BallKnowMe
Trust, but verify

What the bet actually costs — and the one way we found to pay less

A sportsbook does not charge you a fee. It charges you in the price. Both sides of a coin flip pay −110 instead of +100, and the difference is the house's cut. You never see it as a line item, so most people never count it.

This page counts it. Then it shows what happens when you take the same bet at the best of several books instead of the first one you opened. That is the whole idea: paying less for the identical bet. It is not a prediction, it is not a system, and it is not an edge over the books.

1 · What the house keeps

The number below is the hold: the share of every dollar bet on a market that the book keeps once both sides are added up. On a market priced the way books price them, it is also, near enough, what a bet costs you on average — 4.29% hold means about $2.15 of a $50 bet, every time, win or lose.

Moneyline Pick the winner, no handicap.
House keeps 4.29% typical book
On $50 $2.15 per bet
200 bets $429 a season
Run line The favorite gives 1.5 runs, the underdog takes them.
House keeps 4.50% typical book
On $50 $2.25 per bet
200 bets $450 a season
Total (over/under) Both teams' runs added up, over or under a posted number.
House keeps 4.75% typical book
On $50 $2.38 per bet
200 bets $475 a season
First 5 innings — winner Who is ahead after five innings. A bet on the starting pitchers.
House keeps 6.09% typical book
On $50 $3.04 per bet
200 bets $609 a season
First 5 innings — total Runs scored in the first five innings, over or under.
House keeps 6.47% typical book
On $50 $3.23 per bet
200 bets $647 a season
No run first inning Whether the first inning is scoreless.
House keeps 6.00% typical book
On $50 $3.00 per bet
200 bets $600 a season
Measured by us over 9,856–11,819 completed games per market. The dollar figures assume every bet is $50 and that the book's margin sits on each side in proportion to its price — the standard assumption, and the same one every fair-value number on this site already uses. It is straight multiplication, not a bankroll model. Your own results will swing far wider than this in either direction; the cut is the part that does not swing.

2 · What taking the best price does to it

Books do not post the same number. On any given game one is a point better on the favorite and another is a point better on the dog. Take the best available price on the side you already wanted, and the cut you pay drops — same game, same bet, same stake.

Market One book Best of books You keep
Moneyline 4.29% 2.84% $145
Run line 4.50% 3.17% $133
Total (over/under) 4.75% 3.60% $115
First 5 innings — winner 6.09% 3.43% $266
First 5 innings — total 6.47% 3.39% $308
No run first inning 6.00% 3.03% $297

Read the last column as: on 200 bets of $50, that is what stays in your pocket instead of the book's. On the moneyline the cut falls by about a third (4.29% → 2.84%). On a no-run-first-inning bet it falls by half (6.00% → 3.03%) — the markets books price laziest are the ones where shopping is worth the most.

What this does not do: it does not make a losing bet win, and it does not turn a negative into a positive. A market that cost you 4.29% now costs you 2.84%. Still a cost. The bet still has to be right on its own merits. Shopping only decides how much you hand over for the privilege of making it.

3 · Why this, and not a pick

We built models for all of it — moneyline, totals, run line, first five innings, first-inning runs — and then measured them against the closing market over thousands of games. None of them beat the market. The market price was as good as or better than our number, which is the ordinary result and the one most sites do not publish.

So we are not going to tell you we found an edge. What survived measurement was this: the price you pay is not fixed, and the difference between the best price and a typical one is real, repeatable, and provable from the books' own posted numbers. It requires no forecast of any kind. That is why it is the thing we put in front of you.

Our models still run, and the picks they produce are still on the board with their record shown in full — wins and losses at the same size. Treat them as research to check, not as instructions to follow. That is what "trust, but verify" means here.

4 · Today's board, actually priced

The 15 games on 2026-09-13, priced across 5 books we can see. These are the games where the books disagree most right now — one market per game, the one where shopping is worth the most.

New York Mets @ New York Yankees NRFI 4 books · 5.65% → 2.12% cut
No run −120 DraftKings vs −135 typical +$4.63 on $50 seen 32 min ago
Run scores +110 Caesars vs +106 typical +$2.00 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Same bet either way. The gain is what a winning $50 ticket pays back on top of the typical book's price.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers NRFI 4 books · 5.64% → 2.12% cut
No run −120 FanDuel vs −132 typical +$3.79 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Run scores +110 Caesars vs +105 typical +$2.50 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Same bet either way. The gain is what a winning $50 ticket pays back on top of the typical book's price.
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics F5 moneyline 5 books · 6.34% → 2.91% cut
Athletics +102 FanDuel vs −105 typical +$3.38 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Mariners −115 BetMGM vs −125 typical +$3.48 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Same bet either way. The gain is what a winning $50 ticket pays back on top of the typical book's price.
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals NRFI 4 books · 6.23% → 3.05% cut
No run −105 DraftKings vs −114 typical +$3.76 on $50
Run scores −108 FanDuel vs −114 typical +$2.44 on $50 seen 29 min ago
Same bet either way. The gain is what a winning $50 ticket pays back on top of the typical book's price.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox F5 moneyline 5 books · 5.56% → 2.66% cut
Red Sox −166 DraftKings vs −180 typical +$2.34 on $50
Royals +148 FanDuel vs +140 typical +$4.00 on $50
Same bet either way. The gain is what a winning $50 ticket pays back on top of the typical book's price.

Today's whole slate, by market

The median game on today's board, market by market. These are today's numbers — a single day is noisy, and they will not match the multi-season figures above exactly. Both are shown so you can see the difference.

Market Games One book Best of books
Moneyline 15 4.16% 3.37%
Total (over/under) 15 4.44% 3.44%
Run line 15 4.27% 3.30%
No run first inning 15 5.99% 3.48%
First 5 innings — total 15 6.13% 5.08%
First 5 innings — winner 15 5.86% 4.30%

Books priced on this board right now:

BetMGMCaesarsDraftKingsESPN BETFanDuel
Generated 2026-09-13 12:24:02. A quote older than 90 minutes does not set a headline price here, and anything we show that is not fresh says when it was seen. We list only books you could actually place the bet at — a sharper price at a book you cannot use is not a price.

5 · How many books is it worth having

Measured on today's own moneyline prices, across 15 games quoted by all 4 books. Each row is what you would pay holding exactly that many accounts, averaged over every combination of books — because nobody knows in advance which book will be best, and it changes game to game.

Accounts Cut you pay On $50 Of the gain
1 book 4.15% $2.07 0%
2 books 3.62% $1.81 68%
3 books 3.42% $1.71 95%
4 books 3.37% $1.69 100%

The shape is always the same: the second account does most of the work, the third adds a useful slice, and after that each one buys less than the one before. Two is worth doing today, three or four is the practical ceiling for most people, and past that you are opening accounts for a shrinking return.

Today's slate only, and one day is a small sample — the ranking of the rows is stable, the exact percentages are not. Which books are available to you depends on your state.

6 · The catch, stated plainly

A price you saw is not a price you have. Lines move on lineup news, weather and money. Everything on this page is a snapshot of when we last saw each book, and we print that time next to it for exactly this reason. Confirm the number in the book's own app before you put money on it.

Cheaper is not the same as good. Getting a better price on a bet you should not be making is still a bet you should not be making. Shopping changes the cost, never the merit.

The same bet means the same number. A total of 8.5 and a total of 9 are different bets, and comparing them invents a saving that does not exist. Every comparison on this page is made at one number, and a book quoting a different number simply does not appear in it.

We cannot see every book. We show the ones we have prices for. There may be a better number somewhere we do not cover, and there are markets where too few books quote the same number for any comparison to be honest — on those we say nothing rather than guess.