BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

Power Ratings — 2021 50 teams

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ALL FBS FCS Show all

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), opponent-adjusted, FBS and FCS on one scale. Point-in-time and calibrated (walk-forward ECE 0.037), but a model rating — not a betting edge.

#TeamDivConferencePowerOff (higher = better)Def (higher = better)
1 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +28.0 +11.3 +16.7
2 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +24.2 +15.2 +9.0
3 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +21.6 +17.9 +3.7
4 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +20.1 +10.6 +9.5
5 Cincinnati FBS Big 12 Conference +20.0 +9.2 +10.8
6 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +18.3 +9.3 +9.0
7 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +17.6 +6.0 +11.6
8 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +17.1 +9.8 +7.4
9 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +16.6 +8.8 +7.8
10 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +16.0 +2.6 +13.4
11 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +15.5 +11.0 +4.5
12 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +15.4 +4.4 +11.0
13 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +15.1 +11.6 +3.5
14 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +14.7 +6.6 +8.1
15 Wake Forest FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +14.6 +14.2 +0.4
16 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +14.4 +2.8 +11.6
17 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +14.4 +2.7 +11.7
18 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +14.2 +2.8 +11.3
19 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +14.1 +7.2 +6.8
20 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +14.0 +9.1 +4.9
21 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +14.0 +5.6 +8.4
22 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +13.6 +14.5 -0.8
23 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +13.2 +6.9 +6.3
24 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +13.2 +4.5 +8.6
25 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +13.1 +7.4 +5.7
26 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +12.7 +6.1 +6.6
27 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +12.4 +5.6 +6.8
28 Air Force FBS Mountain West Conference +12.2 +5.2 +7.0
29 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +12.0 +2.4 +9.6
30 Sam Houston FBS Conference USA +11.8 +9.3 +2.5
31 Louisiana FBS Sun Belt Conference +11.7 +3.1 +8.6
32 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +11.6 +7.6 +4.0
33 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +11.5 +10.4 +1.2
34 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +11.2 +1.1 +10.1
35 Minnesota FBS Big Ten Conference +11.1 +1.8 +9.3
36 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +11.0 +10.8 +0.3
37 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +10.5 +3.6 +6.9
38 Purdue FBS Big Ten Conference +10.4 +4.6 +5.8
39 Coastal Carolina FBS Sun Belt Conference +10.2 +7.7 +2.5
40 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +9.9 +10.8 -0.9
41 Arizona State FBS Big 12 Conference +9.8 +2.6 +7.3
42 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +9.7 +6.5 +3.2
43 Liberty FBS Conference USA +9.6 +5.2 +4.4
44 UAB FBS American Conference +9.5 +4.1 +5.3
45 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +9.4 +5.6 +3.8
46 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +9.1 +10.5 -1.4
47 Missouri State FBS Conference USA +9.1 +7.8 +1.3
48 Nebraska FBS Big Ten Conference +9.1 +2.6 +6.5
49 San Diego State FBS Mountain West Conference +9.0 +0.6 +8.4
50 Kennesaw State FBS Conference USA +8.7 +2.7 +6.0

SRS — season 2021 reference

The prior per-season opponent-adjusted-margin rating, kept for comparison. Season-final only (no preseason or point-in-time), which is why the rewrite replaced it as the headline number.

#TeamDivConferenceSRSOff (higher = better)Def (lower = better)
1 Georgia FBS Southeastern Conference +40.4 +25.2 -31.9
2 Alabama FBS Southeastern Conference +34.9 +27.4 -22.0
3 Ohio State FBS Big Ten Conference +34.5 +33.4 -18.3
4 Michigan FBS Big Ten Conference +34.2 +24.4 -24.2
5 Notre Dame FBS FBS Independents +30.5 +21.5 -21.1
6 Cincinnati FBS Big 12 Conference +29.9 +18.7 -20.4
7 Oklahoma State FBS Big 12 Conference +29.7 +18.0 -24.8
8 Utah FBS Big 12 Conference +29.4 +21.3 -18.7
9 Michigan State FBS Big Ten Conference +27.4 +18.2 -18.2
10 Penn State FBS Big Ten Conference +27.0 +13.5 -24.1
11 Wisconsin FBS Big Ten Conference +26.9 +15.2 -24.3
12 Pittsburgh FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +26.6 +22.7 -15.6
13 Baylor FBS Big 12 Conference +26.4 +15.7 -23.3
14 Oklahoma FBS Southeastern Conference +25.8 +23.7 -16.0
15 Clemson FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.8 +11.2 -25.1
16 Iowa State FBS Big 12 Conference +25.8 +18.9 -20.2
17 NC State FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.7 +16.3 -19.7
18 Ole Miss FBS Southeastern Conference +25.4 +19.4 -17.2
19 Wake Forest FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +25.2 +24.3 -9.7
20 Texas A&M FBS Southeastern Conference +24.6 +12.9 -22.7
21 Boise State FBS Mountain West Conference +24.3 +13.7 -19.1
22 Western Kentucky FBS Conference USA +24.1 +24.4 -6.4
23 Kansas State FBS Big 12 Conference +23.7 +12.5 -21.6
24 UCLA FBS Big Ten Conference +23.6 +21.6 -11.8
25 Kentucky FBS Southeastern Conference +23.6 +16.4 -17.2
26 Purdue FBS Big Ten Conference +23.5 +16.9 -19.4
27 Arkansas FBS Southeastern Conference +23.3 +16.1 -17.4
28 Minnesota FBS Big Ten Conference +23.3 +12.6 -21.7
29 Iowa FBS Big Ten Conference +22.7 +11.7 -21.9
30 Air Force FBS Mountain West Conference +21.8 +13.4 -14.8
31 Nebraska FBS Big Ten Conference +21.4 +15.3 -19.8
32 Tennessee FBS Southeastern Conference +21.2 +24.3 -10.3
33 Houston FBS Big 12 Conference +21.2 +15.1 -14.0
34 BYU FBS Big 12 Conference +21.0 +16.7 -13.3
35 Oregon FBS Big Ten Conference +20.9 +17.3 -13.9
36 Arizona State FBS Big 12 Conference +20.9 +11.8 -17.6
37 App State FBS Sun Belt Conference +20.9 +14.5 -14.2
38 Auburn FBS Southeastern Conference +20.4 +15.1 -18.1
39 SMU FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.6 +19.1 -8.2
40 Oregon State FBS Pac-12 Conference +19.6 +15.8 -12.8
41 Texas FBS Southeastern Conference +19.5 +22.1 -10.1
42 Louisville FBS Atlantic Coast Conference +19.5 +16.8 -12.8
43 James Madison FBS Sun Belt Conference +19.5 +13.1 -12.2
44 Utah State FBS Mountain West Conference +19.4 +15.1 -10.6
45 Louisiana FBS Sun Belt Conference +19.2 +9.9 -16.5
46 San Diego State FBS Mountain West Conference +18.9 +8.5 -16.4
47 Nevada FBS Mountain West Conference +18.8 +18.2 -8.5
48 Florida FBS Southeastern Conference +18.7 +14.3 -14.2
49 Fresno State FBS Mountain West Conference +18.7 +13.6 -13.7
50 LSU FBS Southeastern Conference +18.7 +13.7 -14.5

Elo — live 2025 · week 16

#TeamDivElo
1 Indiana FBS 1883
2 Ohio State FBS 1866
3 Oregon FBS 1848
4 Georgia FBS 1843
5 Notre Dame FBS 1840
6 Texas Tech FBS 1801
7 Ole Miss FBS 1798
8 Miami FBS 1780
9 James Madison FBS 1779
10 Texas FBS 1760
11 Utah FBS 1752
12 Alabama FBS 1738
13 BYU FBS 1733
14 SMU FBS 1729
15 Texas A&M FBS 1728
16 Vanderbilt FBS 1717
17 Iowa FBS 1713
18 Oklahoma FBS 1708
19 Tulane FBS 1697
20 USC FBS 1695
21 Penn State FBS 1694
22 Louisville FBS 1681
23 Washington FBS 1679
24 Michigan FBS 1677
25 Navy FBS 1673

Independent check — SP+ reference, not an input

SP+ is built by someone else from different inputs. Showing it beside our number is the point: two honest estimates, and where they disagree you can see it instead of taking our word for it. Nothing here is fitted to agree with SP+ — it is a yardstick, never an input. Across the 129 teams both systems rate, rank agreement is 0.96 (1.00 = identical order).

Where we disagree most

TeamSP+ rankOur rank (same FBS field)Gap
Tennessee #10 #38 +28 (we're lower)
Air Force #54 #27 -27 (we're higher)
Utah State #80 #54 -26 (we're higher)
Wake Forest #39 #14 -25 (we're higher)
Miami #32 #56 +24 (we're lower)
San José State #85 #108 +23 (we're lower)
Texas Tech #40 #62 +22 (we're lower)
Mississippi State #34 #55 +21 (we're lower)

SP+ top 25

#TeamSP+OffDef (lower = better)Our rank (same FBS field)
1 Georgia +32.0 41.4 10.3 #1
2 Ohio State +29.3 47.2 20.6 #3
3 Alabama +26.0 40.9 15.6 #2
4 Michigan +23.4 36.5 15.8 #4
5 Cincinnati +21.2 37.5 15.9 #5
6 Texas A&M +21.1 33.6 14.9 #17
7 Wisconsin +20.1 29.8 10.8 #15
8 Clemson +18.7 28.3 11.6 #9
9 Pittsburgh +17.6 38.2 21.4 #10
10 Tennessee +17.5 39.4 23.8 #38
11 Notre Dame +17.4 36.2 18.9 #6
12 Oklahoma State +17.2 30.6 14.3 #7
13 Oklahoma +16.8 41.1 25.6 #12
14 NC State +16.1 33.1 17.7 #20
15 Baylor +15.6 33.1 17.1 #11
16 Utah +15.2 37.2 20.7 #8
17 Ole Miss +14.8 36.8 22.4 #19
18 Minnesota +14.4 29.3 15.4 #33
19 Iowa State +14.3 33.8 20.2 #13
19 Penn State +14.3 28.0 14.6 #16
21 Kansas State +14.2 33.5 19.0 #28
22 Arkansas +13.8 34.3 21.3 #25
23 Kentucky +13.4 35.1 22.3 #26
24 Western Kentucky +13.3 40.5 28.8 #21
25 Coastal Carolina +13.2 39.5 26.1 #37