.5 1.5
✓ Cubs @ Reds AWAY -3 -3
✗ Royals @ Orioles AWAY +1 1
P Astros @ Rangers AWAY +1 1
✓ Braves @ Cardinals AWAY +1 1
✗ Rockies @ Giants AWAY -3 -3
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres HOME -2.5 -2.5
✗ Red Sox @ Mets AWAY -2 -2
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers AWAY +1 1
✓ Phillies @ Tigers AWAY +1 1
✗ Athletics @ White Sox AWAY +1 1
Sat Jul 11 Winners 3/5 Hitters 8/9 NRFI 7/16 F5 4/15 K 18/31 HRR 7/10 Spreads 8/10 Total 4/15 Alt spread 6/15
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✓ Baltimore Orioles 59%
✗ Los Angeles Dodgers 71%
✗ Miami Marlins 58%
✓ Minnesota Twins 61%
✓ New York Yankees 64%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Chase Meidroth 70%
✓ ★ Freddie Freeman 73%
✓ ★ James Wood 65%
✓ ★ Luis Arraez 85%
✓ ★ Michael Harris II 77%
✓ ★ Pete Alonso 70%
✗ ★ Pete Crow-Armstrong 74%
✓ ★ Xavier Edwards 70%
✓ ★ Yordan Alvarez 74%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
✗ Angels @ Twins YRFI 50%
✗ Astros @ Rangers NRFI 51%
✓ Athletics @ White Sox NRFI 50%
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres NRFI 52%
✗ Braves @ Cardinals NRFI 50%
✓ Brewers @ Pirates (G2) NRFI 51%
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) NRFI 51%
✗ Cubs @ Reds YRFI 53%
✗ D-backs @ Dodgers YRFI 51%
✓ Guardians @ Marlins NRFI 54%
✓ Mariners @ Rays NRFI 54%
✓ Phillies @ Tigers NRFI 56%
✓ Red Sox @ Mets NRFI 51%
✗ Rockies @ Giants YRFI 50%
✓ Royals @ Orioles NRFI 50%
✗ Yankees @ Nationals NRFI 50%
F5 O/U
P Angels @ Twins UNDER 5.0
✓ Astros @ Rangers OVER 4.5
✗ Athletics @ White Sox OVER 4.5
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres UNDER 4.5
✗ Braves @ Cardinals OVER 4.5
✓ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) OVER 4.5
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G2) OVER 4.5
✗ Cubs @ Reds OVER 5.0
✗ D-backs @ Dodgers OVER 4.5
✗ Guardians @ Marlins OVER 4.0
✗ Mariners @ Rays OVER 3.5
✓ Phillies @ Tigers OVER 3.5
✓ Red Sox @ Mets UNDER 4.5
✗ Rockies @ Giants OVER 4.5
✗ Royals @ Orioles OVER 4.5
✗ Yankees @ Nationals OVER 4.5
Game O/U
✓ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) OVER 8.5
✓ Angels @ Twins UNDER 9
P Mariners @ Rays UNDER 7
✗ Rockies @ Giants OVER 8.5
✗ Guardians @ Marlins OVER 7.5
✗ Athletics @ White Sox OVER 8.5
✗ Yankees @ Nationals OVER 8.5
✗ Braves @ Cardinals OVER 8.5
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G2) OVER 8.5
✗ Red Sox @ Mets OVER 7.5
✓ Cubs @ Reds UNDER 9.5
✗ Royals @ Orioles OVER 8.5
✓ Phillies @ Tigers UNDER 8
✗ Astros @ Rangers UNDER 8.5
✗ Blue Jays @ Padres UNDER 8
✗ D-backs @ Dodgers UNDER 8.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✓ Braxton Ashcraft (G1) UNDER 6.5
✗ Brandon Sproat (G1) OVER 4.5
✗ Joe Ryan OVER 6.5
✓ Ryan Johnson UNDER 4.5
✗ Griffin Jax OVER 4.5
✓ Logan Gilbert UNDER 6.5
✗ Tyler Mahle OVER 4.5
✗ Kyle Freeland UNDER 4.5
✓ Eury Pérez OVER 5.5
✓ Tanner Bibee UNDER 4.5
✓ Erick Fedde UNDER 3.5
✓ Gage Jump OVER 4.5
✗ Miles Mikolas OVER 2.5
✓ Cam Schlittler UNDER 6.5
✗ Matthew Liberatore UNDER 4.5
✓ Reynaldo López UNDER 4.5
✗ Bubba Chandler (G2) UNDER 4.5
✗ Shane Drohan (G2) UNDER 4.5
✗ Freddy Peralta UNDER 5.5
✓ Nick Lodolo UNDER 4.5
✓ Javier Assad OVER 3.5
✓ Kyle Bradish UNDER 5.5
✓ Noah Cameron OVER 4.5
✗ Casey Mize OVER 5.5
✓ Cristopher Sánchez OVER 6.5
✗ Kumar Rocker UNDER 4.5
✗ Peter Lambert UNDER 5.5
✓ Walker Buehler UNDER 4.5
✓ Trey Yesavage UNDER 5.5
✓ Yoshinobu Yamamoto UNDER 6.5
✓ Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 4.5
H+R+RBI
✓ Luis Arraez OVER 1.5
✗ Rafael Devers OVER 1.5
✓ Casey Schmitt OVER 1.5
✗ Jung Hoo Lee OVER 1.5
✓ Junior Caminero OVER 1.5
V Ryan Jeffers OVER 1.5
✗ Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5
✓ Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5
✓ Trent Grisham OVER 1.5
✓ James Wood OVER 1.5
✓ Pete Alonso OVER 1.5
Run Line
✓ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Angels @ Twins AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Athletics @ White Sox AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Guardians @ Marlins AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Rockies @ Giants HOME -1.5 -1.5
✓ Red Sox @ Mets AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Cubs @ Reds AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Royals @ Orioles AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Astros @ Rangers AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers AWAY +1.5 1.5
Alt Spread (watch)
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) HOME -2.5 -2.5
✗ Angels @ Twins AWAY +1 1
✓ Mariners @ Rays HOME -2.5 -2.5
✗ Rockies @ Giants AWAY -3 -3
✓ Guardians @ Marlins AWAY +1 1
✗ Athletics @ White Sox HOME -1.5 -1.5
✗ Yankees @ Nationals AWAY -3 -3
✗ Braves @ Cardinals AWAY -2 -2
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G2) AWAY -2 -2
✓ Red Sox @ Mets AWAY +1 1
✓ Cubs @ Reds AWAY +1 1
✗ Royals @ Orioles AWAY +1 1
✗ Phillies @ Tigers HOME +1.5 1.5
✓ Astros @ Rangers AWAY +1 1
P Blue Jays @ Padres AWAY +1 1
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers AWAY +1 1
Fri Jul 10 Winners 3/7 Hitters 5/5 NRFI 8/15 F5 9/14 K 11/26 HRR 7/12 Spreads 4/7
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✗ Atlanta Braves 60%
✓ Baltimore Orioles 59%
✓ Chicago White Sox 60%
✗ Los Angeles Dodgers 66%
✗ Minnesota Twins 59%
✓ New York Yankees 59%
✗ San Francisco Giants 59%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✓ ★ Hunter Goodman 63%
✓ ★ James Wood 71%
✓ ★ Jonathan Aranda 73%
✓ ★ Miguel Rojas 53%
✓ ★ Nolan Schanuel 68%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
✓ Angels @ Twins YRFI 52%
✗ Astros @ Rangers NRFI 51%
✗ Athletics @ White Sox YRFI 52%
✓ Blue Jays @ Padres YRFI 51%
✓ Braves @ Cardinals NRFI 52%
✗ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) NRFI 51%
✗ Cubs @ Reds YRFI 50%
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers YRFI 50%
✓ Guardians @ Marlins NRFI 55%
✓ Mariners @ Rays NRFI 50%
✗ Phillies @ Tigers YRFI 52%
✗ Red Sox @ Mets NRFI 54%
✓ Rockies @ Giants NRFI 51%
✗ Royals @ Orioles YRFI 55%
✓ Yankees @ Nationals YRFI 54%
F5 O/U
P Angels @ Twins OVER 5.0
✗ Astros @ Rangers OVER 4.5
✗ Athletics @ White Sox OVER 4.75
✓ Blue Jays @ Padres OVER 4.5
✓ Braves @ Cardinals UNDER 4.5
✓ Brewers @ Pirates (G1) OVER 4.5
✗ Cubs @ Reds OVER 4.5
✗ D-backs @ Dodgers UNDER 4.5
✓ Guardians @ Marlins UNDER 4.0
✓ Mariners @ Rays OVER 4.5
✓ Phillies @ Tigers UNDER 5.0
✓ Red Sox @ Mets UNDER 4.0
✓ Rockies @ Giants UNDER 4.5
✓ Royals @ Orioles UNDER 5.5
✗ Yankees @ Nationals OVER 5.5
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✓ Kyle Leahy UNDER 4.5
✗ Nick Martinez OVER 3.5
V Brandon Sproat (G1) OVER 5.5
✓ Luis Castillo UNDER 4.5
✗ Parker Messick OVER 5.5
✗ Luinder Avila OVER 3.5
✗ Brandon Young UNDER 4.5
✓ Chris Sale UNDER 6.5
✗ Shota Imanaga OVER 5.5
✗ Aaron Nola UNDER 5.5
✗ Jack Flaherty UNDER 5.5
✓ Sandy Alcantara OVER 5.5
✗ Ryan Weathers UNDER 5.5
✗ Hunter Greene UNDER 6.5
V Braxton Ashcraft (G1) OVER 6.5
✗ Jacob Lopez OVER 1.5
✓ Sean Burke OVER 5.5
✓ Grayson Rodriguez UNDER 4.5
✓ Sonny Gray UNDER 5.5
✗ Zebby Matthews OVER 5.5
✗ Nolan McLean UNDER 6.5
✓ JP Sears UNDER 3.5
✓ Tanner Gordon UNDER 4.5
✗ Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 4.5
✓ Shane Bieber OVER 3.5
✗ Robbie Ray OVER 4.5
✗ Cal Quantrill OVER 2.5
✓ Hunter Brown UNDER 5.5
V Shohei Ohtani UNDER 6.5
H+R+RBI
✓ Gunnar Henderson UNDER 2.5
V Jake Mangum (G1) UNDER 1.5
✓ Colton Cowser UNDER 1.5
✓ Dominic Canzone UNDER 1.5
✓ Michael Harris II UNDER 2.5
✗ Miguel Rojas UNDER 1.5
✓ Javier Sanoja UNDER 1.5
✗ Joc Pederson UNDER 1.5
✓ Lawrence Butler UNDER 1.5
✗ Yordan Alvarez UNDER 2.5
✓ Cam Smith UNDER 1.5
✗ Shohei Ohtani UNDER 2.5
✗ Kyle Karros UNDER 1.5
Run Line
✓ Guardians @ Marlins AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Royals @ Orioles AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Phillies @ Tigers HOME -1.5 -1.5
✗ Athletics @ White Sox AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ Red Sox @ Mets AWAY +1.5 1.5
✓ D-backs @ Dodgers AWAY +1.5 1.5
✗ Rockies @ Giants HOME -1.5 -1.5
Thu Jul 9 Winners 7/8 Hitters 5/6 NRFI 5/13 F5 7/13 K 14/24 HRR 3/13
Board leansthe model's most-likely calls — starred pick counts, the rest are logged context
Most Likely Winners
✓ Baltimore Orioles 54%
✓ Detroit Tigers 55%
✓ Milwaukee Brewers 55%
✓ New York Mets 57%
✓ Philadelphia Phillies 60%
✓ San Francisco Giants 60%
✗ Tampa Bay Rays 58%
✓ Texas Rangers 56%
Most Likely Hitters★ Best Play
✗ ★ Elly De La Cruz 71%
✓ ★ Fernando Tatis Jr. 76%
✓ ★ Garrett Mitchell 64%
✓ ★ Mauricio Dubón 70%
✓ ★ Nick Loftin 60%
✓ ★ Wade Meckler 66%
Game totalsfirst-inning, first-5 & full-game run totals
NRFI
✗ Angels @ Rangers NRFI 56%
✗ Athletics @ Tigers YRFI 52%
✓ Braves @ Pirates YRFI 53%
✓ Brewers @ Cardinals NRFI 50%
✗ Cubs @ Orioles YRFI 54%
✗ D-backs @ Padres YRFI 52%
✓ Guardians @ Twins NRFI 51%
✓ Mariners @ Marlins NRFI 53%
✗ Phillies @ Reds YRFI 51%
✗ Red Sox @ White Sox YRFI 51%
✗ Rockies @ Giants NRFI 51%
✓ Royals @ Mets YRFI 52%
✗ Yankees @ Rays NRFI 52%
F5 O/U
✓ Angels @ Rangers OVER 3.5
✗ Athletics @ Tigers OVER 5.0
✓ Braves @ Pirates OVER 5.5
✓ Brewers @ Cardinals OVER 4.5
✓ Cubs @ Orioles UNDER 5.5
✗ D-backs @ Padres OVER 5.0
✗ Guardians @ Twins OVER 4.5
✗ Mariners @ Marlins UNDER 4.5
✓ Phillies @ Reds UNDER 5.0
✓ Red Sox @ White Sox UNDER 5.0
✗ Rockies @ Giants UNDER 4.5
✓ Royals @ Mets OVER 5.0
✗ Yankees @ Rays UNDER 4.0
Model propsmodel outputs
Pitcher K
✓ Mitch Keller UNDER 4.5
✓ Bryce Elder UNDER 5.5
✓ Sean Manaea UNDER 6.5
✓ Michael Wacha UNDER 5.5
✓ Trevor Rogers UNDER 5.5
✓ David Peterson UNDER 4.5
✗ Drew Rasmussen OVER 6.5
✓ Bailey Ober OVER 4.5
✓ Anthony Kay UNDER 5.5
✗ Janson Junk UNDER 4.5
✗ Brady Singer OVER 6.5
✗ Framber Valdez UNDER 6.5
✗ Bryce Miller OVER 6.5
✗ Jack Perkins OVER 5.5
✓ Gavin Williams OVER 7.5
✓ Jesús Luzardo OVER 7.5
✓ Andre Pallante UNDER 4.5
✗ Logan Henderson OVER 5.5
✗ Ryan Feltner OVER 3.5
✓ Carson Whisenhunt OVER 3.5
✗ Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5
✗ Merrill Kelly UNDER 4.5
✓ Reid Detmers UNDER 7.5
✓ Nathan Eovaldi OVER 8.5
H+R+RBI
✗ Ryan O'Hearn OVER 1.5
✗ Tyler Tolbert OVER 1.5
✓ Esmerlyn Valdez OVER 1.5
✓ Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5
✗ Blaze Alexander OVER 1.5
✓ Seiya Suzuki OVER 1.5
✗ Dansby Swanson OVER 1.5
✗ Carter Jensen OVER 1.5
✗ Riley Greene OVER 1.5
✗ Pete Alonso OVER 1.5
✗ Jake McCarthy OVER 1.5
✗ Cole Carrigg OVER 1.5
✗ Victor Bericoto OVER 1.5