← Matchups

Toledo

MAC · 1-1 · power +14.5 · #57
Our numberTOL -8.5 no book has priced this game

Ohio

MAC · 1-1 · power +5.7 · #113
Our side
MoneylineTOL to win ours 34%
Projected score 30–22 TOL – OHIO
2026-11-27 · 12:00 PM Peden Stadium · Athens, OH MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Toledo lead 30–13–1 · 44 meetings since 1962
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 40 ranks apart
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offense Ohio Bobcats #110 run defense
Pass game even 39 ranks apart
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offense Ohio Bobcats #105 pass defense
Run game even 43 ranks apart
Ohio Bobcats #66 rush offense Toledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass game edge Toledo Rockets 151 ranks
Ohio Bobcats #155 pass offense Toledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Toledo Rockets Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Ohio Bobcats Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 70 rush ypg
Robert Weiner · 0-1 John Hauser · 1-0

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Toledo Rockets
LB Isaac Zay 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #14 LB
DL Andrew Zock 9 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #68 DL
WR Adjatay Dabbs 8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD #59 WR
RB Connor Walendzak 110 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #67 RB
Ohio Bobcats
DL Ike Ackerman 13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #34 DL
DL Tyler Gillison 6 tkl · 1.5 TFL #117 DL
WR Riley Neer 10 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD #74 WR
LB Jack Fries 19 tkl · 0.5 TFL #82 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Toledo RocketsMAC +14.5 +6.8 +7.6 #57
Ohio BobcatsMAC +5.7 +3.1 +2.6 #113

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Toledo offense vs Ohio defense+4.2 pts
Ohio offense vs Toledo defense-4.5 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 3 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.